Can the Big Ten Defy the Odds and Send Four Teams to the College Football Playoff Once More?
Who’s sneaking into the College Football Playoff as the Big Ten’s elusive fourth musketeer in 2025? We all know Ohio State and Penn State are looming large, and Oregon’s got momentum after that electric championship game showdown—but beyond that trio, the conference feels like an open field of possibilities. Could Indiana pull off back-to-back surprise seasons? Will Illinois, perched at number 12 in the AP preseason poll, shock the skeptics? Maybe USC’s close-game fortune finally swings their way. And let’s not forget Michigan—fresh off a national title two years ago and handing the reins to a QB wunderkind—is hungry to make noise once again. With last season’s success still fresh, the Big Ten looks primed to flood the playoff with contenders yet again, but who claims that mystery slot? Thanks to the cutting-edge Opta supercomputer and its TRACR model, we’re diving deep into advanced metrics, roster changes, and strength of schedule nuances to decode this year’s puzzle. Strap in—this preview blends analytics with a dash of unpredictability, spotlighting the powerhouse and the dark horses vying to steal the spotlight in one of college football’s most wide-open races. LEARN MORE
Penn State, Ohio State, Oregon and … ? We take a look at which team has the best chance to be that fourth playoff team. Here’s how the Big Ten looks heading into the 2025 FBS season.
Could Indiana have a second dream season in a row? Do you believe in Illinois, which is ranked 12th in the AP Top 25 preseason poll? Will close-game luck turn in USC’s favor?
And what about Michigan, which won the national championship two years ago and will turn over the QB job to a wunderkind?
The Big Ten put four teams in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff last season. The league has a good chance to get back to that number in 2025, but I have a hard time figuring out who will be the fourth team.
Penn State and national champion Ohio State would need to have lots go wrong to miss the field, and Oregon looks strong enough to get back, too. The league looks wide open this year after the top two or three teams, and that should make for a fun college football season.
What’s the Opta supercomputer’s outlook? It calculates its projections with the help of TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster), which combines play data from the prior season with adjustments for recruiting class rankings, transfer portal additions, and other offseason roster turnover.
(O-SUCC%=Offensive Success Rate, O-EXP%=Offensive Explosive Rate, D-SUCC%=Success Rate Allowed, D-EXP%=Explosive Rate Allowed)
The supercomputer also accounts for each team’s strength of schedule (both last year and this year) and then reaches a projected record for 2025. It’s important to note that because of differences in strength of schedule, a team can be No. 1 in the TRACR rankings but not projected to finish with the best record in the league.
Here’s a preseason field guide to the conference with notes, observations, advanced data points and season predictions. Teams are listed in the order of their 2025 Big Ten TRACR ranking.
1. Ohio State
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 1st
One scary thing: Ohio State will never be bad, but teams that lose as much as the Buckeyes lost from their title-winning team (including both coordinators) are very likely to step back, not forward, the next year. Sometimes that’s just the talent cycle. Can Ryan Day work around it?
One exciting thing: The Buckeyes’ offensive line was often a problem the last few years, but it jelled into a force as 2024 went on. I expect more growth this season. To that end …
Player to watch: Other than Jeremiah Smith, Caleb Downs and other stars? Keep an eye on left tackle Ethan Onianwa, a transfer from Rice whom the Buckeyes are entrusting with a lot.
Big Ten Projected Records
2. Penn State
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 3rd
One scary thing: Drew Allar is an objectively good college starting quarterback. But until he wins a big game against a program in the Nittany Lions’ weight class, skeptics will have reasonable fears about whether he’ll cough up a season-changing interception at the wrong time. He has a tough job after Penn State played for the Big Ten title in 2024.
One exciting thing: Running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen have returned, but Allar’s wide receivers were terrible last year. Penn State has aggressively addressed that problem by adding transfers Kyron Hudson (USC), Trebor Pena (Syracuse) and Devonte Ross (Troy). When Allar throws good passes this year, they will be caught.
