Ravens vs. Bills: The Surprising Factor That Could Decide This AFC Championship Showdown

Could it be that this Sunday night’s showdown in Buffalo is less a mere opener and more a clandestine dress rehearsal for the AFC Championship? The Opta supercomputer serves up a subtle spoiler: it pins the Baltimore Ravens with the top odds to win the Super Bowl and slots the Buffalo Bills at a respectable third. Meanwhile, two quarterbacks—Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen—stand on eerily parallel paths, packed with talent, MVP hardware, and still haunted by playoff heartbreaks. It’s almost poetic how both are knocking on the door to the big prize, yet neither has stepped quite through it. So, with stakes this high and narratives this rich, who truly holds the edge? Dive in as we unpack the intriguing layers behind these titans’ quest for glory — from revamped playing styles to strategic matchups and injury shakeups that might tip the scales. You might just find the season’s first game means way more than Sunday night lights. LEARN MORE.

The Opta supercomputer gives the Baltimore Ravens the best chance of winning the Super Bowl, and it has the Buffalo Bills with the third-best odds. What does that mean for an opening-night showdown in Buffalo?

Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have widely been portrayed as rivals, but the franchise quarterbacks find themselves in a nearly identical position entering the 2025 season.

It’s time to win a ring.

Allen and Jackson have been dominant over the last several regular seasons, with Jackson winning two NFL MVP awards and Allen claiming his first last year. Both have won over 69% of their regular-season starts and have proven to be dynamic threats both in the air and on the ground.

But all the accolades and statistics feel increasingly insignificant as the playoff losses pile up.

Allen is 7-6 in playoff starts but has yet to take his Buffalo Bills to the Super Bowl, repeatedly coming up just short in a way reminiscent of the franchise’s four consecutive Super Bowl losses in the 1990s.

Jackson is 3-5 in the playoffs, and his Baltimore Ravens have been eliminated by Allen’s Bills twice in the last five years, including a heartbreaking 27-25 loss in the divisional round last postseason.

Obviously, quarterbacks are not solely responsible for the outcomes of games, and the validity of the “QB wins” stats has been hotly debated. But most of the great quarterbacks eventually play in a Super Bowl, if not win one.

The stage is set for Jackson and Allen to face off against one another in the national spotlight on Sunday Night Football, with both carrying the highest expectations into the season opener at Buffalo’s Highmark Stadium.

The Opta supercomputer gives the Bills the best chance of winning the Super Bowl (as of Friday) at 11.6%, and it lists the Ravens with the second-best odds of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in February at 11.1%.

And it is no surprise that Jackson is the consensus favorite to win his third MVP this season at 5-to-1 odds. Allen is just behind at about 6-to-1 odds.

Neither quarterback can answer the looming questions about playoff performance in Week 1, but Sunday’s game will have two of the league’s most exciting players on full display.

Is This the New Josh Allen?

No team relies more on one player than the Bills lean on Allen, and he repeatedly has risen to the challenge and continues to improve.

Allen, once thought of as a risk-and-reward gunslinger, has made dramatic improvements in ball security and was one of the steadiest quarterbacks in 2024.

The Bills committed an NFL-low eight turnovers last season, and Allen threw just six interceptions, down from 18 in 2023. The other two turnovers were lost fumbles by Allen, but neither occurred after Week 4.

Turnover luck is known to regress toward the mean, and Allen’s interception total may jump back up into the double-digits, where it has been for most of his career.

Fumbles are notoriously inconsistent – as the oblong ball tends to bounce in funny directions – and the Bills will probably lose more than two fumbles in 2025.

But there is evidence that Allen’s ball security last season was more than luck.

Let us explain.

We analyze every pass from every game and track “pickable passes,” which are throws that are deemed pickable – an average NFL-level defender had a reasonable chance of intercepting them.

This accounts for defenders dropping picks or otherwise misplaying a risky pass, and it can show when a quarterback is taking more risks than his box-score stats would indicate.

(Adjusted attempts don’t include spikes or throwaways)

As you can see, Allen has consistently made strides over the last two seasons to eliminate unnecessarily risky passes. His playing style has substantially evolved.

If anything is a statistical outlier, it is his career-high 18 interceptions in 2023, which came on just 19 pickable passes.

Allen’s fumbles have also been declining. After averaging 10.4 fumbles per year over his first five seasons, he had seven in 2023 and five in 2024.

That improvement can be attributed to Allen’s improved pocket awareness, leading to a dramatic reduction in sacks. He was dropped a league-low 14 times in 2024, well ahead of the Green Bay Packers (22), Baltimore Ravens (24) and Denver Broncos (24).

