Why This Season Could Be the Bills’ Most Unstoppable Yet

Every year, the AFC crown jewels give us the same ol’ song and dance: Chiefs dominate the spotlight, while everyone else watches—and wonders—if they can finally break through. The Bills? Oh, they’re the perennial bridesmaids of the conference, consistently fantastic but somehow stuck just shy of the promised land. With Josh Allen throwing heat and making magic with his legs, and a defense trying out shiny new toys like Joey Bosa to finally push past the elastic Chiefs, Buffalo’s season beckons with all the promise—and that nagging uncertainty—of a Hollywood thriller. Will the Bills keep up their strange win pattern, or is this the year they flip the script and smash the 11.5 win total? As always, it’s a story worth watching—and betting on. LEARN MORE.

Buffalo Bills Win Total

It seems like it is an annual tradition at this point to pick a team from the AFC to win and go onto the Super Bowl. The easy choice is to just take the Chiefs and move on. It is a logical choice as they’ve made it to five of them already. When you start to count them out, they end up winning anyway. You can say it is due to the referees or you can say it due to something else, I really don’t care, because they are successful. There are a couple of other teams who have had sustained success, but have been thwarted by the Chiefs. One is the Bills, who will once again run the AFC East. 

The Bills last season went 13-4 and lost in the playoffs. It seems like an annual occurrence for the boys from Buffalo. The team starts with Josh Allen, the man who has been unreal the past few years. Not only does he have a great arm, he makes an impact with his legs and keeps his team in virtually every game. In the four losses last season, the Bills only had one loss that was by more than one possession. That was a loss to the Ravens, a game they dropped by 25 points. In the playoffs, they got their revenge, hosting the Ravens and winning 27-25. Then they had to face Kansas City and once again lost to the Chiefs with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. 

How have the Bills changed from last year to this year? The biggest change arguably has come on the defense. They went from having Vonn Miller to having Joey Bosa, which should be an upgrade if he can stay healthy. He has only played 16 games three times in his career, but he was able to play 14 last season, so perhaps he is on the right track. Bosa should give the defense an added push. They were already a good unit, but this year they could take a small step forward. I like their cornerbacks, and another addition to their team is Tre’Davious White. White was originally a Bill to start his career, he spent the past two seasons in Los Angeles and Baltimore. He has only played a total of 21 games over the past four seasons, so health is a concern for him as well. 

On offense, the Bills have their typical cast of characters. It almost doesn’t matter who is on the field for Buffalo, they can make an impact. Josh Allen has one of the worst receiving corps of all of the top quarterbacks. Khalil Shakir is solid and had a nice year last year, but still only had four touchdowns. Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox should both be decent blocking and receiving tight ends for the club, but again, neither is all that impressive. James Cook ended up getting the contract he wanted, so their running game should be good, and they are behind a solid offensive line which profootballnetwork.com has ranked as the fourth best in the sport. Give Allen time, he will find his open receivers, no matter how good or bad they are. 

This team is going to win the AFC East, but at -330, it just isn’t worth it. The Bills are also a heavily juiced -175 to get over 11.5 wins. Over the past six seasons, there has been a bit of a pattern with the Bills. Starting in 2019, they won 10 games. Then they won 13. Then 11. Then 13. Then 11. Then 13. By that pace, they probably should go under the 11.5 wins. Unfortuantely, I’m looking at this schedule, and I think the pattern stops here. I see them winning 13 games. Betting the over 11.5 isn’t a sexy pick, but you can wet your beak a bit more if you want to go over 12.5. I’ll do both. 

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