Unveiled: The Surprising Quarterbacks Poised to Dominate the Upcoming Season

When you think NFL quarterbacks today, names like Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, and Hurts immediately come to mind—they’re the creme de la creme, the playmakers who’ve shaped championships and MVP races alike. But here’s a question that’s been buzzing on my mind: who’s the next generation ready to step into those colossal cleats? It’s a tricky puzzle because breakouts at quarterback aren’t just about flashy stats—they’re about that leap from good to legendary, the kind that rewrites expectations and rewires offenses. Diving deep into the QB EVE ratings, which crunch expected passing performances and add scrambles into the mix, a few intriguing names emerge—Jayden Daniels, Jordan Love, Caleb Williams—young guns on the edge of something special. These guys are under 27, just scratching the surface of their potential, poised for that pivotal season where they flip the switch. So, who’s got what it takes to join the elite circle? Let’s unpack the data and the stories behind these rising stars and see who might rewrite the quarterback playbook in 2025. LEARN MORE.

Mahomes, Allen, Lamar and Hurts represent the top tier of QBs in the NFL. But who is in the next wave of ascending quarterbacks? We dipped into our QB EVE ratings to find out.

They run the offense, deliver the big plays and set up the team for success (or failure).

Of course, quarterback is the most important position in football. That’s why it’s not a surprise the best NFL teams also have the best quarterbacks.

Both the MVP voting and the Super Bowl matchups in recent years confirm that notion. In 2024, it was Josh Allen versus Lamar Jackson for MVP and Patrick Mahomes against Jalen Hurts in the Super Bowl.

In 2023, Jackson won MVP while Mahomes won the Super Bowl. In 2022, Mahomes and Hurts faced off again in the Super Bowl and were the top two vote-getters for MVP, with Allen right behind.

That quartet of Mahomes, Allen, Hurts and Jackson represent the top tier of quarterbacks in the NFL. While an argument could be made for a few others to join them, there’s no debate with the aforementioned group.

But who is in the next wave of ascending quarterbacks?

That’s a tougher question to answer. Breakouts at the quarterback position are a little different from other positions. Rather than look at patterns of play, we’re looking for quarterbacks with established production on the field who will make the jump from average to elite.

And that top tier of quarterbacks offers a similar roadmap. 

All four of them had their breakouts at various points in their careers – Mahomes and Jackson put together MVP seasons in their first year as a full-time starter in 2018 and 2019, respectively, Allen developed into a dual-threat juggernaut in 2020, and Hurts went from run-first quarterback to an efficient machine who led the Eagles to the Super Bowl in 2022.

To find the next breakout quarterbacks in 2025, we dipped into our quarterback EVE rating model. This looks at a player’s QB EVE (Efficiency Versus Expected) but exclusively through the lens of expected passing situations, including scrambles. 

The list includes the usual suspects of names you’d see on any top list of quarterbacks. However, there are a few surprising picks at the top and one that made the top 10: Jayden Daniels, Jordan Love and Caleb Williams.

Here are our 2024 QB EVE ratings, which looks at yards above expected in expected passing situations.

All three are young and ascending players at the position. Daniels and Williams are entering their second seasons, and Love is entering his third as the Packers’ starter.

All three are under the age of 27, too.

Here’s one reason why each could develop into an elite quarterback in 2025.

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

Daniels excelled in a lot of ways on his way to taking home the 2024 NFL Rookie of the Year Award. He completed 69.0% of his passes for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions on top of rushing 148 times for 891 yards and six additional scores.

Some may say he’s already reached elite status after leading Washington to 12 wins and a trip to the NFC championship game, but Daniels can climb even higher, as evidenced by his QB EVE rating.

Perhaps the most intriguing part of Daniel’s makeup is his accuracy. Not only was his completion rate sixth-best in the NFL, but Daniels also threw players open with an NFL-best 84.5% open rate. He also doesn’t throw passes that can be easily intercepted.

Daniels’ 3.00% pickable pass rate ranked 11th among qualified quarterbacks, right below Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson and Tua Tagovailoa. Juxtaposed to his 81.1% catchable ball rate (how often a pass is deemed catchable by the receiver, regardless of the outcome), Daniels is already in the same area that Jackson and Mahomes operate in.

Daniels fits the mold of a quarterback who can easily make the jump from great to the best after just one season. His blend of rushing upside combined with his skill set as a playmaker put him on the same tier as Jackson, Allen and Hurts.

Another year with similar production could cement Daniels’ status as a top NFL quarterback.

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

If not for some injury issues, Love could have already had his breakout season in 2024.

He missed two games but completed 63.1% of his passes for 3,389 yards, 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. While those numbers aren’t electric, Love’s 8.0 yards per attempt ranked fifth among starting quarterbacks behind only Jackson, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy and Hurts.

Love showcased his talents in the second half of the season (Weeks 12 to 18) when he was fully healthy. He completed 64.3% of his passes for 1,308 yards, nine touchdowns and zero interceptions during that stretch.

Love has the makings of a great quarterback based on his body of work after two seasons running the Packers offense. However, his deep ball is where he can truly elevate his game. This was one of the many reasons the Packers were interested in Love when they took him No. 20 in the 2020 NFL Draft and sat him behind Aaron Rodgers for three seasons.

Love’s 8.91 average air yards per attempt ranked eighth among 31 quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts in 2024 who could be starters in 2025. His 21.59 average air yards on throws of at least 10 air yards or more ranked first among 27 quarterbacks who qualified. 

Where Love needs to get better is with his accuracy – but even that is still solid relative to how deep he throws. His 43.2% completion rate is low (24th) among that group, but it puts him into the same realm as Allen.

That’s a good place to be at this stage in his career. 

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

Williams’ inclusion may be a bit of a surprise compared to other names here, but his career projects well. Despite an up-and-down rookie season, Williams flashed with 3,541 passing yards, 20 touchdowns and just six interceptions with a completion rate of 62.5%.

But he could take an even bigger step in his sophomore year given his new head coach and how often Williams operates in structured vs. unstructured settings. 

The Bears quarterback finished with an ID% – or “in-design rate” – of 71.7%, which ranked ninth out of the 32 qualified quarterbacks. ID% measures how many of a quarterback’s throws unfold within the envisioned play call instead of ones that are the result of scrambles, pressures, or other out-of-structure types of throws.

This is a good sweet spot for Williams, especially because he’ll now play in a Ben Johnson offense that helped transform Jared Goff into a consistent starting quarterback. If he can continue to operate mostly within Johnson’s designed plays, Williams can continue to grow. 

For ID%, we don’t want a quarterback who only plays in structure or someone who leans on his scrambling ability to make plays out of structure on an unsustainable basis.

For example, Michael Penix Jr., Baker Mayfield and Tua Tagovailoa had the highest ID% among all starters who ended the season in 2024. Brock Purdy, Bo Nix and Lamar Jackson were among the lowest ID%.

Williams’ ID% is right around Daniels, Goff, Matthew Stafford and Justin Herbert. And when we compare Williams’ ID% with his completion percentage, he looks to be around the same area as Justin Herbert and Matthew Stafford.

So while Williams didn’t have sensational numbers that project superstardom on their own, his style of play fits well in an offense like Johnson’s that focuses on a quarterback’s strength rather than a particular system.

This, paired with a new offensive line and some new skill position players, give Williams a good shot to breakout in his second season. 

For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.

The post The Next Wave: Three Quarterbacks Who Appear on the Verge of a Breakout Season appeared first on Opta Analyst.

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