Underdogs Rising: Which Unexpected Contender Could Topple Ohio and Seize the 2025 MAC Championship?

Every new college football season brings its own blend of surprises and shakeups, and the Mid-American Conference (MAC) is no exception as we approach 2025. Ohio, fresh off its first conference title since 1968, seems poised to defend despite a coaching change. But is the reigning champ really safe, or will the persistent contenders like Toledo, Miami, and Buffalo burst through with championship aspirations of their own? The MAC landscape is anything but predictable—with a murky middle and a struggling bottom tier featuring Ball State, UMass, Akron, and Kent State. The past five years tell a tale of parity with different winners every season. Toss in the machine precision of the Opta supercomputer’s TRACR rankings—factoring in roster flux, recruiting classes, and schedule strength—and suddenly, the anticipated pecking order might not be as clear-cut as traditional wisdom suggests. So, who really holds the cards heading into 2025 MACtion? Dive in as we break down the teams through advanced metrics, insider notes, and crystal-ball projections. LEARN MORE

As we preview 2025 FBS football, we have a guide to the Mid-American Conference, featuring notes and metrics on all the teams, as well as their TRACR rankings and win projections.  

The MAC enters 2025 with clear tiers. 

Ohio finally won the conference title last year for the first time since 1968 and looks strong again, despite losing its head coach. Toledo is always a contender in this league, and both Miami and Buffalo appear to have championship-worthy rosters. 

Almost everyone else is in a mushy middle, and then there’s a foundational bottom tier: Ball State, new entrant UMass, Akron, and, with another step or two down, Kent State. Aside from those four, it wouldn’t be a shock to see anyone in this league make a title run. 

After all, different teams have won MAC titles in each of the past five years. 

The Opta supercomputer might have a slightly different outlook. It calculates its projections with the help of TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster), which combines play data from the prior season with adjustments for recruiting class rankings, transfer portal additions, and other offseason roster turnover.

The Opta supercomputer also accounts for each team’s strength of schedule (both last year and this year) and then reaches a projected record for 2025. It’s important to note that because of differences in strength of schedule, a team can be No. 1 in the TRACR rankings but not projected to finish with the best record in the league.

Here’s a preseason field guide to the conference with notes, observations, advanced data points and predictions. Teams are listed in the order of their league TRACR ranking.

1. Miami (Ohio)

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 3rd (5th OFF, 2nd DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 1st (5th OFF, 2nd DEF)

One scary thing: The continued transfer portal-raiding of the roster, now an annual tradition in Oxford. This year, cornerback Raion Strader (Auburn) and receiver Javon Tracy (Minnesota) are among the crucial losses to power conference programs. 

One exciting thing: The addition of transfer quarterback Dequan Finn, who led Miami to the MAC championship in 2023 before flopping at Baylor last season. It’s nice for the RedHawks to have a high-floor QB in their first year without longtime starter Brett Gabbert. 

Player to watch: Defensive tackle Nasir Washington, who had 14 run stuffs last year to lead Miami’s returners. He’s an especially important player without Brian Ugwu. The edge rusher was the best player on the team last year, wrapping the season with 29 run stuffs and 11 adjusted sacks. 

2. Toledo

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 5th (8th OFF, 3rd DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 2nd (2nd OFF, 3rd DEF)

One scary thing: Among MAC schools, Toledo was second to last in rushing success rate (34.2%) in 2024. That’s unacceptably bad for a team with Toledo’s money and talent. A much more experienced line should help former Ohio State running back Chip Trayanum, but we have to see it on the field. 

One exciting thing: A really good receiving group for head coach Jason Candle and quarterback Tucker Gleason, led by returner Junior Vandeross and featuring former NIU receiver Trayvon Rudolph, who struggled coming off an injury last year but has more than 2,000 receiving yards scattered across four seasons in the MAC. 

Player to watch: Nickelback Braden Awls, who broke up six passes and had four picks while allowing a 47.8% burn rate, which ranked 16th in the league among those with at least 30 defensive targets.

MAC Projected Records

3. Ohio

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 1st (1st OFF, 4th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 3rd (4th OFF, 4th DEF)

One scary thing: General turnover after coach Tim Albin left for Charlotte, to be replaced by offensive coordinator Brian Smith. The loss of receiver Coleman Owen, No. 2 in the MAC in receiving yards, hurts, too.

