NFC Showdown: Can the Underdog Commanders Upset the Packers and Shift the Playoff Power?

You ever wonder if the NFL schedulers are secretly masterminds brewing up early-season thrillers just to mess with our heads? Because here we are—less than a week into 2025, and bam!—a showdown that might very well tip the scales of the NFC race. The defending champs, the Philadelphia Eagles, have already flexed their wings, but it’s Thursday Night Football bringing us a heavyweight tussle between the two teams the Opta supercomputer sees as the fiercest contenders to Philly’s throne: the Washington Commanders and the Green Bay Packers. With the Packers edging out the Eagles by a whisker in Super Bowl probability and the Commanders lurking just behind, this clash at Lambeau Field is no mere early-season footnote—it’s a high-stakes chess match where a 2-0 conference start could make all the difference come playoff time. So, buckle up, because this isn’t just football—it’s the opening gambit in a battle for NFC supremacy that promises to keep us talking all season long. LEARN MORE

The two NFL teams the Opta supercomputer predicts will challenge the Eagles for NFC supremacy and a berth in the Super Bowl square off on Thursday Night Football.

The 2025 NFL season is not even a week old, and we already have a game that could go a long way in determining playoff seedings.

Well done, schedule makers, well done.

The defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles opened the season last Thursday by grinding out a 24-20 victory over the rival Dallas Cowboys.

On Thursday Night Football this week, the two teams the Opta supercomputer predicts will challenge the Eagles for NFC supremacy and a berth in the Super Bowl square off when the Washington Commanders and Green Bay Packers clash at Lambeau Field.

In 2024, the Eagles ended the seasons for both the Packers and Commanders. Philadelphia defeated Green Bay 22-10 in an NFC wild-card game and throttled Washington 55-23 in the conference championship two weeks later.

Our supercomputer believes the Packers have the best chance of any NFC team to reach the Super Bowl, calculating their probability of playing for the Lombardi Trophy at 19.4% – just a tick better than the Eagles at 19.3%. The Commanders aren’t far behind at 13.3% – the only other NFC team with a greater than 10% chance of playing for the championship, according to the projections.

Highest Probability of Reaching the Super Bowl Among NFC Teams

With both the Packers and Commanders poised to make deep playoff runs, this meeting is extremely important, as the winner will not only hold the first tiebreaker in the case of identical records with a head-to-head victory but will also improve to 2-0 within the conference to gain an edge against other NFC contenders come playoff time.

Before we get too far ahead of ourselves and worry about mid-January, though, let’s bring it back to the second week of September.

What Will Micah Parsons and the Green Bay Defense Do for an Encore?

Things went about as well as Packers fans could’ve imagined in Week 1.

The offense was efficient early, the newest acquisition to the defense gave a glimpse of his dominance and the Chicago Bears lost. (But that came at the expense of a Minnesota Vikings win, so is that a wash?)

The Packers also gained an important win in the NFC North, rolling to a 27-13 home victory over the reigning division champion Detroit Lions after going 1-5 within the division last season.

Green Bay acquired Micah Parsons in a trade with the Dallas Cowboys just over a week before its first game, and nobody really knew what to expect from the two-time All-Pro joining a new team so late – or if he’d see the field at all after dealing with a back injury during training camp.

Sure, our supercomputer bumped Green Bay’s defense up to 11th from 23rd in our preseason rankings and the pass rush all the way to ninth from 25th after the trade was announced. But how much of an impact would Parsons actually have in the opener?

Turns out, quite a bit.

Parsons registered one of Green Bay’s four sacks and helped keep a Lions offense that averaged a league-best 33.2 points in 2024 from reaching the end zone until the final minute when the game was already decided.

He was credited with one QB hit and 3.5 hurries and impacted the gameplay even when he didn’t take down Jared Goff.

Late in the second quarter with the Lions threatening to score on the Green Bay 16-yard line, Parsons nearly sacked Goff, but the pressure was enough to rattle the Detroit QB and his pass intended for Amon-Ra St. Brown was intercepted by Evan Williams.

In all, Parsons was on the field for 29 snaps, and Detroit averaged a measly 2.45 yards on those plays.

The Lions ran 22 passing plays when Parsons was on the field, and Goff had a 57.1 QB rating on those plays, averaging just 4.79 yards per attempt while being sacked three times.

When Parsons wasn’t on the field, Detroit called 21 pass plays, and on those play calls, Goff completed 18 of his 20 pass attempts for 134 yards and a 111.3 QB rating while being sacked once.

Overall, Green Bay’s defense posted the second-highest pressure rate of any team in Week 1 at 58.1%, with only Philadelphia recording a higher mark at 62.9%.

