Chargers vs. Chiefs in Brazil: The Surprising Underdog Bet That Could Pay Off Big in NFL Week 1

Here we go again — the NFL takes its show international for a second straight season, landing smack dab in the Corinthians Arena down in São Paulo, Brazil. Remember last year when the Eagles edged out the Packers 34-29? Well, this time around, it’s the Kansas City Chiefs facing off against the Los Angeles Chargers on the Friday after the kickoff game. Something about playing football under foreign skies really makes you wonder: does the jet lag affect Mahomes’ laser arm or Herbert’s pocket poise more? Both squads stumbled out the gate last season—the Chiefs failing at a historic threepeat and the Chargers getting steamrolled in the wild card round. Yet, if you ask me, this isn’t just another preseason scrimmage on foreign soil. The Herbert-Harbaugh duo? I’m buying what they’re selling as one of the NFL’s elite QB-coach combos, rivaling the likes of Reid-Mahomes. And despite what the media loves to harp on, the Chargers’ roster’s quietly gathering some serious steam with savvy vets like Keenan Allen returning and rookie Omarion Hampton ready to make waves. Intrigued by a game where the spread might just be mispriced, and underdogs could bite back harder than expected? Yeah, me too. Buckle up—the battle in Brazil could be more than just a neutral-site novelty; it may just rewrite early-season expectations. LEARN MORE.

For a second straight season, there’s a game at the Corinthians Arena in São Paulo, Brazil, on the Friday after the NFL Kickoff Game. Last year, the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Green Bay Packers 34-29. This year, it’s the Kansas City Chiefs squaring off with the Los Angeles Chargers. 

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Both teams ended last season with a stinker. Albeit KC was going for a Super Bowl threepeat and lost to Philly 40-22, while LAC got their doors blown off by the Houston Texans 32-12 in a 2025 AFC Wild Card Game. It was Chargers QB Justin Herbert‘s second brutal playoff loss, and his first under head coach Jim Harbaugh. 

But I’m buying a little more stock in the Herbert-Harbaugh team because they are a top-five quarterback-coach combo in the NFL. I’d put them behind Patrick Mahomes and Chiefs head coach Andy Reid, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and head coach John Harbaugh, Rams QB Matt Stafford and head coach Sean McVay. 

The NFL media trashes LAC’s roster, but if you squint, it’s not that bad. In fact, the Chargers are as good on paper, if not better, than the Chiefs. LAC brought back cagey vet WR Keenan Allen this season, second-year WR Ladd McConkey was nasty as a rookie, and I trust that Harbaugh drafting rookie RB Omarion Hampton in the first round will pay off. 

The Allen signing didn’t make headlines since he signed late in the offseason (Aug. 5) after a down year with the Chicago Bears last season. However, I’m excusing that because it was a terrible situation for everyone, and the Bears overhauled their coaching staff. As long as he’s healthy, Allen will get open a lot for Herbert, which will open up the offense. 

Ultimately, this spread is mispriced. The Chiefs were -4.5 favorites over the Chargers in Kansas City in Week 14 last year. I give KC a 2.5-point boost for home-field advantage, and they are playing on a neutral field in Brazil Friday. Lastly, LAC improved on paper more this offseason, so I make the Chiefs only -2 here, and the “Chargers +3” is obviously a key number. 

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