Clay Travis Predicts Shocking Upset: Can Texas Crush the Defending Champs in Week 1?

Ah, college football is back — and with it, my 15th straight season of turning your bets into sweet, sweet wins here on OutKick. Can you believe it’s been that long? Heck, Bill Belichick’s girlfriend was barely out of grade school when I started this journey. Time flies, but the thrill of the gridiron never fades. This fall, I’ll be crisscrossing the South, dropping hot takes on Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff, firing off my Starting 11 column every Sunday (except that Tuesday kick-off week—it’s game day chaos, after all), and serving up both college and NFL picks. Not to mention “The Fade” with Kelly hitting Vegas every Thursday—because why should only the pros have all the fun?
So buckle up, because the season promises high drama, underdogs ready to bite, and my best shot at keeping you in the green. Ready to tease out which teams might surprise and which coaches better win their first games — or else? Let’s dive into Week 1 with a dozen solid picks designed to fatten your wallet and sharpen your edge.
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It’s that time again — college football season has returned. 

And with it, the 15th! consecutive season of me making you all rich with my college football gambling picks on OutKick. I appreciate all of the OGs out there who have been riding with the weekly picks since all the way back in 2011. That was so long ago Bill Belichick’s girlfriend was only 9 years old.  

Moving right along, I’ll be on the road this fall for many big games all over the South — and doing TV hits for Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff show from those biggest games — and I’ll also be doing my usual Starting 11 column every Sunday morning — except for Tuesday in Week 1 to allow for all the game action to be played — and giving you weekly college and NFL picks. Plus, “The Fade” with Kelly in Vegas will return every Thursday as well. 

So, needless to say, a super busy fall season as always.  

With that in mind, let’s start the winning with 12 great picks for Week 1:

Auburn -2.5 vs Baylor 

Sometimes you just look at a game — given what the offseason has been like — and you think to yourself, boy, (insert head coach) better win this first game. 

That coach is Hugh Freeze this year and the team he’d better beat is Baylor. 

Because if he doesn’t, the wheels are going to come off in a hurry on the Plains. 

I don’t know how it will happen, but Auburn is going to win this game by a field goal or more.

And Hugh Freeze is going to celebrate the win by golfing 36 holes on Sunday. 

I’m kidding. 

He’s only playing 18.  

In all seriousness, I’m a big Freeze fan and I think he’s ecstatic the season is finally here. And he gets us our first win and cover of the season. 

Georgia Tech -4.5 vs. Colorado

I believe Brent Key has slowly built his team into a reflection of himself — tough, tenacious, not always pretty, but ultimately nasty enough to win tough games. 

On the flip side, honestly, I’ve been very impressed with what Deion has done at Colorado, but he’s had a brutal offseason health wise and I’m not sure Colorado is built to be a long term winner here. 

And I think Georgia Tech has been. 

Give me the Yellow Jackets to win by a touchdown or more. 

Texas +2.5 at Ohio State and the under 47.5

Ohio State is breaking in a new, young quarterback and Texas has an incredibly elite defense going on the road against a defending national champion. 

Sound familiar?

It should. 

It’s basically a rematch of last year’s Longhorn game at Michigan. 

All the attention is on Arch Manning entering this game, but I think the Texas defense dominates this game, sucks all the energy out of the Shoe and Texas wins a 27-17 slugfest with a couple of big conversions coming from Arch’s legs. 

Hook ’em, outright, and the under. 

Syracuse vs. Tennessee, the under 50.5

Everyone expects fireworks from Josh Heupel’s offense, but the truth is last year’s Tennessee team was primarily a running team that relied on a great defense. 

With a new quarterback and a bevy of young receivers, I think Tennessee relies on a much improved, but young, offensive line to ground and pound out this game. 

We’ll find out about Joey Aguilar and the Tennessee offense by later in the season, but not yet. 

This one is all about the Vol defense — Tennessee wins 24-13. 

Toledo +9.5 at Kentucky

Honestly, Kentucky’s days of winning in the SEC, I believe, while fleeting under Mark Stoops, are over. 

Why?

They are spending too much of their money on basketball players now and they can’t compete for top football talent. 

Mark Stoops knows this, it’s why he looks so sad all the time. And it’s why the Wildcats shouldn’t be favored to beat anyone by double digits this year. 

MACTION for the cover!

Alabama at Florida State +13.5

I’ll be at this game with my 14-year-old Alabama fan son and, honestly, I’m rooting for chaos. 

The narrative swings from this one are stupendous: If Bama wins big the Tide faithful will be convinced Kalen DeBoer is the second coming of Saban. (“Remember Saban’s first year too, y’all! Roll Tide!”) But if, God forbid, this game is close down the stretch, as I think it will be, let’s just say I wouldn’t want to be DeBoer’s Tuscaloosa mailbox. 

In all seriousness, last year was a disaster of epic magnitude for Mike Norvell. That can’t continue if he wants to keep his job, the Seminoles cover, but the Tide wins by six.

(And I’m looking forward to my first trip to FSU. Let me know a good indoors spot to watch games since it looks like rain is coming.) 

LSU at Clemson, the over 57.5

One of the few games in week one where we have two super proven quarterback manning elite teams. 

Can LSU finally win in week one? Can Clemson demonstrate they are back near the top of the Southern heap?

I’ve got both teams scoring big and the over cashing midway through the fourth. 

Utah -6.5 at UCLA

There’s no way you’d bet on Utah to win just because you are still mad at Nico and his family, right, Clay?

You wouldn’t and couldn’t possibly be that petty, could you?

Of course not. 

I’m betting on Utah because Kyle Whittingham is a great defensive coach and UCLA had no offense last year and I’m expecting that to continue because Nico has major accuracy issues and doesn’t see blitzes well. 

Meaning load up on the Utes. 

(Also, yes, this is bitterness too. What a moron Nico and his family are for bailing on Tennessee after demanding more money for a mediocre first year.)

South Carolina vs. Virginia Tech +7.5

Last year the Hokie season began with an early upset loss to Vanderbilt and didn’t get much better from there. 

Now South Carolina with high ambition under Shane Beamer rolls into a neutral site game against a team seeking redemption. 

I think the Gamecocks get the win, but by three, not by more than a touchdown. 

Gobble, gobble — the Virginia version — for the cover. 

Notre Dame at Miami +2.5

Okay, here’s the deal, Notre Dame answered many of my questions last year — this team, other than the Northern Illinois debacle, performed at its best when the lights were brightest, something you typically haven’t been able to say about the Fighting Irish over the past couple of decades. 

Meanwhile Miami hasn’t really been able to take the next step under Mario Cristobal and really establish themselves as legit title contenders. 

Why?

Because their defense has flat out stunk. 

But, and this may be the wrong play, I think Miami will be better on defense this year and I believe Carson Beck will play very well, more like two years ago than the player we saw last year. 

The Hurricanes get the win and the cover. 

TCU at UNC, the under 56.5

Okay, hit the veins, boys and girls, it’s time for the blood bank guarantee. 

I have no idea how good UNC will be on offense this year, but I have complete faith in Bill Belichick to put in place a defensive gameplan that will stifle TCU and drag this game in the mud. (There’s a Bill Belichick’s 24 year old girlfriend mud wrestling joke to be made here, but I’m above that kind of juvenile humor.)

Which is why I’m going to just take the under and cash my blood bank guarantee winner. 

And celebrate going 12-0 by throwing a green dildo off my roof.

There you have it, boys and girls, let’s get rich. 

And welcome back for another college football season on OutKick!