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Nine months away from kickoff feels like an eternity, doesn’t it? Yet here we are, gearing up for the 2025 NFL fantasy football season with some fresh eyes and even fresher data. In this fifth season of “Yays and Nays” on Opta Analyst, we’re shaking up the usual advice by putting cold, hard numbers against the expert consensus—sometimes confirming what you already suspect, and other times flipping the script entirely. Who will surprise you in Week 1? And who might be riding a hype train headed straight for a bench spot? If you think you know your start-sits, think again—because when the defending champs, the Philadelphia Eagles, face off against a Dallas squad missing Micah Parsons, every pick counts a little differently in the eyes of the data. Ready to challenge the norm and get an edge that could win your league? Let’s dive in. LEARN MORE

In our 2025 NFL Week 1 fantasy football start and sit, we let the data give another perspective that likely varies from the overall expert picks.

Yays and Nays enters its fifth season as a weekly article on Opta Analyst.

To our longtime readers, thank you. To our new readers, welcome! Regardless of which group you fall into, with nine months between fantasy seasons, let’s start with a refresher. Each week, we’ll highlight the players our fantasy football model points to as being too high or too low compared to industry consensus.

Here’s how the model works. With the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles kicking us off against the Dallas Cowboys (a team suddenly without Micah Parsons), let’s get right into it.

The Week 1 Fantasy Football Yays: Players Projected to Overperform Consensus Rankings

Note: We’re comparing our rankings to the expert consensus rankings (ECR) from Fantasy Pros. These rankings update throughout the week (we pulled these numbers from Thursday). Once again, we are using PPR unless noted otherwise. 

Trevor Lawrence, QB (JAX) vs CAR (ECR: 11, Our Rank: QB5, Projected Points: 19.11)

It’s now or never for Trevor Lawrence to make the leap. With a new head coach in Liam Coen who helped rejuvenate Baker Mayfield’s career, a backfield triumvirate that might be better than the sum of its parts, and the No. 2 overall pick in Travis Hunter projected as the WR2 opposite last year’s breakout rookie Brian Thomas Jr., things are stacked in Lawrence’s favor.

And while one game doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to have an awesome season, starting against the Carolina Panthers is a nice launching pad. Remember, the Panthers allowed more than two passing touchdowns per game last season and the most points in a season ever.

If the Jacksonville Jaguars want to overtake the Houston Texans for the AFC South title, it starts in Week 1. Lawrence is an elite option in the opening week, alongside all the big hitters at the position with only Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Jayden Daniels projected for more points.

Aaron Jones Sr., RB (MIN) vs CHI (ECR: 24, Our Rank: RB14, Projected Points: 13.87)

In seasons that he’s played at least 14 games, Jones has finished no worse than the RB14. He’s 30 now, with a highly touted backup in Jordan Mason threatening his playing time and his stock is continuously dropping. But here’s the thing: he’s still pretty good.

He had at least 14 touches in all but two games last season, and at least 75 scrimmage yards in 13 of the 17 games he played. Overall, he finished ninth in the NFL in rushing yards while also surpassing 400 receiving yards for the second time in his career.

It’s J.J. McCarthy’s first game for the Minnesota Vikings, and with Jordan Addison suspended and Justin Jefferson with a mild hamstring strain, it’s more than reasonable to assume a run-heavy game plan, with running back dump-offs being McCarthy’s best friend. Jones is a solid RB2 this week.

Courtland Sutton, WR (DEN) vs TEN (ECR: 20, Our Rank: WR13, Projected Points: 14.78)

Ja’Marr Chase. Mike Evans. Amon-Ra St. Brown. Jordan Addison (!!!). Tyreek Hill. That is the entire list of players with more receiving touchdowns than Sutton since the start of the 2023 season.

Why does that matter? Well, Sutton has the highest projected touchdowns of any wide receiver in Week 1 according to our projections. Of course, that shouldn’t come as much of a surprise since he’s third among wide receivers in projected touchdowns for the 2025 season.

There is real buzz surrounding the Denver Broncos this season as a sneaky contender, with people assuming a second-year leap from Bo Nix. Sutton is his clear No. 1 wide receiver. Against the Tennessee Titans in Week 1, a team that allowed the seventh-most points in the NFL in 2024, Sutton is a top-tier WR2.