The blame for sacks is often laid at the feet of the offensive line, but the best quarterbacks can identify pressure, understand the strengths and weaknesses of their protection and quickly find a “hot” receiver to unload the ball to.

And it certainly helps that the Bills are projected to have the eighth-best pass protection unit in the NFL this season, according to our preseason team ratings.

Regardless, Allen is athletic enough to avoid rushers, but scramble-prone quarterbacks are not always the least-sacked ones. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, for instance, were great at avoiding sacks despite having concrete feet because they knew where pressure was coming from and were willing to throw the ball away.

Allen now has a similar mastery, but he can also run away from defenders or make them miss in the pocket. While he may lose more than two fumbles this season, gone are the days of Allen putting the ball on the ground more than anyone, as he did from 2018-22 (52 fumbles).

So is this a new Josh Allen?

To some extent, yes.

Allen is still an improviser at heart, and he will still treat an NFL field like a playground – running wild, bouncing off defenders, throwing with different arm angles and looking for highlight plays – like Brett Favre in Cam Newton’s body.

But Sean McDermott and his staff have done a good job teaching Allen to cut down on the riskiest of plays without limiting the abilities that make him great.

Lamar, Ravens Are a Defense’s Nightmare

As great as Allen was last season, Jackson easily could have won his third MVP award. He set career highs in passing yards (4,172), touchdown passes (41) and yards per attempt (8.8), all while throwing just four interceptions.

The fact that some analysts and scouts wanted a young Jackson to try out as a wide receiver at the NFL Scouting Combine has become a punchline as he’s paired top-tier skills from the pocket with his signature speed.

That combination has driven opposing coaches crazy as they try to find a game plan to slow him down, and the Ravens took another leap forward offensively last season with the addition of Derrick Henry.

With Henry, Baltimore’s running game was one for the ages, gaining 3,189 yards on the ground – the second most in NFL history. That doesn’t bode well for a Buffalo team that projects to have the ninth-worst run defense in 2025, per our preseason team ratings.

The team with the most rushing yards of all time? The Ravens in 2019, when Jackson set the quarterback rushing record.

When facing a running game that good, opposing coaches like to sneak extra defenders closer to the line of scrimmage. The Ravens faced a “heavy box” – when there are more defenders than blockers within 7 yards of the line of scrimmage – on 52.5% of their plays last season (sixth most in the league).

Defensive coordinators even upped the intensity by sending plenty of blitzes, hoping to disrupt plays before they had a chance to begin. Baltimore faced a blitz on 41.9% of its snaps last season, the highest rate in the NFL and well above the league average of 31.2%.

None of these schemes slowed down Jackson and the Ravens. Despite facing extra defenders near the line, Baltimore still gashed opponents for big plays.

Blitzing defenses didn’t do any better against the pass than they did against the run. Jackson remained unfazed, throwing 16 touchdowns to three interceptions while averaging 9.1 yards per attempt when opponents blitzed.

Only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (126.93), Minnesota Vikings (125.67) and Detroit Lions (119.66) had higher passer ratings against the blitz than Jackson and Baltimore’s 119.39 rating.

So how do you stop or even slow Lamar?

The Bills might have caught a few lucky breaks for this matchup.

The Ravens’ favorite personnel grouping last season featured one running back, two tight ends and two wide receivers (commonly referred to as “12” personnel), but some early season injuries may steer them away from that.

Isaiah Likely, a starting-worthy tight end who is second on the depth chart behind Mark Andrews, has been ruled out due to a foot injury. Charlie Kolar could be called upon to play more snaps than usual, but he has 20 catches in three career seasons.

Patrick Ricard, the 300-pound fullback who is one of the NFL’s best lead blockers and is also used as a backup tight end at times, is also out due to a calf injury.

With Likely and Ricard out, the Ravens are more likely to line up in three-receiver sets, an easier matchup for the Bills’ nickel-happy (five defensive backs) style.

It’s a small advantage, but against the best and most dynamic quarterbacks on the planet, the defenses will take all the help they can get.

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Ravens 50.7%

So does all this mean the Bills will win Sunday night? The supercomputer lands slightly on the side of the Ravens (as of Friday), giving them a 50.7% probability of stealing the opener on the road.

Baltimore has been one of the league’s best teams in Week 1, going 12-5 in openers since 2008 (only the Eagles at 15-3 have a better record over that span).

Initially, the sportsbooks disagreed in their NFL picks, as Buffalo opened as 1.5-point favorites. The line has since shifted, however, and Baltimore is now listed in most places as 1.0- or 1.5-point road favorites.

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