2025 MLB Playoffs: Shocking Surprises and Dark Horse Teams Emerging by Memorial Day
They say you can’t really call the shots on a baseball season until the calendar flips past Memorial Day — and well, here we are, staring down the first true checkpoint of the 2025 MLB race. So, what have we learned? Has the mighty Milwaukee Brewers’ reign in the NL Central finally slipped away? Are the Rockies digging a hole deeper than the notorious 2024 White Sox? And dare we ask—are the Detroit Tigers ready to roar for real this year, or is this just another mirage? Meanwhile, the Orioles are stumbling in ways we haven’t seen in ages. These questions—and plenty more—are exactly what our TRACR-powered projections are here to unpack. This isn’t just another glance in the rearview. Our model crunches each team’s TRACR scores, their wins, losses, and graveyard shifts of their schedule, predicting run differentials per 27 outs to map out who’s cruising to October and who’s packing their bags early. Ready for some hot takes and tense surprises? Let’s dive into the wild ride that the rest of the season holds. LEARN MORE
Will the Milwaukee Brewers (27-28) finish in fourth place? Can’t be, right?
Will the Colorado Rockies (9-45) break the 2024 Chicago White Sox’s record for most losses in a season? It’s going to be close, according to our projections. But they’re also on pace (by far) to become the worst team in the modern era, per TRACR.
And what kind of proclamations can we make at the first marker of the 2025 MLB season? That the Beer Makers are no longer the kings of the NL Central? Or the Colorado Rockies are actually worse that the historically bad 2024 Chicago White Sox?
The Tigers are well-rounded with an lineup that ranks second in O-TRACR and a pitching staff that ranks fifth in raw value. Our model is convinced, giving them the third-highest probability (20.0%) of reaching the World Series behind the Yankees (39.1%) and Cubs (27.3%).
Though the Houston Astros (28-25) entered Tuesday’s action 1.5 games behind the Seattle Mariners (29-23), the Astros rank first in the division in O-TRACR, second in D-TRACR and easily first overall (0.73 to Seattle’s 0.17).
By the unwritten rules of the baseball calendar, we can say all of it. But we’ll also explain further as we go through how our projection model sees the division races playing out the rest of the way.
The Chicago White Sox (17-37) aren’t good, but they aren’t nearly as bad as they were last season. They have the sixth-highest differential between preseason TRACR and current TRACR (+0.90), and are projected to have a plus-22 win increase over 2024.
NL Central
Remember all the spring training talk about how the Los Angeles Dodgers (33-21) were so good they were bad for baseball? And they were definitely a lock to set the all-time record for wins in a season, right?
The Chicago Cubs (33-21), who have gone from 14th in TRACR to second, and the surprising St. Louis Cardinals (30-24), who have soared from 20th to fourth.
The post 2025 MLB Playoff Predictions: Where Teams Project to Finish at the Memorial Day Marker appeared first on Opta Analyst.
Our projection model incorporates each team’s TRACR, win-loss record and strength of schedule to calculate an expected run differential per 27 outs, which is used to simulate the remaining schedule and produce our predictions.
It certainly hasn’t helped Milwaukee that the two teams to make the largest leaps so far compared to our preseason projections are also in the NL Central.
Can we finally say that the Detroit Tigers are for real? Or that the Baltimore Orioles are experiencing a fall from grace like we haven’t seen in quite some time?
The Cleveland Guardians (29-24) are always in the hunt, though they’ve been uncharacteristically sloppy. They’ve made the sixth-most errors (33) in MLB and own the fifth-worst fielding percentage (.982). They’ve also had three games with three or more errors, tied with the Red Sox for second-most in the majors, behind the woeful Rockies (five).
NL East
As they say, this is why they play the games.
As a result of their six-game winning streak, the Tampa Bay Rays (27-26) have surged from 19th in our TRACR rankings to ninth. However, the Toronto Blue Jays (26-27), Boston Red Sox (27-29) and Orioles are all projected to finish with fewer than 80 wins, leaving the former powerhouse division with just two teams expected to end up above .500.
Juan Soto: Highest Batting Avg. in First 53 Player Games
- .315 – 2024 w/NYY
- .311 – 2018 w/WAS
- .289 – 2019 w/WAS
- .267 – 2021 w/WAS
- .261 – 2023 w/SD
- .233 – 2025 w/NYM
- .228 – 2022 w/WAS
He’s still just two hits away from becoming the second-youngest player (22 years, 38 days) in franchise history to reach 200 in his career (Roberto Alomar – 21 years, 113 days).
Then they lost ace Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery, and still have made the fourth-largest jump in TRACR since the preseason projections.
How does our model project what is perhaps the most jumbled division in baseball? With a familiar team at the top.
The superstar offseason addition has the second-lowest batting average of his career through 53 games of a season.
It may have been fair to ask whether a 31-13 finish in 2024 was a fluke. But now the Detroit Tigers (35-20) have gone an MLB-best 66-33 since Aug. 11 of last year.
Will your team be playing in October? We’re revisiting our TRACR-powered projection model to see what its MLB playoff predictions look like after passing Memorial Day.
NL West
The Cincinnati Reds (27-28) have blown two games after leading by at least five runs – tied for most in MLB with the Atlanta Braves. They have the fifth-worst bullpen raw value in the National League. The Pittsburgh Pirates (19-36) have played it close, but they’ve only won 10 of their 22 one-run games – also tied with Atlanta for the most in MLB.
