Can the Mets Overcome Abbott and the Reds, or Is Defeat Inevitable?

Ever had one of those days where the betting gods just decide you’re their favorite punching bag? Yeah, that was me yesterday—Cowboys flirting with 20 points when I bet under 19.5, Jalen Hurts scoring the second touchdown when I called the first, and let’s not even start on those Dodgers’ late “meaningless” runs. So now, as the Mets gear up to face the Reds at 6:40 ET, I’m hoping to shake off the bad juju. But here’s the kicker: are the Mets really the real deal, or just a fugazi—a team that looks good on paper but has lost its mojo? Meanwhile, the Reds are scrapping to keep their playoff hopes alive, riding on Andrew Abbott’s arms amid a brutal slump. This series isn’t just a game; it’s a survival battle for both squads. Can the Mets hold their ground, or will the Reds storm back? Stick around—this one’s going to be a doozy. LEARN MORE.

Mets vs. Reds, 6:40 ET

Brutal day of betting for me yesterday as I feel like the luck on all of the bets I placed went completely against me. Sometimes it is just one of those days. I put a play on the Cowboys to score under 19.5 points. They ended with 20. I had a bet on Jalen Hurts to score the first touchdown of the season, and he scored the second. Both of those could be as the result of the same idiotic move from Jalen Carter when he spit on Dak Prescott. On the diamond, the Pirates and Dodgers ended up scoring eight runs. The Dodgers scored three meaningless runs in the ninth inning. I’m going to try and dodge the bad luck today as the Mets take on the Reds. 

The Mets might be a fugazi. For all you non-Donnie Brasco watchers out there, that means they might be fake. The team is 10 games above .500 and would make the playoffs if the season ended today. They have had a tough second half, but have rebounded a bit going under three games under since the All-Star Break. The problem I have is that the Mets haven’t been anything better than .500 for about three months now. About the same time last year, they flipped a switch and went crazy. They rode that success all the way to the National League Championship Series and even in the first portion of the season. It seems like that switch has been turned off. They still will need to fight their way into the playoffs, but they have a decent enough lead. David Peterson is 8-5 for the season with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. He has been slightly better on the road than at home, but it isn’t really anything significant. He had a brutal August, allowing 23 earned runs in 31 innings, with three starts of at least four earned runs allowed. He did have one of his best starts of the season against the Reds with a four hits and one unearned run allowed in six innings. 

I didn’t really mention this, but this is the biggest series of the season for Cincinnati. As of today, the Mets are five games ahead of the Reds for the final spot in the Wild Card race. Surprisingly enough, the Giants are ahead of the Reds, and the Diamondbacks and Cardinals are both slightly behind at just 5.5 games back. So, again, this is a big series for the Reds if they have any real hope at making the playoffs. The problem is that they are struggling at the moment. The team has lost 10 of their past 13 games. They faced tough competition in that stretch, and it doesn’t get much easier with the Mets, then Padres, Athletics, and Cardinals all coming up. The good news for them is that they get Andrew Abbott taking the hill. Abbott is 8-5 with a 2.65 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. He has been dominant much of the season, but has only made 24 starts. He has been better at home this year as well with a 2.11 ERA. Even last month is a microcosm of his season. He allowed 10 earned runs in two road starts, but just five earned runs in three home outings. Abbott allowed two earned runs in six innings on six hits against the Mets when he faced them in July.

The Reds have to win this series, and the Mets probably do too. Winning one game is not going to cut it for either, and being swept probably would be devastating to each team. I think the best play here is to take the Mets team total under. With Abbott on the mound, he should be able to keep them under control for much of the game. I do think the Reds win, but I think the Mets team total is the better look.

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