Player to watch: Edge rusher Dani Dennis-Sutton had 10 adjusted sacks last year, only three behind superstar Abdul Carter. He’ll be defensive coordinator Jim Knowles’ most important pass rusher.
3. Oregon
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 4th
One scary thing: Wide receiver depth. Oregon loses its top two receivers from last year, Tez Johnson and Traeshon Holden, and No. 3 man Evan Stewart might miss the entire season with a knee problem. Penn State and Oregon played to a thrilling Big Ten championship game in 2024. The Ducks will need unproven commodities to emerge again.
One exciting thing: Dan Lanning and offensive coordinator Will Stein have a good track record of quickly helping new QBs have career years. Next on thde list: Dante Moore, a five-star transfer from UCLA who sat behind Dillon Gabriel last year. Moore in an offense that can protect the QB will be exciting.
Player to watch: Safety Dillon Thieneman, a transfer from Purdue and second-team All-Big Ten player. Remember Ohio State’s receivers running past the Ducks’ DBs in the Rose Bowl? Lanning does, too.
4. USC
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 5th
One scary thing: You can decide if this is scary or exciting: Lincoln Riley parted with his longtime strength coach over the summer in a move that people around the program pointed to as part of USC’s desire to improve its physicality. Will that work have paid dividends by Week 1? I don’t know.
One exciting thing: USC’s defense has more depth than at any time in Riley’s tenure, even though most of the top tacklers from last year’s team are gone. I’m interested in the development of sophomore edge-rusher Kameryn Fountain, who had a 19.5% pressure rate (team average: 15%) last fall.
Player to watch: Is Riley still the best quarterback developer in college football? The performance of Jayden Maiava – a former UNLV transfer who backed up Miller Moss before taking the job late last season – will tell us. Maiava represents a big bet by Riley on himself.
5. Indiana
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 2nd
One scary thing: Hitting on a transfer portal QB two years in a row isn’t easy. With Kurtis Rourke gone, former Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza steps in. Mendoza is solid but will make a big step up in competition quality, and he’ll have to play well to avert noticeable drop-off at the most important position.
One exciting thing: The offensive line was already good (fifth in the Big Ten in run disruption rate/first in pressure rate allowed) and has a chance to be even better with gobs of starting experience and a big-time transfer in center Pat Coogan from Notre Dame.
Player to watch: Edge rusher Mikail Kamara (13 adjusted sacks, 24.3% pressure rate) returns to again lead a pass rush that will heat up a lot of QBs.
6. Nebraska
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 8th
One scary thing: Linebackers were the best position on this team, but most of them are gone now. Inside backer Javin Wright wasn’t fully healthy last year and will be key to building continuity this year.
One exciting thing: Dylan Raiola had a difficult freshman season, but it’s worth pointing out what he did well. As a true freshman, he was right around the Big Ten average with an 80.1% well-thrown rate, 3.0% pickable pass rate (league average: 79.2% and 3.73%, respectively) and 5.9% sack per drop-back rate. With a better-looking supporting cast this year, it’s not hard to imagine a major sophomore leap from the five-star.
Player to watch: WR Dane Key, the leading receiver at Kentucky last year, transfers in to help Raiola. He’s the best receiver Nebraska has had in a handful of seasons.
7. Michigan
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 9th
One scary thing: Michigan’s receivers were a liability last year. They should be better this year, with a transfer corps led by Indiana’s Donaven McCulley, but they might still be shy of good. Plus, star tight end Colston Loveland has moved on to the NFL.
One exciting thing: Bryce Underwood will be taking the snaps at QB. Underwood’s upside is as high as any prep prospect who’s ever come into college football, and his physical skills are good enough that he should be effective in his first season.Â
Player to watch: The pass rush should be mean thanks to TJ Guy and Derrick Moore, who had a combined 19 adjusted sacks. Even without Josaiah Stewart (and with a restock at defensive tackle after Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham moved on), this defensive front will be good.
