ACC Showdown: Which Dark Horse Could Topple Miami and Clemson This Season?

The 2025 FBS season is nearly here, and with it comes the bewildering beast we know as the Atlantic Coast Conference—a sprawling 17-team juggernaut that’s about as straightforward to predict as a cat on a hot tin roof. We’ve got Clemson and Miami eyeing the College Football Playoff like hawks, but the real intrigue lies in the fat middle tier—SMU, Louisville, Georgia Tech, and a crowd of scrappy contenders jostling for a shot at glory in Charlotte. The question looming large: amid the chaos and turnover, will anyone outside the usual suspects rise to the occasion or will the powerhouses cement their reign? That’s where the Opta supercomputer steps in, crunching the numbers with its TRACR model to offer a fresh, data-driven lens on what to expect. Buckle up—this ACC is a rollercoaster you don’t want to miss. LEARN MORE.

The 2025 FBS season is arriving. We’ve got a preseason field guide for the massive Atlantic Coast Conference with notes, observations, advanced data points and season predictions.

It’s a big glut of teams.

The 17-team Atlantic Coast Conference shapes up as one of college football’s hardest leagues to predict in 2025.

Clemson and Miami will be serious College Football Playoff contenders, and another group of teams – SMU, Louisville, Georgia Tech – has a chance to contend in the ACC. The league has a big, fat middle class after that, from which any of seven or eight teams could emerge to threaten for a spot in Charlotte.

Only a few of the 17 programs can be safely written off before the year starts. If you enjoy variance, you’ll like this version of the ACC. 

That’s my take, though the Opta supercomputer might have a different outlook.

It calculates its projections with the help of TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster), which combines play data from the prior season with adjustments for recruiting class rankings, transfer portal additions, and other offseason roster turnover.

The Opta supercomputer also accounts for each team’s strength of schedule (both last year and this year) and then reaches a projected record for 2025. It’s important to note that because of differences in strength of schedule, a team can be No. 1 in the TRACR rankings but not projected to finish with the best record in the league.

Here’s a preseason field guide to the ACC with notes, observations, advanced data points and season predictions. Teams are listed in the order of their TRACR ranking in the league.

1. Miami

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 1st

One scary thing: The Hurricanes look strong this year. They were strong last year. But they lost two close games in which Mario Cristobal blew a game-management decision or two, helping tip the outcome the other way. Cristobal has a deserved reputation as a mangler of tight-game situations, and a schedule with Notre Dame, Florida, FSU, Louisville and SMU will present some tight-game situations. 

One exciting thing: The defense should stop holding the program back so much this year. If healthy, edge rusher Reuben Bain could be an All-American. Second-year tackle Justin Scott is an elite talent. And cornerback O.J. Frederique allowed a tiny 37.8% burn rate on 37 targets to earn freshman All-American honors. 

Player to watch: Receiver CJ Daniels, a transfer from LSU. Miami loses tons at wideout, led by All-American Xavier Restrepo. Daniels leads a big group of replacements for new QB Carson Beck.

ACC Projected Records

2. Clemson

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 2nd

One scary thing: If I asked you, “Which ACC team gave up the highest explosive play rate against the run last year?” you would probably not guess Clemson. But if you didn’t, you’d be wrong. (It was 9.5%.) Explosive runs aren’t entirely the fault of any one position group, but they’re a shocking problem at Clemson, which always has some of the best defensive tackles in the country. 

One exciting thing: The continued development of T.J. Parker, who might be the best edge rusher in college football entering the season. Parker came on strong in the back half of last season and finished the year with a 23.4% pressure rate (sixth in the ACC among edge rushers with at least 75 pass rushes) and 13 adjusted sacks (third in the league). I expect more this season.

Player to watch: For a former five-star recruit who has a good case as the No. 1 QB in the country this year, it doesn’t feel like people talk a lot about Cade Klubnik. But he’s a Heisman candidate this year. 

3. Louisville

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 4th

One scary thing: Uh, the nagging feeling that something is going to go wrong. 

