2026 NCAA Tournament Shockers: Which Underdog Could Upset the Elite March Madness Favorites?
Michigan’s biggest challenger is likely to be Iowa State, which is fourth in TRACR entering the tournament, and was the Opta supercomputer’s No. 2 team at the start of the season. The Cyclones’ duo of Joshua Jefferson and Tamin Lipsey go into the tournament ranked second and sixth, respectively, in DRIP – the only team with two players ranked in the top 14.
Probability of Making Sweet 16, Final Four
- 1. Michigan: 72.7% Sweet 16, 34.6% Final Four
- 2. Iowa State: 66.0%, 21.8%
- 3. Virginia: 50.1%, 10.1%
- 4. Alabama: 53.1%, 11.2%
- 5. Texas Tech: 33.4%, 4.8%
- 6. Tennessee: 36.8%, 6.2%
- 7. Kentucky: 22.0%, 3.8%
- 8. Georgia: 16.6%, 3.5%
- 9. Saint Louis: 10.1%, 1.7%
- 10. Santa Clara: 10.9%, 0.8%
- 11. (First Four) SMU/Miami (OH): 11.0%, 0.9%
- 12. Akron: 8.5%, 0.5%
- 13. Hofstra: 4.9%, 0.1%
- 14. Wright State: 2.1%, <0.1%
- 15. Tennessee State: 1.1%, <0.1%
- 16. (First Four) UMBC/Howard: 0.6%, <0.1%
West Region
Top-seeded seed Arizona enters the tournament as the favorite to advance out of the West and holds the third-highest probability for winning the national title. The Wildcats are one of only four in the field with two players (Brayen Burries and Jaden Bradley) ranked in the top 20 nationally in WAR, a reflection of the balanced roster that has helped power them to the No. 3 TRACR rating.
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