The San Diego Padres (30-22) have won two in a row after a dismal 5-11 stretch. Jackson Merrill hit 28 for 60 (.467) with four homers, four doubles and 17 RBIs in his first 15 games this season, but he’s since batted 8 for 48 (.167) with no homers, one double and one RBI in his last 12.
Our model has the Atlanta Braves (25-27) with about 81 projected wins behind the surging Phillies and Mets, but it’s fair to speculate that it could rise with 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. back and already making an impact, and ace Spencer Strider working his way back into form.
The reality is that the Dodgers are not on pace to finish with the most wins in baseball history. In fact, they don’t even have the best record in MLB. They’re tied for fourth, and projected to win the NL West with ‘only’ 94 victories.
Milwaukee has suffered the fifth-largest drop in projected TRACR prior to the season (12th; 0.50) to TRACR heading into May 27 (22nd; minus-0.29). Again, TRACR uses advanced metrics and other factors to calculate how many runs per nine innings better or worse teams are compared to the league-average club.
Acuna Jr. has two homers, a double and a walk in his three games this season. The last Braves right fielder to do that in his first three games of a season was David Justice in 1995.
After a promising start, the Athletics (23-31) have lost six straight series – tied for the second-longest series losing streak this season (Rockies, active 17 series losing streak). It is tied for the fourth-longest series losing streak by the A’s since 2009.
Lowest Single-Season TRACR (Since 1901)
- -3.07 – 2025 Colorado Rockies
- -2.57 – 1932 Boston Red Sox
- -2.54 – 1924 Boston Braves
- -2.45 – 1915 Philadelphia Athletics
- -2.41 – 1945 Philadelphia Phillies
AL East
It’s somewhat remarkable that the New York Mets (33-21) have gotten off to the kind of start they have without much contribution from Juan Soto.
The Baltimore Orioles (19-34), who were 33-18 heading into May 27 a year ago, have won a season-high three in a row but have likely buried themselves into too big of a hole to dig out. Even after their win streak, the O’s are on pace for the fifth-largest decrease in winning percentage from one season to the next since the divisional era began.
Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team.
So here we are.
Largest Decrease in Win Pct – Since 1969
- 1997-98 Florida Marlins (-.235)
- 1981-82 Cincinnati Reds (-.234)
- 2024-25 Colorado Rockies (-.210)
- 2003-04 Arizona Diamondbacks (-.204)
- 2024-25 Baltimore Orioles (-.204)
AL Central
Trea Turner has played a key role in the Phillies’ surge, totaling six extra-base hits, eight RBIs and four stolen bases over his last seven games. He became the first Phillies player to reach those marks in a seven-game span since Jimmy Rollins in September 2007.
The Philadelphia Phillies (34-19) have gone a major league-best 21-6 since April 26, but our model still likes the Mets to hold them off in the East.
Bobby Witt Jr. and solid pitching and defense (second in D-TRACR) will likely keep the Kansas City Royals (29-26) around. Witt Jr. is the only player in MLB to lead his team in runs, hits, doubles, triples and stolen bases.
The Central could have a huge say in the AL wild-card race again, with three teams projected to win between 82-86 games. (The Rays are projected to be the first wild-card team at 86.5 victories.)
There’s an old adage that you can’t make any big-picture determinations about a Major League Baseball season until the calendar hits Memorial Day.
The Minnesota Twins (29-24) have rolled back into the race with a 16-6 record so far in May. The last time they won at least 75.0% of their games in a single calendar month (min. 10 games) was April 2002, when they went 18-6.
The Texas Rangers (26-29) have the best D-TRACR in the AL West and rank fifth in all of baseball in starting pitching raw value. Jacob deGrom has a 2.42 ERA in 20 career starts with Texas, the third-lowest ERA through 20 starts with the franchise behind only Mike Paul’s 2.24 by Mike Paul (all 20 starts in 1972) and Dick Donovan’s 2.37 (all 20 starts in 1961).
AL West
But after losing Corbin Burnes, Willy Adames, Devin Williams and Brandon Woodruff over the past couple of seasons, the Brew Crew appears to have finally taken a step back.
James Wood has been a bright spot for the Washington Nationals (24-29) and Kyle Stowers has been one for the Miami Marlins (21-31). Wood is one of four players in the NL with at least 30 runs scored, 30 RBIs, 30 walks and 25 extra-base hits, joining Pete Alonso, Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Tucker.
The Los Angeles Angels (25-28) worked their way back into the conversation in the West with eight straight wins, but they’ve since dropped three in a row. Los Angeles averaged 7.6 runs per game during its win streak but has managed just three total runs in its three losses.
Stowers is one of three players this season to hit at least .300 with 10 home runs and 30 RBIs (Aaron Judge, Teoscar Hernandez). The last Marlin to do that through the first 50 games of a season was Marcell Ozuna in 2017.
The Cubs have an MLB-high five players with nine home runs or more and rank first in offensive TRACR (O-TRACR). The Cards, who are seventh in MLB in defensive TRACR (run prevention, so pitching and defense), have won 16 of their last 21.
Can the surprising San Francisco Giants (31-23) stay with the rival Dodgers? Our model thinks so, projecting them to finish just 2.4 wins behind LA.
That’s part of the reason why Houston is projected to return to the top of the West (by four games over the Mariners).
The New York Yankees (33-20) sit atop our TRACR rankings, but they’ve been even better than our model expected after losing Juan Soto in the offseason.
Post Comment