Circa Million VII Survivor Picks: Which Underdog NFL Teams Could Shock the Leaders in Week 1?

Every year, like clockwork, I find myself amidst the neon buzz of Las Vegas, not just soaking in the spectacle of the NFL Kickoff Game but diving headfirst into the tantalizing chaos of the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest. Seven seasons deep now—still no big win to show for it, yet the thrill of nearly hitting the jackpot keeps me glued to the grind. But here’s a question that’s been rattling in my brain: why do we keep chasing that elusive touchdown in a world where the odds—and the NFL’s unpredictability—couldn’t be more ruthless? This year, I’m doubling down, partnering with David Troy to take on the Circa Survivor, a beast of a contest where every wrong pick could mean game over. From smart spreads against the Bengals’ shaky starts to betting against big favorites, my Week 1 selections are laid bare with a hard-nosed confidence tempered by a dash of that gambler’s humility. Ready to see where the smart money’s going and maybe snag a little Vegas magic yourself? Let’s roll the dice and break down the picks that might just start a winning streak. LEARN MORE.

As per tradition, I was in Las Vegas Thursday for the 2025 NFL Kickoff Game and to enter the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest. This is my seventh consecutive season doing either Westgate’s “SuperContest” or the Circa Million. Even though I’ve never cashed in one of these, I’ve gotten close enough to keep coming back. 

Pack your bags, football fans! OutKick is sending one lucky winner and a friend to Athens for Georgia vs. Alabama. Travel’s on us, VIP tickets in hand, and bragging rights for life. Enter Now!

If you’re already familiar with my work, then you know the deal. For those who don’t, you pick five teams against the spread (ATS) each week in the NFL regular season. The Circa Million entry with the best winning rate at the end of the season wins at least $1 million. It pays down 100 places, and has quarterly contests and a last-place booby prize. 

However, this is my first year doing the Circa Survivor. I partnered up with fellow OutKick sports betting analyst, David Troy, for it because of the massive payout. You can only use a team once, and the Circa Survivor has up to 20 legs: 18 weeks in the regular season, with Thanksgiving and Black Friday being their own week, and Christmas its own week. 

Now that I got all the boring stuff out of the way, let’s discuss how I’m starting my march to millions with my NFL Week 1 Circa Million and Survivor picks. 

Listed by order of confidence. First is the most confident, and fifth is the least.

Should a non-playoff team be -5 road favorites in a division game? Especially in the AFC North? I say, “No”. The Bengals tend to start slowly since drafting Joe Burrow in 2020. They are 3-7-1 ATS and 5-6 straight up (SU) as favorites in September over that span. And home underdogs in division games in Week 1 are 23-7 ATS since 2010. 

Furthermore, Cincy fired former defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo this offseason, and head coach Zac Taylor is an offensive coach. Since 2015, teams that are -4 favorites or higher in Week 1 with offensive coaches and a new defensive coordinator are 0-4 ATS with a -10 spread differential, according to Pregame.com’s MacKenzie Rivers.

I’m excusing the Browns’ terrible season in 2024-25 because they were 27th in Adjusted Games Lost to injury, per FTN Fantasy. So, Cleveland almost has to be better this year, at least in Week 1 when it’s at full strength. Lastly, the Browns should win at the point of attack. They had a better pass-rush, run-stop, pass-blocking, and pass-rushing win rates than the Bengals last season, per ESPN. 

(LISTEN to Bengals-Browns analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

Low-key, Denver head coach Sean Payton’s teams start slowly, too: They are 14-20 SU and 11-22-1 ATS in Weeks 1-2. This includes the Drew Brees-led New Orleans Saints, who won several division titles and a Super Bowl. Denver is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in Weeks 1-2 since acquiring Payton. 

The Titans improved the weakest parts of their team this offseason: Quarterback, offensive line, and special teams. They took QB Cam Ward No. 1 in the 2025 NFL Draft. Despite being a rookie, Ward almost has to be an upgrade over QB Will Levis, who looked like he was throwing games last year. Either way, Ward is a stud who will earn a big contract extension. 

Tennessee signed LT Dan Moore Jr. and LG Kevin Zeitler this offseason. Moore is about a league-average tackle, but that’s still an upgrade. Zeitler was the third-highest graded guard in football last season, per Pro Football Focus. Because they were awful on special teams last year, the Titans hired coach John Fassel this offseason, who consistently produces top-10 special teams units. 

Seattle will have a top-five defense in the league this season, and San Francisco’s wide receiver group is below average until Brandon Aiyuk returns later this year. The Niners traded former WR Deebo Samuel in March, and WR Jauan Jennings missed practice this offseason because of a contract dispute and calf injury. Otherwise, the 49ers have WRs Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Ricky Pearsall as wideouts.

They are being priced in this game according to their preseason power ranking, but the 49ers still need to gel. San Francisco RB Christian McCaffrey played only four games last season, and LT Trent Williams played just 10 games. The Niners hired back defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, but the defense lacks depth and was bad last year. 

The 49ers could have trouble exploiting Seattle’s weak offensive line, and Seahawks QB Sam Darnold can make plays if he has time to throw. The Niners have two rookies starting on their defensive line, and DT Jordan Elliott has graded below a replacement-level player in all five seasons in the NFL. San Francisco’s front seven is Nick Bosa, LB Fred Warner, and a bunch of unproven players. 

(LISTEN to 49ers-Seahawks analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

Since Baltimore is my pick to win Super Bowl LX, I’d bet the Ravens at a pick ‘em, which this pretty much is, against any NFL team. Also, this is a Revenge Game for Baltimore after losing to Buffalo 27-25 in the 2025 AFC divisional round. The Ravens dominated the box score that day and slaughtered the Bills 35-10 in Week 4 last year. 

Baltimore out-gained Buffalo in yards per play, 7.3-4.6, and had three more first downs (23-20), but the Ravens lost the turnover battle 3-0. Nonetheless, turnovers are random, and Baltimore is the better team. As long as they don’t turn the ball over or the reigning NFL MVP, Josh Allen, doesn’t go nuclear, the Ravens should roll Sunday.

First-year Liam Coen lit up Carolina as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator last season. Granted, this is a different team altogether. But, Bucs QB Baker Mayfield isn’t that much better than Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence, and Jacksonville WRs Brian Thomas Jr. and No. 2 pick in this year’s draft, Travis Hunter, could be a top-10 receiving tandem in the NFL. 

The Panthers were the worst defense in the league last season by a wide margin. If Coen turns the Jaguars into a league-average offense this season, they should be able to score 30+ points Sunday. Also, Carolina’s offense is missing No. 2 WR Jalen Coker this week, and LT Ikem Ekwonu is doubtful to play. 

Jacksonville is the last team to make my Week 1 Circa Million card because it could be a popular pick, and the Jaguars are -3.5 in the contest when they’ve been -3 for most of this offseason. That said, I’m hoping “Jacksonville -3.5” keeps people away, or I’m just wrong and people talk themselves into taking Carolina this week.

(LISTEN to Panthers-Jaguars analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

It might look weird that we are using the Jaguars, my least confident Circa Million selection, but David and I are already using “game theory” for Week 1. The biggest favorites will probably be the most popular survivor picks. Yet, heavy favorites losing consistently in the NFL is what makes survival so difficult. 

Hence, the plan is to avoid big favorites as much as possible in hopes of them choking. Not only will it be less popular than some of the bigger favorites, but this is a great week to use Jacksonville because Carolina is one of the lowest power-rated NFL teams entering this season. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.