One exciting thing: The return of sophomore tight end Mason Williams, who only saw 25 targets last year but posted a MAC-best 75.0% burn rate (among TEs with 10 targets) and earned some freshman All-America consideration. 

Player to watch: It’s quarterback Parker Navarro, who is a solid passer and one of five FBS QBs to clear 1,000 rushing yards in 2024. Navarro is the most important player in the conference in 2025 and the key to the Bobcats’ shot at repeating after beating Miami 38-3 in the MAC championship game. He averaged 7.6 yards per run play despite Ohio facing a heavy box on 54.1% of their plays – the highest rate in the MAC. 

(O-SUCC%=Offensive Success Rate, O-EXP%=Offensive Explosive Rate, D-SUCC%=Success Rate Allowed, D-EXP%=Explosive Rate Allowed)

4. Northern Illinois

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 4th (9th OFF, 1st DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 4th (11th OFF, 1st DEF)

One scary thing: Experienced the most turnover of any team in FBS. The team that beat Notre Dame (and seven others) is pretty much all gone, from the quarterback to the top two rushers to the top four receivers to the top eight tacklers. 

One exciting thing: A manageable nonconference slate, featuring FCS Holy Cross, Maryland and Mississippi State. The Huskies could lose all of those games, the FCS one included, but if they’re decent, they could pick off a win against a bottom-feeder from either the Big Ten or SEC. 

Player to watch: Quarterback Josh Hoist, who saw limited action (just 111 attempts) last year and is now responsible for preventing NIU from being terrible. Former Dartmouth QB Jackson Proctor has joined the team’s QB unit.

5. Bowling Green

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 2nd (3rd OFF, 5th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 5th (7th OFF, 5th DEF)

One scary thing: The departure of third-round NFL pick Harold Fannin Jr., who was not just the most prolific receiving tight end in college football last year, but one of the most productive ever.

One exciting thing: Everything around Eddie George, the brilliant NFL running back who takes over as head coach after four years at Tennessee State. Coach Scot Loeffler’s departure to become the Philadelphia Eagles’ QB coach might have a rejuvenating effect on the Falcons. Edge rusher Collins Acheampong from UCLA could provide a boost defensively. 

Player to watch: Center Alex Padgett, who appears as the first-team center on most preseason all-conference outlooks. BGSU has lots of turnover around the roster but continuity on the line, with Padgett serving as the anchor. 

6. Buffalo

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 6th (7th OFF, 7th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 6th (6th OFF, 7th DEF)

One scary thing: If running back Al-Jay Henderson isn’t cooking, it’s not clear where this offense is going to find playmaking. Maybe nowhere!

One exciting thing: A great linebacker corps, led by Red Murdock and his 119 returning tackles – the most of any player coming back to a MAC team. Murdock isn’t a prolific pass rusher (five pressures on 30 rushing snaps last year), but he tackles everything in sight once the play gets moving. 

Player to watch: Henderson, who looks like the best in the MAC. He’s versatile, too, as Henderson posted 17 burns as a receiver coming out of the backfield. 

7. Akron

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 8th (12th OFF, 6th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 7th (10th OFF, 6th DEF)

One scary thing: The program, usually a loser, still seems like a mess. Akron is the first team in more than a decade to face a bowl ban because of its low Academic Progress Report scores. Most of the good players who aren’t out of eligibility have transferred, including nickel corner Darrian Lewis (team-high seven passes defensed). He went to West Virginia at the end of the spring transfer portal window. 

One exciting thing: Maybe that neighbor Kent State is worse? Right now, that’s about it. 

Player to watch: Ben Finley, the former NC State and Cal quarterback, had his best college season last year. Continued growth in his sixth year would be helpful. 

8. UMass 

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 7th (4th OFF, 10th DEF)*
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 8th (1st OFF, 10th DEF)

One scary thing: Well, take your pick. I’ll just say “the defense,” which was horrible in 2024 and lost almost everyone. Some reason for optimism: Defensive end Joshua Nobles arrives from Jackson State, where he had 12 sacks and nine QB hurries. 

