2026 NCAA Tournament Shockers: Which Underdog Could Upset the Elite March Madness Favorites?
Purdue could be Arizona’s biggest challenger in the region, also one of the four teams with two players ranked in the top 20 in WAR. Senior guard Braden Smith is third, underscoring his value as one of the most impactful players in college basketball this season, while Fletcher Loyer isn’t too far behind at 12.
Probability of Making Sweet 16, Final Four
- 1. Arizona: 77.2% Sweet 16, 36.5% Final Four
- 2. Purdue: 63.9%, 17.9%
- 3. Gonzaga: 57.1%, 15.6%
- 4. Arkansas: 50.4%, 9.6%
- 5. Wisconsin: 38.3%, 6.3%
- 6. BYU: 26.7%, 4.3%
- 7. Miami (FL): 21.6%, 3.0%
- 8. Villanova: 10.5%, 1.4%
- 9. Utah State: 12.0%, 1.6%
- 10. Missouri: 13.4%, 1.1%
- 11. (First Four) NC State/Texas: 14.7%, 2.2%
- 12. High Point: 7.2%, 0.3%
- 13. Hawaii: 4.0%, 0.1%
- 14. Kennesaw State: 1.5%, <0.1%
- 15. Queens University: 1.1%, <0.1%
- 16. LIU: 0.4%, <0.1%
South Region
While Florida, Houston and Illinois enter the tournament in a virtual tie in overall TRACR, Florida’s No. 1 seed and easier path makes it the favorite to get out of the region and have a chance for a repeat national title.
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