2026 NCAA Tournament Shockers: Which Underdog Could Upset the Elite March Madness Favorites?
How Balanced is TRACR Seeding?
When grouping TRACR based on seeds, generally a high seed means a better TRACR overall, with the one exception being the No. 5 seeds having a higher TRACR on average than 4-seeds.
This is due to St. John’s and Vanderbilt ranking higher than any 4-seed in TRACR, making them more likely to advance to the Sweet 16 than even Kansas and Nebraska in their respective regions.
Seed: Avg. TRACR
- No. 1: 42.2
- No. 2: 36.9
- No. 3: 34.3
- No. 4: 29.8
- No. 5: 30.6
- No. 6: 28.8
- No. 7: 26.6
- No. 8: 25.3
- No. 9: 24.0
- No. 10: 20.0
- No. 11: 19.1
- No. 12: 13.4
- No. 13: 5.8
- No. 14: 3.1
- No. 15: -0.6
- No. 16: -4.8
As for first-round upset picks? The only two lower seeds to have higher probabilities are 9-seeds, Iowa (54.9%) over Clemson, and Utah State (50.8%) slightly over Villanova.
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