One exciting thing: A year of new things. UMass is back in its old conference. It hired a new head coach, Joe Harasymiak, who brings an encouraging and regionally appropriate resume to a difficult gig. The program and its fans are investing more in the sport. There will be an adjustment period here, but I agree with The Athletic that there’s some reason for hope. 

Player to watch: Whoever plays quarterback, be it Utah transfer Brandon Rose or Yale transfer Grant Jordan, or even returnee AJ Hairston. UMass has rarely had decent QB play in FBS, not that it’s easy to be any good at quarterback when everything around you is falling apart at all times. 

*UMass was an FBS independent in 2024. These rankings are indexed to the MAC. 

9. Central Michigan

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 10th (11th OFF, 8th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 9th (9th OFF, 8th DEF)

One scary thing: Don’t love this quarterback situation at all. The two guys likely to see all of the action, Joe Labas and Jadyn Glasser, combined for nine touchdowns and 13 interceptions. 

One exciting thing: The hire of Army OC Matt Drinkall as head coach is inspired. That doesn’t mean it’ll work, but programs like CMU have to be different to succeed. Drinkall, who ran a bulldozing Army offense last year after getting it somewhat back to its former flexbone option ways, qualifies as different.

Player to watch: How about four? It’s the collection of FCS and Division II offensive line transfers on whom Drinkall will rely to build a decent running game from scratch. With no returning rusher who had more than 136 yards last year, the linemen hold the fate of the Chips’ rushing attack in their hands. 

10. Eastern Michigan

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 11th (10th OFF, 9th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 10th (8th OFF, 9th DEF)

One scary thing: One of the worst defenses in FBS last year adds nothing that seems likely to immediately change things. 

One exciting thing: Running back Dontae McMillan was a two-time All-Big Sky player at Weber State, a quality FCS program, before redshirting in Ypsilanti last season after an early injury. One could easily imagine McMillan, if he’s healthy, becoming a top-three running back in this conference. 

Player to watch: Receiver Terry Lockett, the former Michigan State man who made third-team All-MAC last year with 660 yards and four scores. He ranked 15th in the conference among those with at least 30 targets with a 60.2% burn rate. 

11. Western Michigan

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 9th (2nd OFF, 11th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 11th (3rd OFF, 11th DEF)

One scary thing: Three-year starting QB Hayden Wolff didn’t set the world on fire but gave the Broncos a good floor at the position. Will whoever replaces him this year – there are three primary candidates – provide the same? The options are a junior college transfer Brady Jones, and some career backups. 

One exciting thing: Tight end Blake Bosma, who should succeed Bowling Green’s Harold Fannin Jr. (now in the NFL as an early third-round pick) as the league’s best at the position. WMU hasn’t had a game-breaking offensive star in a long time, arguably not since receiver Corey Davis in the mid-2010s. 

Player to watch: Tate Hallock, a box safety who earned second-team All-MAC honors with 84 tackles and four interceptions. His six passes defensed were fourth in the league among safeties. 

12. Ball State

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 12th (6th OFF, 13th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 12th (12th OFF, 12th DEF)

One scary thing: The loss of the MAC’s freshman of the year, QB Kadin Semonza, to Tulane stunk. 

One exciting thing: Coach Mike Uremovich comes from Butler in the non-scholarship FCS Pioneer Football League. In other words, he is used to making due with very few resources. That skill will come in handy in this job.

Player to watch: Running back Qua Ashley, who was an excellent special teamer (two kick return touchdowns last year) at Kennesaw State, slides into a featured role in the Cardinals offense. 

13. Kent State

• 2024 final TRACR rank: 13th (13th OFF, 12th DEF)
• 2025 preseason TRACR rank: 13th (13th OFF, 13th DEF)

One scary thing: I can’t pick just one. This was the worst team in modern FBS history. 

One exciting thing: Nothing is exciting about an 0-12 team that fires its coach in the middle of the offseason and takes an interim coach into the next year. 

Player to watch: Receiver Dashawn Martin was one of the MAC’s better return men last year, and everybody knows the kick returner at Kent State got a lot of reps. He only had eight catches for 108 yards, but surely the Golden Flashes will do more to put the ball in his hands on offense this year. Right? 

Data modeling provided by Opta Analyst’s Greg Gifford. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.

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