Deebo Samuel Sr., WR (WSH) vs NYG (ECR: 34, Our Rank: WR22, Projected Points: 13.45)

Maybe lost in the shuffle of the offseason, Samuel is no longer on the San Francisco 49ers. He’s now a Washington Commander and if you were to pick the offensive system that best suits Samuel outside of Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers offense, the Commanders with Kliff Kingsbury would be near the top of the list.

Jayden Daniels was fourth in screen passes last season, and with the Commanders recently jettisoning Brian Robinson, it is a safe bet that Deebo will see some snaps in the backfield while also likely having a couple short throws schemed up for him. Samuel is the only wide receiver projected for more than one rushing attempt and 10 or more rushing yards.

On top of the scheme fit, the New York Giants may possess the game’s best pass rush meaning quick throws will be even more prevalent for this week. Samuel, the premier yards after catch player of the last half decade, is built for games like this. He’s a borderline WR2 this week.

The Week 1 Fantasy Football Nays: Players Projected to Underperform Consensus Rankings

Drake Maye, QB (NE) vs LV (ECR: 10, Our Rank: QB23, Projected Points: 13.75)

There are lots of reasons to be optimistic about the New England Patriots, and it starts with new head coach Mike Vrabel. Compared to Jarod Mayo, this should be a much better coached and much more competitive football team. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be a better offensive team.

Maye played 10 true games last season. The Pats were 1-9, never surpassed 24 points, and Maye had 10 interceptions in those 10 games. With Rhamondre Stevenson and new rookie TreVeyon Henderson, this is going to be a run-heavy offense.

Oh, and in Vrabel’s six seasons with the Tennessee Titans (2018-2023), the following were his team’s season-long finishes in passing attempts: 31st, 31st, 30th, 25th, 30th, 30th. Sense a pattern here? Maye is projected for the third fewest passing attempts in Week 1, and he falls outside our top-20 quarterbacks.

Tyrone Tracy, RB (NYG) vs WSH (ECR: 26, Our Rank: RB33, Projected Points: 8.93)

In his final seven games last season, Tracy did not surpass 60 rushing yards once. In those games, he only scored two rushing touchdowns. In the other five, Tracy averaged fewer than 10 PPR points per game.

In a backfield that is much more likely to be a committee, with rookie Cam Skattebo the young, exciting option, Tracy is essentially touchdown-dependent to provide decent fantasy value. And well, sadly, the Giants offense isn’t exactly one our model is projecting as particularly lethal or explosive.

Ranked below players like RJ Harvey, Dylan Sampson and Jaylen Warren, Tracy is better left on benches unless you play in a deeper league.

CeeDee Lamb, WR (DAL) vs PHI (ECR: 3, Our Rank: WR14, Projected Points: 14.69)

The best player on our Nay list, there’s always a chance that the model is wrong because outstanding players can make one play and completely salvage a performance. He’s an elite wide receiver on a team that is projected to score a lot of points this season.

But this season is not this week. Lamb played one game against the Eagles last season. His final stat line? Six receptions, 21 yards and zero touchdowns.

With the addition of George Pickens, it’s also more than possible that he takes away some of the targets from Lamb – the NFL’s leader in targets over the last two seasons. Facing the defending champs, led by Quinyon Mitchell, Cooper DeJean and a ferocious pass rush, Lamb is still a player who will be in your starting lineups, but expectations should be tempered.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR (ARI) vs NO (ECR: 18, Our Rank: WR32, Projected Points: 12.09)

We wrote about Marvin Harrison Jr. in our Preseason Yays and Nays piece and everything in that article from two weeks ago remains true today. His ranking in the industry is a projection. He is WR18 on reputation and the hope that the Cardinals will utilize him more, in more creative ways.

Harrison Jr. finished as a top-17 weekly wide receiver only three times last season. He had five games with fewer than six PPR points. Until he and the Cardinals show us something different, even against a team like the New Orleans Saints, Harrison is a Flex play at best.

Didn’t see the names you were after? Be sure to check out our full Week 1 fantasy football projections. And follow along on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X for more.

The post Fantasy Football Week 1 Start ’Em, Sit ’Em: Our Yays and Nays vs. Consensus Rankings appeared first on Opta Analyst.