One exciting thing: The offense has no big holes. In addition to having a huge star at running back – more on him shortly – the Cardinals have an experienced line, a mix of productive receivers, and a non-elite but serviceable QB in Miller Moss. They also have a legendary play-caller in Jeff Brohm. The defense played at roughly a top-40 level without huge deficiencies and brings back most of its best players. Also, in-state rival Kentucky is in the toilet. This seems like a tremendous time for Louisville. 

Player to watch: Running back Isaac Brown was a complete sensation as a freshman, running for a 7.1-yard average and 1,173 yards overall. Any team in the sport would kill to have him. Louisville does. He’s the reason the Cards’ explosive run rate (11.5%) was second-best in FBS. 

4. SMU

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 1st

One scary thing: Even in a run to the playoff, SMU had an average run game last year. Its 39.5% rushing success rate was almost smack dab in the middle of the ACC, as was its 7.0% explosive play rate on runs. Now Brashard Smith, the featured back of that attack, is in the NFL. 

One exciting thing: QB Kevin Jennings was horrendous in a playoff loss at Penn State, but I wouldn’t judge him on his worst day. He posted a very nice 80.4% well-thrown rate and 2.48% pickable pass rate, while doing well to avoid sacks even when pressured. (I’d like to see SMU run him a bit less, as his 4.4-yard average on 63 designed carries probably wasn’t worth all the contact he took.) 

Player to watch: Safety Isaiah Nwokobia is one of the best in the sport, a throwback ballhawk who involves himself around (and behind) the line of scrimmage. He wears No. 23, an honor at SMU. 

(O-SUCC%=Offensive Success Rate, O-EXP%=Offensive Explosive Rate, D-SUCC%=Success Rate Allowed, D-EXP%=Explosive Rate Allowed)

5. Georgia Tech

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 6th

One scary thing: There are many, many, many questions about the Georgia Tech defense. A big one: How healthy and effective will middle linebacker Kyle Efford be? The Jackets missed him badly when he was out of the lineup in stretches at the end of last season. He’s a solid run stopper (12 stuffs) who really bothered Cam Ward in Tech’s upset of Miami. 

One exciting thing: QB Haynes King and RB Jamal Haynes are not just the best duo of Hayneses in the country but among the top handful of QB/RB tandems anywhere. If both of them stay healthy, Tech’s offensive line would almost have to try to be bad enough to make the offense unproductive. 

Player to watch: Here’s a good story in the annals of “the transfer portal is just a big food chain.” WR Eric Rivers led Conference USA with 1,172 yards and 12 touchdowns for FIU. He’s now at Tech, where he’ll be the main guy replacing star WR Eric Singleton, who transferred to Auburn. 

6. Duke

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 11th

One scary thing: The running game was utterly terrible last year. I have no idea how the Blue Devils won nine games with a rushing success rate of 28.5%, which was dead last in all of FBS. The volume-handling running back from that team, Star Thomas, then transferred to Tennessee. 

One exciting thing: It’s rare for Duke football to have so much elite talent. Cornerback Chandler Rivers is an All-American. Edge rusher Wesley Williams had 7.5 sacks last year, only trailing Clemson’s Parker among ACC returnees. Brian Parker, the right tackle, was first-team all-conference and has two years of eligibility remaining. These players should give Manny Diaz’s team a high floor. 

Player to watch: QB Darian Mensah, the transfer from Tulane. Mensah was consistent right out of the box for the Green Wave and should be an upgrade on Maalik Murphy. 

7. Virginia Tech

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 5th 

One scary thing: Star running back Bhayshul Tuten, one of the only good things about Virginia Tech over the past few seasons, is gone. 

One exciting thing: A new quality running back, Terion Stewart, is here. Stewart averaged 5.5 yards per carry for Bowling Green and could lift the Hokies just like Tuten did after arriving from North Carolina A&T in 2023. 

Player to watch: Isaiah Spencer, a wide receiver from Jackson State who averaged 18.9 yards per catch for the Tigers. He’s part of a fun group of wideout transfers that also includes Wake Forest’s Donovan Greene and Tennessee’s Cameron Seldon, a former top recruit out of Virginia who went to Tennessee as a running back and is now changing positions. 