8. Illinois
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 10th
One scary thing: Can quarterback Luke Altmyer lead a team to the 10th or 11th seed in the playoff, especially without his best wide receivers from last year’s team? It’s a fair question.
One exciting thing: The secondary should be one of the best in the Big Ten, calling back to some of the elite units of the last few years that produced future NFL players like Devon Witherspoon and Sydney Brown.
Player to watch: Edge rusher Gabe Jacas is one of the best players in college football. By no means is he just a speed rusher, though. He paired his 12 adjusted sacks with 21 run stuffs, both team-leading figures. He’s a defensive tackle with a defensive end’s skill set, and vice versa.
9. Wisconsin
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 12th
One scary thing: For the second year in a row, the quarterback situation is bleak. Both Billy Edwards (Maryland) and Danny O’Neil (San Diego State) have starting experience, and neither has the look of someone who will elevate Wisconsin back to the upper class of the Big Ten.
One exciting thing: The Badgers have sized up on the defensive line and should be better than the team that allowed a 51% rushing success rate last year – 17th out of 18 Big Ten teams. I expect Wisconsin to look a little more like Wisconsin in this regard.
Player to watch: Receiver Vinny Anthony came on strong last year, putting up nearly 700 yards in an offense that didn’t have a capable passer. He might be Wisconsin’s best playmaker.
10. Washington
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 11th
One scary thing: Quarterback Demond Williams is an exciting prospect, but he took a sack on 16.3% of his drop backs last year – worst among Big Ten regulars – and on 45.8% of his pressures. Getting Williams and his linemen to avoid major negative plays will be key to the Huskies’ growth.
One exciting thing: Running back Jonah Coleman led the league in missed or broken tackles per touch and returns to pace the offense. He’s an all-conference talent.
Player to watch: Edge rusher Zach Durfee had big stats last year on a per-game basis, but he only played six games. Washington had an ineffective defensive front against the run and pass, and Durfee being healthier this year is the biggest reason to think that might change.
11. Minnesota
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 6th
One scary thing: The offensive line struggled to get downhill in the run game last year, preventing excellent RB Darius Taylor from having the season he could’ve had. Taylor will still be good, but will Minnesota’s linemen give him the proper room to run?
One exciting thing: PJ Fleck sounds very excited about redshirt freshman QB Drake Lindsey, a three-star prospect out of Arkansas who didn’t get a Razorbacks offer and wound up in the Twin Cities. Fleck has missed on some recent QB evaluations, of course, but he seems really insistent that Lindsey will be good.
Player to watch: WR Javon Tracy, a speedster who transferred in from Miami University. Tracy could provide some of the downfield playmaking that was a hallmark of the Gophers offense a few years ago, when several NFL receivers and tight ends were coming through the program.
12. Iowa
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 7th
One scary thing: Running back Kaleb Johnson carried this team last year, putting up after-contact numbers that hid a down year for the Iowa offensive line. He’s gone now, and the Hawkeyes will need to get back to a more typical standard of excellence in front of new rusher Kamari Moulton.
One exciting thing: Iowa’s offense wasn’t good last year under new coordinator Tim Lester, but it was much less pitiful than it had been under Brian Ferentz. Iowa even had a 7.9% explosive play rate, almost exactly in line with the Big Ten average. And No. 1 receiver Jacob Gill is back.
Player to watch: QB Mark Gronowski. If the South Dakota State transfer takes well to FBS, he will be Iowa’s best quarterback since Heisman Trophy contender Brad Banks in the 2000s. He was voted the Most Outstanding Player of two FCS national championship wins and received the 2023 Walter Payton Award.
13. UCLA
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 13th
One scary thing: The defense is depleted, with last year’s top 11 tacklers (including some really good players, like second-round NFL linebacker Carson Schwesinger) gone. The Bruins have had stars in the defensive front for several years now, but that might end in 2025.
