2025 NFL Mock Draft: Shocking First-Round Picks That Could Change the Game Forever

2025 NFL Mock Draft: Shocking First-Round Picks That Could Change the Game Forever

Ever wonder what the 2025 NFL Draft would look like if every team put on their X-ray glasses and drafted based solely on what they should do, instead of what they might do? Well, buckle up, because that’s exactly the ride we’re taking here. After countless hours of relentless video scouting and crunching mountains of data, our mock draft isn’t your usual “who’s going first” spiel. Nope, it’s a deep dive into the chaotic world of NFL possibilities, where even top prospects like Travis Hunter leave us scratching our heads over his ideal position. With fewer blue-chip players than you can count on one hand—and the intriguing notion that later picks might just rival the early ones in actual productivity—this draft defies convention. This is about fixing needs, spotting weaknesses, and eyeballing the best fits, no matter how unconventional. So, if you’ve ever pondered what the draft should look like when filtered through pure logic and hard evidence, you’re in the right place. Ready to see how it all shakes out? LEARN MORE.

Our NFL mock draft was conducted after thorough video scouting and data analysis. It’s important to note this exercise is based on what teams should do, not what they will do.


It seems as though the defining story of the 2025 NFL Draft will be radically different player evaluations per team.

You can count on less than one hand the number of players who are blue-chip prospects and make an argument that picks 33-50 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin, might feature just as many productive NFL players as picks 10-32.

Why? Because judged purely on what happens on the field, almost every player has a career-defining question mark.

Heck, Travis Hunter is the No. 1 player in this class for me, and we’re not even sure which position he’s going to play.

But that just made our 2025 NFL mock draft even more fascinating. We’ve gone through tons of video and even more data to identify team needs, weaknesses and potential best-prospect fits.

Kyle Cunningham-Rhoads and Greg Gifford also took part in our first-round mock draft. The key caveat: Our selections are based around what we think teams should do, not what we think teams will do Thursday night to open the three-day draft.

NFL Mock Draft

Picks 1-3: The first three picks are comprised of the two elite prospects in this class and the top overall quarterback. Cam Ward is that quarterback, and while there’s some question about just how good of a prospect he is, he’s an immediate upgrade for a Tennessee Titans team that threw more interceptions than any other in the NFL last year.

Travis Hunter goes second to the Cleveland Browns, and all he did last year was win the Heisman Trophy, the Bednarik Award (defensive player of the year), and the Biletnikoff Award (most outstanding receiver). That leaves the New York Giants with Abdul Carter (edge from Penn State) as they turn their biggest strength into an even bigger one, creating a pass rush that could be the NFL’s best.

Picks 4-5: Quarterback Drake Maye is the premier asset on the New England Patriots, and they make an investment by drafting Will Campbell fourth overall. Campbell ranked first amongst all offensive linemen in run blocking ELO and second in pass blocking ELO. He’s the safest prospect in the draft, the one who is most likely to have a 12-year career.

In that same vein, the Jaguars take Mason Graham fifth. The Jags, who are fifth (!) in our team rankings after free agency, are amongst the most interesting picks this year, and in Graham, they get someone who is likely to be a good-to-great pro. 

Picks 6-9: Last year, we had six wide receivers in our first-round mock and three in the top six picks. This year, not including Hunter, Tetairoa McMillan is the only wide receiver to be among the top 32 picks. Over the last two years, there have only been nine individual seasons from FBS wide receivers in which a player recorded at least 1,300 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. McMillan is responsible for two of those seasons, hitting those benchmarks in back-to-back years. He goes to the Las Vegas Raiders, with new quarterback Geno Smith in tow.

The next three picks are all trench players. That stretch begins with Armand Membou, a behemoth left tackle out of Missouri. Membou ran the second-fastest 40-yard dash among offensive linemen at the NFL Combine. But he also has the numbers to back up his athletic traits. Only two Power Four conference offensive tackles with at least 213 pass protection reps allowed fewer than Membou’s two total knockdowns. He becomes the first pick in the Aaron Glenn era for the New York Jets.

