2026 NCAA Tournament Shockers: Which Underdog Could Upset the Elite March Madness Favorites?
Probability of Making Sweet 16, Final Four
- 1. Duke: 73.3% Sweet 16, 37.7% Final Four
- 2. UConn: 59.2%, 12.7%
- 3. Michigan State: 45.3%, 10.3%
- 4. Kansas: 38.5%, 6.9%
- 5. St. John’s: 50.9%, 11.0%
- 6. Louisville: 34.9%, 7.9%
- 7. UCLA: 27.0%, 4.1%
- 8. Ohio State: 16.0%, 4.4%
- 9. TCU: 10.2%, 1.8%
- 10. UCF: 12.2%, 0.7%
- 11. South Florida: 16.2%, 2.1%
- 12. UNI: 7.1%, 0.4%
- 13. California Baptist: 3.5%, 0.1%
- 14. North Dakota State: 3.7%, 0.1%
- 15. Furman: 1.7%, <0.1%
- 16. Siena: 0.6%, 0.1%
Midwest Region
Michigan, under coach Dusty May, enters the tournament as the Midwest favorite as well as the second-most likely team to win the national title at 14.0%. Yaxel Lendeborg is second in the country in WAR, although the 6-foot-9, 240-pound power forward is nursing a low ankle sprain suffered during the Big Ten Tournament.
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