8. Boston College

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 7th

One scary thing: BC will probably feel the loss of an up-and-down but overall quality quarterback, Thomas Castellanos, to Florida State. Bill O’Brien benched Castellanos amid injury issues, and the offense went into the tank after Castellanos responded by leaving the team. Alabama transfer Dylan Lonergan might be good, but BC is going from a proven, solid QB to an unproven one. 

One exciting thing: O’Brien wants to pound the rock. BC called run plays 48.7% of the time last year, one of the highest marks in the league. The loss of RBs Treshaun Ward and Kyle Robichaux will sting a bit, but O’Brien hopes to pave the way for their replacements with a strong offensive line. 

Player to watch: Guard Logan Taylor, an all-conference honorable mention, who Opta data grades out well in run blocking more than pass protection. His 4.4% run disruption rate allowed was fifth in the league among guards with at least 200 pass protection snaps, while his 6.7 pressure rate allowed was below the league average.

9. Florida State

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 14th

One scary thing: Everything is scary coming off a 2-10 season. Perhaps the most horrifying question of all: What if one of the worst offensive lines in the country doesn’t get that much better? 

One exciting thing: The line should get a lot better. Center Luke Petitbon, a transfer from Wake Forest, is one of the most important players in the country this year. As I wrote this spring: “Petitbon was an honorable mention All-ACC player for the Demon Deacons last year and probably deserved more than that. His 2.8% pressure rate allowed was the best among ACC centers who played at least 300 snaps, and his 4.0% run disruption rate allowed was just a whisker off the top spot.” FSU is in desperate need of a stabilizing presence here, and if Petitbon is that guy, the offense has a path back from the abyss. 

Player to watch: QB Tommy Castellanos has written a check with his mouth. Let’s see how his play responds when Mike Norvell’s squad faces Alabama in Week 1. And keep an eye out for the Castellanos-Duce Robinson connection.

10. Cal

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 13th

One scary thing: There probably isn’t just one. The roster fell apart during the offseason, with the offense clearing out almost entirely after Bryan Harsin took over as offensive coordinator in the spring. Every public indicator in the world points toward Justin Wilcox being fired after this season.

One exciting thing: At least the schedule isn’t that bad? In a 17-team ACC, there’s now a lot of luck involved in a team’s schedule, and the Bears did well this year. There’s no Clemson, no Miami, no Georgia Tech, and no Florida State, in case the Seminoles are any good. For this reason alone, Cal could scratch out a six-win season if a few things click into place. 

Player to watch: Mike Linebacker Cade Uluave had 71 tackles last year. Cal doesn’t return anyone else who recorded more than 45. He’s a rare source of continuity on a roster that can use it. 

11. North Carolina

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 9th

One scary thing: Aside from the general possibility that Bill Belichick is not a culture fit for college football and this entire tenure goes down in flames? The last few years of UNC teams have leaned heavily on Omarion Hampton, who I think will quickly become one of the NFL’s best backs this year. 

One exciting thing: UNC’s defense was putrid in the last few years under Mack Brown and a succession of coordinators (Gene Chizik and then Geoff Collins). Now all are gone, and Steve Belichick is here to run a defense that does have some interesting players, led by cornerback Thaddeus Dixon. 

Player to watch: Edge Pryce Yates had a sack and three tackles for loss against UNC in the Fenway Bowl in December. Belichick was watching and brought Yates to Chapel Hill in the portal.  

12. Pitt

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 10th 

One scary thing: Pitt started last year 7-0 and finished 0-6, during which just about everything fell apart. Pitt did not make enormous personnel changes on either side of the ball or the coaching staff, so the natural question lingers: Which version of Pitt was the real one? 

One exciting thing: The Panthers have one of the best linebacker groups in the country, not just the ACC. Rasheem Biles and Kyle Louis could be the foundation of a great defense, and unlike in 2024, they did not lose anyone in the transfer portal who looked indispensable. 

Player to watch: All-purpose star Desmond Reid, a big-play threat who made an immediate splash last year after coming to Pitt along with his offensive coordinator, Kade Bell, from FCS Western Carolina. 

13. Syracuse

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 8th

One scary thing: Syracuse won 10 games last year. It will be hard to win more than five this year. More or less, the entire offense left for either the NFL or the transfer portal, and the schedule does not shake out favorably, with games against Notre Dame, Tennessee, Clemson, SMU, Georgia, Tech and Miami. (Most of those are on the road.) Fran Brown is building something nice, but the record won’t show it. 