While Parsons amplified the pass rush – which really shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, seeing as he’s one of the league’s premier pass rushers – his presence also helped Green Bay bottle up one of the NFL’s best ground attacks. David Montgomery was held to a mere 25 yards on 11 carries and Jahmyr Gibbs had an even worse showing with 19 rushing yards on nine attempts.

Parsons and Green Bay’s next test comes against a Washington team that was fourth in offensive efficiency last season, generating successful plays 44.3% of the time and ranking 10th in offensive yards per play at 5.71, and the Commanders opened the 2025 season in encouraging fashion.

In Sunday’s 21-6 win over the New York Giants, the Commanders racked up 432 total yards of offense, averaging 6.65 yards on their 65 offensive plays to churn out a success rate of 47.7%.

Washington wore down New York with a ground game that produced 220 yards, with rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt rushing for 82 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts, fellow new Commander Deebo Samuel scoring on a 19-yard end-around, and Jayden Daniels gaining 68 yards on 11 carries.

Though Daniels completed 19 of 30 passes for 233 yards with a touchdown for a 98.3 quarterback rating, there were some hiccups, as he was sacked three times and knocked down on four more occasions.

Daniels took his fair share of hits last season – his 47 times sacked were sixth-most in the NFL – and now he’ll be trying to evade one of the players who flustered him the most as a rookie.

In the Commanders’ two games against the Cowboys last season, Parsons registered six QB hits on Daniels, 5.5 QB knockdowns and 4.5 sacks. No other player sacked Daniels more than twice in 2024.

He may now be wearing a different color jersey, but Parsons will look to again wreak havoc on Daniels. Given how things transpired in Week 1 for the Packers, that looks entirely possible.

Can Washington Neutralize Green Bay’s Play Action?

While Parsons and Green Bay’s defense garnered much of the attention on Sunday, Jordan Love and the offense were also effective.

Love completed passes to 10 different receivers, finishing 16 of 22 for 188 yards with two touchdowns for a 128.6 rating in leading the Packers to five scoring drives (three TDs and two field goals) on eight possessions before running out the clock. They didn’t turn the ball over and the offense didn’t commit a penalty.

Overall, a productive showing for a team in its opener, especially seeing as it showed some different looks under offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich.

In the opener, the Packers went with a 122 personnel more than any other formation, lining up with a single running back, two tight ends and two receivers 22 times – on 46.8% of their offensive snaps. Their next most-shown set was a 113 formation, which they ran 36.2% of the time. Their 17 snaps with one running back, one tight end and three receivers were the fewest by any team in Week 1.

Last season, they only ran out of 122 personnel 23.6% of the time, utilizing a 113 formation on 71.5% of their offensive snaps.

With the 122 set on Sunday, Love completed 7 of 8 passes and was far more efficient than the 11 times he threw when Green Bay lined up with a 113 personnel.

Love was regularly looking downfield with the 122 formation, averaging 9.88 air yards on those throws, but he aired it out even more when the Packers ran play action.

On Green Bay’s second offensive play of the season, Love faked a handoff to Josh Jacobs and completed a 20-yard pass to Romeo Doubs. The drive ended with Love finding tight end Tucker Kraft in the end zone for a 15-yard touchdown.

On the Packers’ first play of the second quarter from their own 35-yard line, Love faked it to Jacobs and heaved a deep ball to Doubs for a 48-yard gain. On the very next play out of the shotgun, Love hit Jayden Reed for a 17-yard touchdown to put the Packers up 17-3.

Love ended up completing all four of his play-action passes for 84 yards, with most of that yardage coming through the air, as he averaged 17.0 air yards on those throws.

Washington’s secondary didn’t have to defend against many deep balls last weekend, as Russell Wilson only averaged 6.29 air yards on his 37 passes. Cornerbacks Marshon Lattimore and Trey Amos should expect more action in covering Doubs and Reed, and especially expect more deep routes when Love feigns the handoff.

On 83 occasions defending a play-action pass last season, Washington allowed 6.3 yards per pass – the fewest by any team on such play calls.

If the Commanders can avoid being burned deep on play action and keep Love and company in check – as well as protect Daniels from Parsons and the pass rush – they could end up leaving Lambeau with a 2-0 start and gain a leg up in the NFC race.

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Packers (61.6%)

As far as the Commanders vs. Packers odds in this matchup, the majority of NFL betting sites have Green Bay (-3.5) favored on the not-yet frozen tundra.

But what about the supercomputer’s NFL picks? It gives a pretty healthy advantage to the Packers, with a 61.6% probability of opening the season 2-0 for the first time since a 4-0 start in 2020.

Beginning with the Brett Favre era, Green Bay has won six in a row at home over the Washington franchise.

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