Why No One Saw Texans Dominating the AFC South Again—Until Now

When you think of the AFC South, what comes to mind? A division bubbling with promise or a battleground of inconsistent performances? This week, Geoff Clark and I dove deep over on the Outkick Bets podcast, hashing out every team in the AFC—I’ve got to admit, it’s always a blast debating with Geoff, especially when our takes don’t always line up. Like my bullish stance on the Steelers versus his optimism about the Jaguars, which I’m just not buying. But the real nugget we dissected? Who’s snagging the crown in the AFC South this year? The Texans showed last season that they can grit out a division win, though not without some nail-biters. Meanwhile, the Colts are grappling with quarterback quandaries, the Jaguars cling to hope amidst skepticism, and the Titans are quietly piecing together their arsenal. So, will Houston maintain their hold, or is the door open for a dark horse to romp? Buckle up, because this preview might just shake up what you thought you knew about this division. LEARN MORE.

AFC South Preview

If you haven’t listened, you should give the Outkick Bets podcast a chance. Geoff Clark and I went into full detail about every NFL team, specifically about the AFC this week, but we did the NFC the previous week. It is always good chopping it up with Geoff and discussing his thoughts on the teams. We align on a lot of different teams, but there were some different ones – I’m high on the Steelers, he is not, for example. He likes the Jaguars, I do not. Give it a chance and let me know what you think. One of the things we talked about is the winner of the AFC South, and that’s what made me think this might be a good article as well. 

Houston Texans – 1st Place Last Year, 10-7

The Texans are one of those teams that you can either love or hate. They are very frustrating in some ways, and in others, you need to be impressed with them. Last year, they were able to get the win for the division, but it wasn’t a very comfortable capture until later in the season. After starting the year 6-2, the team ended by going 4-5. They were good against their division, going 5-1 in the six games against their opponents. I would say that all three did improve year-over-year, but did the Texans? I think they did. Joe Mixon was a great addition to the team last year, but he is questionable to start the season. They will rely on Nick Chubb if he is out. The offense has quite a few good pieces with Nico Collins and Christian Kirk at receiver. Their defense should be good, so there are few things I’m really worried about for the team. The Ringer ranks the Texans as the second-best defense in football.

Indianapolis Colts, 2nd place, 8-9

You know what is never a great way to start a season? Having a quarterback battle to start your year. I don’t love the Colts offense, mostly because their options are a bad Daniel Jones, or a bad Anthony Richardson. Both have flashes of talent and have shown moments of being very good. One thing I mentioned on the podcast is that Jones has been decent on the road – away from New York. Perhaps it was a coincidence, but the stats were the stats. They have decent receivers and a very good running back. Their defense is probably decent enough. I like some of their position players, but their defensive coordinator probably took a big step back. 

Jacksonville Jaguars, 3rd place, 4-13

I am not a Trevor Lawrence guy. I think he has been overhyped and underperformed. He only played in 10 games last season, so maybe holding last year against him isn’t quite fair. However, despite my feelings about Lawrence, he has been at least decent. He hasn’t been a top-10 guy, but serviceable, certainly, especially in 2022. I’m not big on their running game, but they have some interesting options for wide receiver. They will allow Trvis Hunter to play on both sides of the ball, which should be unique. I’m not convinced he will be effective on both sides of the ball. Jacksonville’s defense was terrible last year, and I don’t think they will improve all that much this season. If they get to six wins, that’s probably good, but are we really expecting 10 wins out of them? I don’t think so.

Tennessee Titans, 4th place, 3-14

One of the most important things on your team is, of course, to have a great quarterback, but if you have any hope at quarterback, giving him solid weapons should be a priority. The Titans have somewhat done that. I actually like their combination of receivers with Calvin Ridley, Tyler Lockett, and Van Jefferson. Tony Pollard is nothing special as a running back, but with a good offensive line any running back can be successful. Unfortunately, their line is not ranked highly. That could be a problem for Pollard and also for Cam Ward, their rookie quarterback. There are a lot of questions on defense here as well. 

The Washington Commanders made a bit jump last year with Jayden Daniels under center. However, I am not expecting that the Titans make that type of jump. Lawrence, Ward, Stroud, and Jones are all decent enough options for quarterback, but Stroud is probably the best. The Texans are the cream of this division, and should be able to avoid any sort of massive improvement from the Jaguars and Titans. I think the Colts will also take a step back. I’m taking Houston to win the division. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024