Inside the Unexpected Shift: Why Smart Money Is Surging on Tennessee Titans Over Atlanta Falcons

Betting NFL preseason games? Honestly, it’s a love-hate dance for me — more hate than love, if I’m honest. While I’ve always believed that if you can crack the code and cash in, more power to you, I just don’t have the nerve for it. That said, boredom has led me down a familiar rabbit hole this Friday night: the Tennessee Titans (0-1) squaring off against the Atlanta Falcons (0-1). The oddsmakers opened Tennessee at -3.5 favorites, yet nearly 90% of the bets are backing Atlanta, nudging the Titans down to -3. Now, isn’t it peculiar how a team that looked so dismal against Tampa Bay and stumbled all week in practice still holds the favorite status? Digging deeper, I found it’s not just about last week’s scoreline — it’s about depth, motivation, and a quarterback shuffle that might just tilt the scales. So why fade the heavy public favorite? Because sometimes, the market’s silence—or stubborn hold—speaks louder than the crowd. Curious how this all pieces together? LEARN MORE.

My position on betting NFL preseason has always been “While it’s not for me, ‘different strokes for different folks’”. Meaning, if you can win betting preseason football, by all means. I just don’t have the stomach for it. However, I’m so effing bored right now, I’m gambling on this Tennessee Titans (0-1) at Atlanta Falcons (0-1) preseason game Friday. 

Tennessee opened as -3.5 favorites at BetMGM, but nearly 90% of the action is on Atlanta as of Friday morning. Hence, the Titans are down to -3.  Last week, slight underdogs were bet up to favorites in several games. Per BetMGM, the Falcons are the most bet team this week in the preseason. Yet, Tennessee remains a field-goal favorite. Hmm … 

Whenever I see this line movement, or lack thereof in this case, I try to figure out why. The Titans were an abject disaster in their 29-7 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. They have looked terrible all week during their joint practice with the Falcons, whose backup quarterback, Easton Stick, looked good last week in a 17-10 loss to the Detroit Lions. 

After reflecting on this matchup, I’ve come up with a few reasons why Tennessee is still a -3 favorite and talked myself into “fading the market” Friday. First, the Titans have a deeper quarterback room. Atlanta is resting first-string QB Michael Penix Jr. and second-string QB Kirk Cousins, while Tennessee will give 2025 No. 1 overall pick, QB Cam Ward, more reps this week. 

Furthermore, the Titans cut former third-string QB Tim Boyle, who threw two interceptions and had a 0.6 QB Rating vs. Tampa last week. Tennessee replaced him with QB Trevor Siemian, who should have an NFL job over Boyle, anyway. Siemian is 15-18 in his career as a starter with a 78.7 QB Rating, while Boyle is 0-5 with a 58.1 QB Rating. 

Lastly, the Titans have an edge in motivation, which is a huge factor in the NFL preseason. Not only did the Titans get embarrassed by the Buccaneers last week, but Tennessee is getting whooped on by the Falcons this week. Given the motivation, the QB depth advantage, and the market keeping this spread at -3 despite the public hammering Atlanta, I’m taking the Titans -3. 

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