After Carter, there are maybe five defensive ends with a reasonable argument of being DE2 in the class. For us, it’s Mykel Williams leading that group after he ranked second among all ends in run defense ELO. There is late momentum for Kelvin Banks Jr., and our model wholeheartedly supports the push. He finished first among all offensive linemen in pass blocking ELO, which includes games against Ohio State, Georgia and Michigan. For a New Orleans Saints team that needs, well, good players, taking an offensive lineman who might still be good 10 years from now seems like a solid pick.

Pick 10: This is the only selection we made in the whole exercise in which we truly considered what we thought might happen Thursday night. We wouldn’t take a running back in the top 10, but given that Ben Johnson has already run the offense for a team that selected a running back 12th overall (Jahmyr Gibbs), we felt as though the marriage between Ashton Jeanty and the Chicago Bears would be too overwhelming for the Bears to pass. The Heisman runner-up was first in college football in rushing yards, yards after contact and broken tackles, and singlehandedly carried his Boise State squad to the College Football Playoff.

This would, undeniably, be a fantasy football match made in heaven.

jeanty touchdowns

Picks 11-14: The San Francisco 49ers are desperate for talent on the defensive line beyond Nick Bosa, so Shemar Stewart is the selection. Stewart isn’t just a freak athlete, like Williams, he was really good against the run with an above-average pressure rate. If the 49ers can help him tap into his pass rush potential, this might be a home run selection.

There were very few teams we struggled to figure out more than the Dallas Cowboys. They have the worst running back room in the NFL, but that position doesn’t make sense at 12. Can you name their second-best wide receiver? We already mentioned only one made our first round. We ultimately settled on Penn State’s Tyler Warren, who finished tied for first among Power Four tight ends in burn yards per route.

Tyler Warren

Donovan Jackson was a borderline elite left guard who then moved to left tackle because of injury and anchored an Ohio State offensive line that was outstanding throughout the College Football Playoff. He offers that versatility here for the Miami Dolphins, who just saw Terron Armstead retire. Colston Loveland was the tight end who tied for first with Warren. Related, there were 56 tight ends last season who caught at least 15 passes. The Indianapolis Colts were the only team without one.

Picks 15-16: This brings us to our most underrated player in the draft. The Atlanta Falcons need pass rushers, something they’ve needed for 15 years. And since this exercise is all about who we think they should draft, the pick at 15 is Braydn Swinson, a player we like on film and by the data. He led all of college football in hurries and pressures, resulting in a second straight season in which he recorded a pressure on at least 25% of his pass rush opportunities.

The top two players in our run blocking ELO went in the top 10. Tyler Booker was third. Among guards, he was first in run blocking and third in pass blocking. Booker can pair with Arizona Cardinals left tackle Paris Johnson to create a left side of an offensive line that may be together in the desert for a decade. 

Picks 17-22: It should come as no surprise that when we discussed what the Cincinnati Bengals needed, we listed every single defensive position. For their pick at 17, we settled on cornerback, given that new defensive coordinator Al Golden led a Notre Dame defense last season that played man coverage at an extremely high rate. With that in mind, Will Johnson goes to Cincy.

Of every Power Four linebacker with at least 100 tackles, no one had a better tackle rate than Jihaad Campbell. Of every linebacker period with at least 85 tackles, no one had a better burn rate allowed percentage than Campbell. He is a jack-of-all-trades in the middle of a defense, not entirely dissimilar to what Seattle Seahawks head coach Mike McDonald had in Kyle Hamilton on the Baltimore Ravens. That seems to be a great fit.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers like to play man coverage behind some exotic blitzes, but they don’t have the strongest collection of cornerbacks. Enter a personal favorite, Azareye’h Thomas. There were 230 cornerbacks with 231+ pass coverage reps last season, and Thomas’ 207 burn yards allowed were the second fewest of any player. The Denver Broncos need a running back. Omarion Hampton has the potential to be a great one. His 138.3 rushing yards per game was the fifth-highest total by any player with at least 10 games played over the last five seasons.

