2025 MLB Postseason Showdown: Can Cubs and Dodgers Defy the Odds in NLDS Game 1?

Once a golden goose, MLB betting handed me a steady stream of wins from 2018 through 2022 — but lately, it’s been more drought than deluge. The grind of the regular season combined with the relentless shuffle of platoon pitching and bullpen days has made finding an edge feel like chasing shadows. Still, dialing things back a notch helped me scrape out a winning record last season. I’m starting 2025 modestly, splitting my early bets between a tough breakeven and a neat win, and now I’m turning my eye to the Division Series. Is Matthew Boyd’s “career year” really enough to hold off Freddy Peralta and a rested Brewers bullpen? Can Shohei Ohtani keep defying odds as an underdog, even when I’m rooting for the Yankees? Baseball’s drama never slips, and neither does the challenge of trying to beat the books. Ready for the first pitch? LEARN MORE.

MLB betting used to be a cash cow for me from 2018-22, but over the last three seasons, the well has run dry. The bottom line is the regular season is too much of a grind, and it’s too difficult to find an edge in the platoon pitching era, where starters get pulled early, and almost every team has a “bullpen day”.

That said, my scaled-down approach helped me to a winning regular season. I’ve split my first two 2025 MLB bets: San Diego Padres moneyline (-102) in Game 1 of their NL Wild Card Series with the Chicago Cubs ❌ and UNDER 7.5 in Game 2 of the Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees AL Wild Card Series ✅. Here are my looks for the first day of the MLB Division Series.

This feels like a “scheduled loss” for the Cubs. They went a full three games against the San Diego Padres in the 2025 NL Wild Card round. CHC’s bullpen is taxed, Milwaukee’s bullpen is obviously well-rested, and the Cubs’ Game 1 starter, LHP Matthew Boyd, is someone I like to fade.

Boyd is having a career year, making his first MLB All-Star Game in 11 major league seasons. However, Boyd has a career 4.57 ERA and has gotten crushed by the Brewers this season. He’s allowed 9 ER over 10.1 innings pitched in two starts vs. Milwaukee this season. Boyd only has five strikeouts compared to EIGHT walks in those outings.

Meanwhile, the Brewers give ace RHP Freddy Peralta the ball for Game 1. Peralta is one of my favorite pitchers in baseball, and I feel like I have a 90% win rate when I bet on him. He is 4-1 in his last five starts vs. the Cubs with a 2.89 ERA and a 30/12 K/BB rate.

Lastly, Milwaukee is 29-18 against left-handed starters this season. According to FanGraphs, the Brewers are eighth in wRC+ vs. lefties, ninth in wOBA, and lead MLB in batting average.

_____________________________

Phillies LHP Cristopher Sánchez had a great season and all, but I’ll take the Dodgers with Shohei Ohtani on the mound as an underdog vs. any team in baseball, except for my team, the New York Yankees. Not because the Dodgers were a good bet. It’s because I can’t bet against my own team. I’m jealous of people who can.

Anyway, Ohtani’s pitching peripherals are outstanding (K%, BB%, hard-hit rate, stuff like that). His best game of the season was against the Phillies a few weeks ago. Shohei threw five hitless innings, striking out five and walking none in a game LAD’s blew and lost 9-6.

However, believe it or not, the Dodgers’ relief pitching has been better lately. Since September, Philadelphia’s bullpen is 27th in Fielding Independent Pitching (“FIP”) and LAD’s is 13th, per FanGraphs. FIP is more predictive because it removes factors outside the pitcher’s control.

Also, Sánchez gave up 8 ER over 12.2 innings pitched in two starts vs. the Dodgers this year. His command was great: 15 strikeouts to one walk. But LAD had 13 hits and four home runs in those games, and they have a top-three lineup in MLB, along with the Phillies and Yankees.

Ultimately, all I’m doing is getting my word count up for this article. I could’ve stopped after announcing that I’ll take the Dodgers and Shohei as an underdog against anyone. But maybe that makes me a sucker. That’s not exactly “sharp analysis”. We’ll see.

_____________________________

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my MLB 2025 betting record via X all season.