2025–26 NFL MVP Race Heats Up: Can Underdogs Like Baker Mayfield Shock the Field?

So here we are again, at the crossroads of NFL MVP chatter—where the sparkling trophy unofficially belongs to quarterbacks, and everyone else might as well be tossing their bets into the stadium fireworks. Seriously, 12 straight MVPs and 17 out of the last 18 honor the QB who carries the team on his back. Now, I ask you, can a running back like Derrick Henry or Saquon Barkley really bust this streak with odds at a whopping +6000? The oddsmakers sure seem to think otherwise, gripping tightly to the top tier led by Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, co-favorites locked in a statistical and narrative tug-of-war. But, hey, the MVP race isn’t just a numbers game—it’s about team success, durability, and those intangible moments that only a handful can deliver. So, if you’re looking for the sneaky best bets or just crave that edge in the 2025-26 NFL MVP saga, buckle up—it’s going to be quite the ride. LEARN MORE.

Unofficially, the NFL MVP has become a quarterback award. Sure, you can bet on another position winning it. But, you might as well light your money on fire because 12 straight, and 17 of the last 18 NFL MVPs have been quarterbacks. Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry and Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley have the shortest odds of non-quarterbacks to win NFL MVP at +6000. 

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According to the oddsmakers, there is a gap between the top-five betting favorites to win the 2025-26 NFL MVP and the rest of the field. The past two winners, Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen and Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, are the betting co-favorites at DraftKings with +550 odds. 

After them are Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow (+650), Kansas City Chiefs QB and two-time NFL MVP, Patrick Mahomes (+700), with Washington Commanders QB, and 2024-25 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, Jayden Daniels (+750), rounding out the top-five. The next closest guy on the odds board is Philadelphia Eagles QB, and Super Bowl 59 MVP, Jalen Hurts, at +1700. 

With that kind of separation at the top of the board, the MVP market becomes less about betting the best player and more about finding value within the elite tier. Also, the MVP isn’t just about stats; there is a team-success component to winning the award as well. That said, here are my favorite betting picks for the 2025–26 NFL MVP race.

Allen winning the MVP last season was a “makeup call” for Lamar getting it two years ago. Jackson had more total touchdowns (45-40), fewer interceptions (6-4), and a much better QB Rating (119.6-101.4), but he was 12-5 last season, whereas Allen was 13-3. In 2023-24, Allen had better stats, but the Ravens won more games than the Bills. 

Based on his player profile, durability, and Buffalo being the odds-on favorite to win another AFC East title, Allen should be the betting favorite to win the 2025-26 NFL MVP. Last year was his fifth consecutive 40+ touchdown season. Allen could very well lead the league in passing and rushing touchdowns this year. 

Furthermore, they are both from the 2018 NFL Draft class, but Allen has 61 more total touchdowns than Jackson (195-166 passing and 65-33 rushing) in their careers. Lastly, “availability is the best ability,” and Allen has never missed a game because of an injury, while Lamar has. 

Last season was Mayfield’s best in the NFL. He had career-bests in completion rate (71.4%), yards (4,500), touchdowns (41), and QB Rating (106.8). Per Pro Football Focus, Mayfield was the sixth-best quarterback in the league, and he ranked sixth in EPA plus completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), which is layman’s terms for “scoring points and throwing guys open”. 

Meanwhile, Tampa’s offense returns most of its starters from last year’s team, including stud WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and a 1,000-yard running back in Bucky Irving. The Buccaneers drafted Ohio State standout WR Emeka Egbuka in April, solidifying their top-five WR corp. With these playmakers, Baker could have a better season in 2025-26. 

Believe it or not, Goff led the NFL in EPA plus CPOE last season. He also set career-highs in several categories, such as touchdowns (37), QB Rating (111.8), completion rate (72.4%), and QBR (68.4). Aside from the departure of former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson this offseason, Detroit’s offense has similar continuity and talent as Tampa Bay’s. 

For instance, Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown was PFF’s fifth-highest graded player at his position last season, RB Jahmyr Gibbs was sixth, and TE Sam LaPorta was 10th. On top of that, Detroit still boasts a top-10 offensive line despite former C Frank Ragnow retiring this offseason. If Detroit’s offense doesn’t take a step back, Goff’s MVP case gets a boost. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.