One exciting thing: The growth of Notre Dame transfer QB Steve Angeli, who will try to succeed Kyle McCord in establishing Syracuse as an “add water, instant success” destination for transfer QBs. 

Player to watch: David Reese, a solid linebacker from Cal who was one of the many, many Bears to abandon Wilcox’s team in the transfer portal. 

14. NC State

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 12th 

One scary thing: NC State has been a solid developmental program under Dave Doeren and, most of the time, played good defense. That wasn’t true last year. The Wolfpack gave up the ACC’s highest explosive play rate (9.7%) and didn’t have a defensive player drafted for the third time in four years. If you were looking for signs that a tenure was getting stale, those would be a few of them. 

One exciting thing: After a doomed experiment with an unhealthy Grayson McCall, NC State appeared to find its quarterback of the future about a month into last season. C.J. Bailey flashed a slightly above average well-thrown (81.1%; ACC average: 78.3%) and pickable pass rates (3.8%; ACC average: 3.9%). Bailey, now a sophomore, has breakout potential, and the word out of Raleigh is that he’s bulked up to handle the physical rigors that come with being a dual-threat QB. 

Player to watch: Running back Hollywood Smothers is awesome. The sophomore averaged 6.4 yards per carry last year and generated a missed or broken tackle on one out of four carries, tied with Virginia Tech’s Bhayshul Tuten for the highest mark in the ACC. He’s also a good receiver. 

15. Virginia

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 15th

One scary thing: UVA has won three, three and five games in Tony Elliott’s tenure, and it doesn’t feel like anything drastic has changed for this season. Oft-criticized offensive coordinator Des Kitchings and defensive coordinator John Rudzinski have been with Elliott the whole time. The Hoos haven’t been fun or done anything all that compelling. It’s hard not to worry about atrophy. Also, No. 1 wideout Malachi Fields went to Notre Dame.

One exciting thing: The team does at least have a clear-cut No. 1 quarterback this year. Sixth-year TCU transfer Chandler Morris is the guy. He has not been a star, but he’s a capable starter, and the offense no longer has to lurch between Anthony Colandrea and Tony Muskett sharing the job. 

Player to watch: Of the 54 new ones on UVA’s roster, I’m interested to watch Devin Neal, the free safety who previously played for Baylor and Louisville. He was a third-team All-ACC safety in 2023 before taking a redshirt early last year. UVA’s defense had problems with explosive plays, and Neal should help. 

16. Stanford

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 17th

One scary thing: Stanford was the worst team in the conference last year and fired Troy Taylor in March, leaving Frank Reich as the interim boss. This is likely to be another awful season. 

One exciting thing: For 2025, there’s almost nothing. Such is life when you fire your head coach in spring. But the long-term braintrust of Andrew Luck as general manager and former Nike CEO John Donahoe as athletic director is interesting. Stanford is at the forefront of programs operating in a professionalized, NFL-style manner. Maybe we’ll see some early signs of whether it’s working. 

Player to watch: Cornerback Collin Wright had three interceptions last year and allowed a 50.0% burn rate (ACC average: 52.7%) on 52 targets to lead the team’s primary defensive backs. 

17. Wake Forest

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 16th

One scary thing: New coach Jake Dickert is taking over a tough job after Dave Clawson, the best coach in the program’s modern history, stepped away. Wake has repeatedly lost its best players to the transfer portal and may find itself giving lots of QB snaps to Robby Ashford, formerly of Auburn and South Carolina. This will be the definition of a rebuilding year. 

One exciting thing: Dickert is a good program builder, cut from a similar cloth as Clawson. Some of his early transfers are interesting, including a big group of players joining him from Washington State, where he was previously the head coach. Wake won’t be good this year, but it shouldn’t be an ugly mess. 

Player to watch: Running back Demond Claiborne had a 1,000-yard season for a 4-8 Deacs team last year and stuck around through Clawson’s retirement and Dickert’s hire. 

Data modeling provided by Opta Analyst’s Greg Gifford. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.

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