Perez’s Next Move Could Shake Up Braves’ Future—Is the Team Ready?

Ever catch yourself doubling down on a bet, only to have the season throw you a curveball you never saw coming? That’s the wild ride we’re on with tonight’s Marlins-Braves showdown at 7:15 ET. If you’d asked me back in spring training which team would be limping near .500 and which would be nearly 20 games under… well, I’d have called it backwards. The Marlins—this elusive squad people forget they even root for—are quietly hanging around, maybe even plotting a playoff push, all while most can’t name half their roster. Meanwhile, the Braves, once the toast of the division, seem to have lost their mojo somewhere between the cracks of a frustratingly rough year. Pitchers Eury Perez and Carlos Carrasco will carry the weight on the mound as each team desperately seeks a spark. Will Miami’s surprise season continue to defy expectations? Or is Atlanta ready to shake off the dust and remind us why they’ve been a powerhouse? Grab your popcorn—and maybe your bet slip—because this game might just rewrite the script. LEARN MORE

Marlins vs. Braves, 7:15 ET

Sports betting means you need to constantly evaluate things. You make first assumptions about teams before they start, then you need to adjust to what happens during the games. At the start of the year, if you looked at this schedule and the season, you probably would’ve assumed that the teams in today’s contest would’ve been in opposite places. The Marlins are a game below .500 for the season, and the Braves are almost 20 games under they square off today.

The Marlins are surprisingly successful this season. I’d challenge most people to name five players on their team. Sometimes things just work out for a club, and I feel like Miami has that happen more than any franchise. This is also considering that they essentially don’t try to field a winning team for more than a year at a time. They do have young and controllable players, but they are in a tough division with two teams who have rosters that are not going away – though the Phillies could lose at least one key player this offseason. Still, this is a good building year if the Marlins ownership actually chooses to be successful. They have a pretty solid pitcher on the hill today, Eury Perez. He has a 4-3 record with a 2.70 ERA, and a 0.94 WHIP. He has only completed 50 innings this season, and he has 51 strikeouts. The biggest issue is that he struggles with control at the moment. He has 18 walks so far this season, if he can adjust that, he could be a very good pitcher. Braves hitters have been good against him, batting .350 in 20 at-bats against Perez in his career. He allowed three earned runs over 4.2 innings earlier in the year against Atlanta.Â

The Braves are surprisingly terrible this year. At first, it seemed like it was just a slow start, now it looks like all of the magic the team has had for the past few years is gone. They were able to navigate all of the injuries, comeback stories, and everything else to get into the playoffs as one of the best teams for the past few seasons. This year started poorly, and it has continued. It is a bit difficult to put your finger on specifically what is causing them to struggle so much. They have better pitching numbers than Miami, and their offense isn’t that bad. However, they have stretches where they just don’t play great baseball. This is currently one of them, having lost four of their past five games. They turn to Carlos Carrasco to try and turn their fates around. Carrasco is 2-2 with a 5.68 ERA for the year. He also owns a 1.53 WHIP. He does have a lower home ERA, but that’s somewhat irrelevant as he was with the Yankees before last week. In his first start for the Braves, he faced the Reds and held them to just three earned runs over six innings. The Marlins only have a few hitters who have faced Carrasco, and they are just 2-for-3 against him.

The Marlins are still fighting for the playoffs, as crazy as that may sound. Taking the opening game against a reeling Braves team would help. The line has moved significantly in favor of the Braves today, despite the Marlins still being the favorite. I agree with the line move, but am not sure I want to back the line. I lean to the under for the game, but the best bet here is to take Perez to go over 5.5 strikeouts. He had six against them the first time, and has had six or more in five of his 10 starts this season.Â

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