One exciting thing: WR Kwazi Gilmer was a thrilling addition to the team as a true freshman, putting up 345 yards as he worked his way into the lineup gradually (seven starts). This year, he is the clear-cut best playmaking option at the skill positions.
Player to watch: QB Nico Iamaleava will face as much individual pressure as anybody in the country, given his acrimonious spring exit from a playoff team at Tennessee. It’s still not clear how good he is.
14. Michigan State
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 15th
One scary thing: QB Aidan Chiles has a big arm and averaged 10 air yards per attempt, one of the highest marks in the Power Four. Unfortunately, he also posted a 5.1% pickable pass rate, more than 20% higher than the Big Ten average. I still can’t tell if he’s good, but I am intrigued.
One exciting thing: In addition to one receiver who’s already good (more on him below), the Spartans added an all-star team of lower-level transfers from Conference USA, the MAC, and even Division II. If one or two of them pans out, Chiles could have a really good skill position group around him.
Player to watch: WR Nick Marsh was one of the best freshmen in college football last year. Even if Chiles doesn’t clean it up, Marsh will make a lot of big plays.
15. Northwestern
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 17th
One scary thing: There are many. The quarterback is Preston Stone, who lost his job at SMU. The offense was terrible across the board last year and has no clear source of explosive plays. The defense, long the program’s strength, was in the bottom third of the conference by both success rate and explosive play rate allowed last season.
One exciting thing: Edge rusher Aidan Hubbard returns after a six-sack season. The Northwestern defense has a handful of players who could be contributors on a really good team.
Player to watch: WR Griffin Wilde produced huge totals at FCS powerhouse South Dakota State. On a team severely lacking in exciting players, he is one.
16. Rutgers
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 14th
One scary thing: I am just not a big believer in QB Athan Kaliakmanis, the Minnesota transfer whose 72.5% well-thrown rate last year was third-worst among Big Ten starters.
One exciting thing: Rutgers has some legit playmakers. Running back Kyle Monangai is gone, but sophomore Antwan Raymond played a lot (and well) last year. Ian Strong and KJ Duff bring back 1,100 receiving yards. I don’t love the QB but do like the groups around him.
Player to watch: Middle linebacker DJ Djabome is one of the Big Ten’s most versatile players. He generated a 26% pressure rate on 73 pass rush snaps, led the team with 29 run stuffs, and limited receiving targets to a 43.9% burn rate (above average for his position) in coverage.
17. Maryland
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 16th
One scary thing: There are many scary things. Among them: Maryland lost four NFL Draft picks from a defense that wasn’t even good with them, and the offense will feel the losses of its top three receivers and running back Roman Hemby, who went to Indiana. Mike Locksley is on the warm seat.
One exciting thing: Maryland has a four-star true freshman QB in Malik Washington, who has captivated the fanbase like few other prospects in the program’s history. Like any blue-chip QB, he could flop. But Maryland finally has reason to be excited about the most important position. He may start Week 1, but either way, he’ll be behind center soon enough.
Player to watch: True freshman edge rusher Sidney Stewart has drawn rave camp reviews and might be the best rookie on the team – even ahead of Washington.
18. Purdue
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 18th
One scary thing: Purdue went 1-11 last year, and most of its best players left as new coach Barry Odom was taking over (the most notable departure: safety Dillon Thieneman to Oregon). This is a bad roster.
One exciting thing: Odom has been a high-floor coach across six seasons at Missouri and UNLV. It may not be this year, but he should get the Boilermakers out of the basement.
Player to watch: Running back Devin Mockobee, a former walk-on, was second among Big Ten running backs with 0.24 missed or broken tackles generated per touch last year. Perhaps out of loyalty to the program that gave him a shot, Mockobee did not leave after Purdue fired Ryan Walters.
Data modeling provided by Opta Analyst’s Greg Gifford. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post Big Ten Football Predictions: Will Four Teams Reach the College Football Playoff Again? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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