2026 NFL Divisional Showdowns: Can Underdogs Upset Favorites in Bills-Broncos and Seahawks-49ers?

Saturday’s 2026 NFL Divisional Round doubleheader is shaping up to be a chaotic cocktail of misleading stats, overhyped stories, and folks conveniently forgetting what they actually saw on the field. It’s like everyone’s collectively pressing the rewind button only to ignore the highlight reel that just played out. But here’s the kicker — I’m not here to throw out cute narratives or jump on bandwagons. Nah, I’m laser-focusing on where the matchups and the betting markets just don’t see eye to eye. Four tight picks — two spreads and two player props — that highlight the real edge in these Bills-Broncos and Niners-Seahawks showdowns. So why should anyone believe we’ll see a different script this time around, especially when last year Buffalo absolutely annihilated Denver? Let’s dig beneath the surface: injuries, coaching chops, and those subtle shifts that the average bettor’s glossing over. Trust me, this isn’t your typical “who’s hot, who’s not” spiel — it’s a deep dive into the nuances that could make or break Saturday’s outcomes. Ready to cut through the noise and get the real story? LEARN MORE

Saturday’s 2026 NFL Divisional Round doubleheader has the perfect recipe for bad betting: small sample sizes, loud narratives, and everybody pretending they didn’t watch the same games you did. The goal here isn’t to be cute; it’s to isolate the few spots where the matchup and the market are telling different stories.

For these two games, I’m keeping it tight with four plays: two spreads and two player props. Here are my Bills-Broncos and Niners-Seahawks previews, with the logic behind how I’m attacking Saturday.

Why would this game be any different than last year’s, when Buffalo sh*t-whipped Denver 31-7 in the AFC Wild Card Round? These rosters are fairly similar, and the Bills doubled the Broncos up in first downs, total yards, and time of possession in that game.

Sure, Denver’s record is better, and Buffalo hosted last year’s meeting. But the Broncos had a better “SRS” last season, which blends point differential with strength of schedule. They were 12-6 ATS last season and in the playoffs, and are 7-9-1 ATS this season. Denver QB Bo Nix’s numbers are similar to last year, and he has the same number of game-breakers.

Also, Josh Allen won’t be shook by playing in Denver, so I’m not worried about the Broncos’ home-field advantage. Buffalo has one of the best offensive lines in the league and held Denver’s defense to a 15.6% pressure rate in last year’s AFC game. For context, the Broncos have the NFL’s highest pressure rate at 31.5% this season.

I’m higher on Bills head coach Sean McDermott than the market. Most of my sports betting buddies think McDermott sucks, which is blasphemy. The Bills have gone from a dumpster fire to a perennial Super Bowl contender under McDermott. All has gone from a project quarterback to an MVP and the best player in football.

Granted, McDermott is a defensive guy, and Buffalo’s defense has been bad this season. However, he can cobble together a game plan to get enough stops against Nix and a mediocre Broncos’ offense to give Allen a chance to win this game.

Buffalo lost two wide receivers last week, Tyrell Shavers and Gabe Davis, to torn ACLs. Bills WR Keon Coleman has been a healthy scratch a couple of times this season, which suggests he doesn’t have the team’s full trust. Hence, Cooks could get more targets Saturday.

Furthermore, Cooks has played in a Super Bowl with the Los Angeles Rams and has had a nice career, with six 1,000-yard seasons. He had 101 and 58 receiving yards in his last two games, and Buffalo thought enough of Cooks to rest him in Week 18.

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Seattle’s 13-3 win in San Francisco in Week 18 was more lopsided than the final score indicates. According to Pro Football Focus data analyst Timo Riske, the Seahawks won the “noise-canceled score” 23-6. They had five more drives in scoring range, two more red-zone trips, and 14 more first downs.

The Niners are a public ‘dog, and one of the heaviest bet teams in the NFL Divisional Round. Part of it is “out of sight, out of mind” when it comes to Seattle. Plus, after upsetting the Eagles as +6 underdogs in the NFC wild-card round, people are thinking “49ers +7/+7.5” against a team they are familiar with and just played two weeks ago.

Yet, Seattle is at least 3.0 points better than Philadelphia. In fact, per Nfelo, the Seahawks are 5.4 points better than the Eagles. Seattle leads the NFL in yards-per-play differential and was the favorite to win the Super Bowl entering the playoffs. Additionally, Philly’s loss last week was largely due to its poor offensive scheme, which has been an issue throughout the season.

Meanwhile, San Francisco thrived on big plays vs. Philadelphia and didn’t have great down-to-down efficiency. The Niners had four plays of 27+ yards, including a wide receiver reverse touchdown pass from WR Jauan Jennings to RB Christian McCaffrey for 29 yards. But the Seahawks have the best defense in the NFC and are tougher to hit explosive plays on.

San Francisco had 173 total yards vs. Seattle in Week 18, and I don’t have faith the Niners’ offense will have more success this week. They lost All-Pro TE George Kittle to a torn Achilles last week, WR Ricky Pearsall didn’t play against the Eagles and is questionable for this game. Basically, I’m Shanahan’s offensive genius cannot overcome their injuries vs. the most complete team in the NFL.

Fourteen receiving yards is a lot for a fullback who’s only played 45.4% of the offensive snaps this season. Juszczyk has cleared this game in just five of his 18 regular-season and playoff games this season, including 49 receiving yards last week.

He had one catch for five yards vs. Seattle in Week 1 and two catches for 32 yards two weeks ago. Typically, the defending fullbacks in the pass game aren’t a priority. But Juszczyk is a 10-time Pro Bowler, who is a known receiving threat, and again, the 49ers could be without a couple of pass-catchers.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.