The Quarterbacks Fighting for Their NFL Futures in 2025: Who Will Survive the Hot Seat?

Russell Wilson, Giants: If he’s the Week 1 starter (if Jaxson Dart lives up to his first-round draft stock, Wilson shouldn’t be), the clock will be ticking. Immediately. In 2004, the Giants benched Kurt Warner after nine games for Eli Manning, even though the Giants were 5-4 at the time. When Dart is ready, Dart will play. Even if Wilson makes it through 2025 without getting benched, he’ll have to do plenty to keep Dart on the sideline for 2026.

Geno Smith, Raiders: He’s being mentioned simply to say he’s not on the hot seat. He has .5 million in guarantees for 2026, and his close ties to Pete Carroll will keep Smith around for at least two years. (Unless, of course, a certain minority owner decides otherwise.)Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars: Every new coach wants his own quarterback, except when the coach inherits a true franchise quarterback. But Tony Dungy landing with Peyton Manning doesn’t happen very often. And it’s not clear whether Lawrence is a short-list franchise quarterback. He was on track to be one as of 2022. The past two years haven’t been good enough, long-term contract notwithstanding. What do coach Liam Coen and G.M. James Gladstone want? If Lawrence doesn’t play better in 2025 than he did in 2024, Lawrence and everyone else may find out in 2026.Aaron Rodgers, Steelers: He says he’s pretty sure this is his last year. If he doesn’t play well enough for the Steelers in 2025 and if he wants to keep playing in 2026, the Steelers may give him the same cold shoulder that Russell Wilson got after 2024.J.J. McCarthy, Vikings: He’s getting his shot to play, after a knee injury wiped out his rookie season. Anything other than an outright disaster will ensure his status for 2026. At worst, he’d have to compete with a more established veteran next year.That’s a lot of names. But it’s no surprise. There aren’t many true, unquestioned, year-after-year franchise quarterbacks. And the teams that don’t have one are always hoping to find one.

We’ve recently taken a look at the coaches on the hot seat for 2025. This week, a reader asked the same question as it relates to quarterbacks.Jordan Love, Packers: He’s not on the hot seat per se, but he needs to play better in 2025 than he did in 2024. If not, he will be on the hot seat in 2026. The wild card in Green Bay is new CEO Ed Policy, who operates as the de facto owner of the team.Kyler Murray, Cardinals: His contract gives him two more years of financial security. But this is the team that drafted Murray a year after using the 10th overall pick on Josh Rosen (not Lamar Jackson). So who knows what the Cardinals will do if Murray doesn’t propel the team into contention this year?Bryce Young, Panthers: In year three, he needs to continue the growth he showed late in the 2024 season, in order to secure a fourth season, the fifth-year option, and ideally (for him) a second contract.Sam Darnold, Seahawks: He has a one-year deal, as a practical matter. And the Seahawks seem to really like rookie Jalen Milroe. Darnold will need to play very well to secure his status for 2026.Tyler Shough, Saints: He’ll need to do enough in 2025 to earn the chance to do well enough in 2026 to get the Saints to not pursue the grandson of Archie Manning in 2027. (And, yes, I think Arch Manning will spend two years as a college starter before entering the draft.)Dak Prescott, Cowboys: He’s probably not on the hot seat, because his million per year contract would wreak havoc on the salary cap if the Cowboys were to cut or trade him (yes, he has a no-trade clause, but he can waive it) in 2026. The complication for the Cowboys is that his million salary for 2027 becomes fully guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2026 league year. They’re basically stuck — all because they waited too long to give him his second contract, and then waited too long to give him his third contract.All Browns quarterbacks: With Jacksonville’s first-round pick in their back pocket, the Browns could be in position to get a future franchise quarterback in next year’s draft. That raises the stakes for every quarterback currently on the Cleveland roster. Because there’s a chance none of them will be the starter in 2026.It has created more quarterback movement in recent years than ever before. Plenty of the names listed above will be on the move in 2026.Justin Fields, Jets: His contract has million in guarantees that spill into 2026. That’s not enough to guarantee him two years as the starter. He needs to do enough in 2025 to earn 2026 — and beyond.Matthew Stafford, Rams: It’s not the “hot seat” as much as it’s a mutual understanding that player and team are taking things one year at a time. After the season, both sides will have to recommit. Whether the Rams will want to do that depends on how Stafford plays in 2025, and on their other options for staffing the position in 2026.Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins: His contract guarantees his pay through 2026. If the Dolphins fall flat and change coaches, the next coach likely will want a fresh start at quarterback. While the cap charges will complicate a split before 2027, every high-end quarterback contract eventually leads to a big cap charge when the relationship ends. The next coach (and the next G.M., if owner Stephen Ross cleans house) may want to rip the Band-Aid off in one motion.Plenty of them are feeling the heat, or should be, this season. Let’s take a look at each spot, based on the loose arrangement of the conferences and divisions that has been tattooed onto my brain.Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson, Colts: It already feels like Jones will be the Week 1 starter. He’ll then have a chance to lock the revolving door the Colts have had since Andrew Luck retired. If he doesn’t, the Colts will be looking elsewhere in 2026. As to Richardson, his best play is to play better than he ever has, if and when he gets the chance.You know, we just wrapped up dissecting which coaches might be staring down the barrel in 2025, and wouldn’t you know it — a reader nudged me this week with a fresh question: what about the quarterbacks? Ah, the signal callers — the heartbeat of every franchise, the guys who can make or break a season with one throw or one fumble. Some are sweating through their cleats already this year; others should be. So buckle up, because we’re about to navigate the landscape of QBs teetering on the brink, framed by my own mental map of conferences and divisions. From Justin Fields needing to prove he’s worth more than a sliver of guaranteed cash with the Jets, to veterans like Aaron Rodgers potentially tipping their hats for the last time, and rookies or second-year players fighting for a shot at securing their future — it’s a wild chessboard. And trust me, not everyone’s throne is safe come 2026. This isn’t just roster review; it’s a pulse check on the NFL’s most coveted and pressured positions. Ready to dive deeper? LEARN MORE