There have been two cornerbacks taken in this block of players, and there are about to be two more. No FBS player had more pass coverage reps than Jahdae Berron last season, and of the 90 cornerbacks with the most such reps, Berron finished third in burn percentage allowed and second in big play percentage allowed.

(Click on the Jahdae Barron card to flip to the back)

Trey Amos’ numbers weren’t as good as Berron’s, but his film popped. When he got his hands on receivers at the line of scrimmage, the play was over. Think L’Jarius Sneed. We all know how Jim Harbaugh feels about physicality, making Amos a seamless fit for the Los Angeles Chargers. 

Picks 23-25: The Green Bay Packers like to take front seven players in the first round. They’ve done so three times in the last three years. They take Mike Green, who led the FBS in sacks last year. Would you rather draft a safety who’s awesome at tackling, or awesome in coverage? If it’s the latter, Malaki Starks is for you, as he led all safeties in pass coverage ELO.

For a Minnesota Vikings defense that disguises its looks as much as any team, having a guy on the backend to play center field is crucial. No tackle had better tape than Josh Simmons last year (Will Campbell included). The only reason he isn’t being talked about as a potential top-three pick is because he suffered a season-ending knee injury. But you know who could use a potentially elite left tackle? A Houston Texans team that just traded stalwart Laremy Tunsil. They take a chance on the majorly talented left tackle from Ohio State.

Pick 26 and the Shedeur Sanders conversation: There were seven different times that we considered Sanders as an option, starting at No. 2 with the Browns. We seriously considered him for the Los Angeles Rams, but we ultimately decided that a team with Matthew Stafford should be trying to win the Super Bowl this year. What ultimately swayed us away from Sanders every time was our view that he is not a first-round prospect.  

On the one hand, he’s tough as nails, and he won’t be overwhelmed getting hit by NFL players. On the other hand, we know this because he took more sacks than any other quarterback last season, more than a handful of which were the result of him just holding onto the ball. Without elite athleticism, our ceiling for Sanders is somewhere between the 10th- and 15th-best quarterback. But in that range, you can find a quarterback outside of the first round (think Dak Prescott, Geno Smith and Kirk Cousins, among others). So a Rams team that can win the Super Bowl this year should probably take Josh Conerly Jr. He not only might be able to help them this season but can take over for Rob Havenstein when he eventually hangs up his cleats. 

Picks 27-32: We’re left with just the elite teams and when you’re a team in this position, you’re usually just taking the best player available, or attacking the premier positions. For the Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders, that means addressing the pass rush. Those teams select edge rushers Nic Scourton, Donavan Ezeiruaku and Jalon Walker, respectively.

For the Lions, it’s continued insurance against what happened to them last season when they were ravaged by injury on the defensive line. We first thought about Walker at No. 7 overall, but struggled to find a defensive scheme that fit his talents and judged him to not be overwhelmingly talented enough to build a defense around.

North Dakota State’s Grey Zabel allowed only one sack and committed just two penalties during the Bison’s 2024 FCS championship season and he’ll have no problem playing in Buffalo after spending his time in college in Fargo.

Traditionally, the Kansas City Chiefs have been at their best defensively when they’ve had a run stuffer like Derrick Nnadi next to Chris Jones. They get their version of that in Kenneth Grant, whose tape isn’t overwhelming this season unless you watch the Ohio State-Michigan game.

Finally, the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles pick another defensive lineman in Derrick Harmon, who ranked fifth among all interior DL in pressure rate.


For more coverage, follow along on social media on InstagramBlueskyFacebook and X.

The post 2025 NFL Mock Draft: Who Each Team Should Select in the First Round appeared first on Opta Analyst.

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