Could This Super Bowl Star Become the Next MVP?

Ever wonder why betting on the NFL MVP feels a bit like trying to predict the weather with a broken barometer? Injuries, slumps, hot streaks that fizzle—these twists make wagering on season-long awards a rollercoaster of thrills and spills. But here’s the kicker: since 2001, the MVP crown has pretty much been the quarterback’s kingdom, with only three running backs sneaking into the fortress. And surprise, surprise—most winners are repeat performers, making familiarity a potent factor in this high-stakes game. As last season’s champ Josh Allen vies to defend his title against heavy hitters like Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, it raises a juicy question: do you bet on proven excellence, or gamble on the underdog’s breakout? Between Jackson’s electric dual-threat prowess, Burrow’s high-yardage gunslinging, and the dark horses like Hurts and Murray, the field is set for some serious intrigue. So, buckle up—let’s break down the odds, the stats, and those gut feelings that just might help you call the next MVP before the crowd roars. LEARN MORE.

NFL MVP Award

Betting on season-long awards is always a risk. Some injuries can come into play, teams can underperform, and there are rough starts that just don’t ever get surpassed. On the other hand of that, a hot start from someone might slow down over the course of the year. You’re really looking for someone who will be consistent, great, and hopefully have a good team. I’m going to break down the NFL MVP betting market a bit here and see who we should take for this season’s award.

To understand who we should be on this year, we probably want to know who has won in the past. That’s usually a pretty good indicator of what to examine and look at for future voting. Since 2001, there have been exactly three non-quarterbacks to win the award. Those three winners are Shaun Alexander, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Adrian Peterson. We’ve also seen Peyton Manning win five MVPs, Aaron Rodgers win four, Tom Brady win three, and Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson both win two awards. That’s sixteen awards right there, and then three other for the running back puts us at 19 of the 25. So, what can we learn from this – basically that we can expect the award to go to a quarterback, and that it is highly likely it will go to someone that has probably won one already.

Josh Allen won last year; Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes both have two awards under their belt. It should come as no surprise, then, that the three of them are in the top four of voting odds. Mahomes is actually further back than Jackson and Allen. Looking at the statistics, we see that Allen probably had a worse year last year than two years ago, and Jackson had a better year last year than he did in his MVP season. Voter fatigue and makeup calls come into play which is part of the reason Allen won last year. We can count out Aaron Rodgers, even though he is still playing, Brady and Manning are retired. 

Who should we bet on? Jackson would be my favorite if I was making the odds for this award. Last season, Jackson threw for 4,172 yards, good for sixth in league. He was tied for second with 41 touchdown passes, and he only had four interceptions. He was first overall in QBR. Add in the fact that he had a winning team, and another 915 rushing yards and four touchdowns. This was by far the best season of Jackson’s great career. I don’t know that he can improve on the performance, but if he can, he will definitely win the award. I think even if he comes close, he will win as he deserved it last year and didn’t get it. 

Joe Burrow is another good choice as he is likely going to have the green light to launch the ball at all times. Burrow threw for almost 5,000 yards last year and had 43 touchdown passes. The problem was that his team sucked. That should probably be the problem once again this year. The question is if Burrow can replicate his season, and I think he can. The floor for Jackson is probably 20 touchdown passes, while the floor for Burrow is probably 30. Allen is likely to replicate a successful year and is arguably the best player in the league. However, I don’t think Allen’s season from last year was that impressive, it was more of a makeup for losing the MVP in 2023. 

One long shot you might consider is Jalen Hurts. He didn’t have a very impressive regular season, getting just under 3,000 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, and five interceptions last year. He did end 10th in QBR, and added 630 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. My justification for this is more of a feel than anything else. Essentially, Hurts won the Super Bowl last year, and I expect this year to be his “look at me” year. The team accomplished what they wanted, now he will want to accomplish his individual goals. The Eagles may let him do just that. If he gets to 30 passing touchdowns and another double digits on the ground, you could see him win the award as the Eagles are still going to be very good. 

One last suggestion that I have for you is to take Kyler Murray. I’m not a huge believer in Murray, but I expect a strong year from the Cardinals. Murray has a similar role to Hurts, but not nearly as good of a team or weapons. Murray can run wild on defenses and if Marvin Harrison Jr. takes a big step forward, we could see Murray also get to 30 passing touchdown this season. He is coming off one of his best seasons as well, so hopefully being in the same system will help. 

I’m not into taking favorites, but I’d back Burrow if we had to take one of them. I much rather take big risks for lower value. For example, if I was going to spend $100 on betting on the MVP for this year, I’d put $50 on Burrow, and $25 each on Hurts and Murray. 

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