Back Severino On The Road: What Unexpected Challenge Awaits Next?

September baseball arrives like that familiar old friend who shows up just in time to remind you how wild this game can get—even when the playoff picture seems as settled as last year’s dust. Tonight’s Athletics versus Cardinals matchup? Well, it’s less about who’s punching a ticket to October and more about seeing which team is better at playing spoiler—and maybe a little poker with their pitching staffs. The A’s have been quietly building something promising despite the setbacks—yes, one brutal month buried their chances—and Severino’s stark home-road split adds another layer to this chess match. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are clinging to the hope of crossing .500, battling through a schedule stacked with contenders and relying on Mikolas to hold the fort at home. So, who takes the crown in this late-season skirmish where strategy meets survival? Let’s dig into the nitty-gritty before the first pitch flies tonight. LEARN MORE

Athletics vs. Cardinals, 7:45 ET

We are entering September, and now we have the final stretch run for baseball. If the season ended today, we’d have very little surprises from the All-Star Break. The Wild Card expansion has been an interesting addition to the league because we have more teams in the playoffs, but it does take a bit of the drama away. For example, the Yankees and Red Sox are both probably going to make the playoffs, but if MLB never expanded, they would be fighting down the stretch for a spot. While neither of these teams in today’s game are officially eliminated, it is highly unlikely that the Athletics or Cardinals make the playoffs. 

The Athletics have put together a very nice building block season. By the time the team actually makes it to Las Vegas they should have a reasonable roster and one that could be young and upcoming. They still will need pitching, but this is a team that has actually had a really good season despite the fact that they are currently 11 games under .500. There was a clear point in the season where they were terrible, and if that stretch never happened, this team would probably be fighting for a Wild Card spot. Basically, one bad month ended up costing them their entire year. In fairness, it was a terrible month. Luis Severino takes the mound tonight with a 6-11 record, a 4.82 ERA, and a 1.34 WHIP. He has been substantially better on the road than he has been at home. His road ERA is exactly half of what his home ERA is. He has made 11 road starts, and allowed a total of 23 earned runs. However, he allowed 12 of those runs in two games against the Tigers and the Yankees. Cardinals hitters haven’t done all that well against Severino in limited experience, hitting just .214 over 14 at-bats. 

The Cardinals have one hope for this season – to be able to get over the .500 mark. They are highly unlikely to make the playoffs at this point. Right now, ESPN gives St. Louis just a .04% chance to make the playoffs. They are currently three games under .500, and they could struggle the rest of the way.  They were five games over .500 at the All-Star Break. The rest of the way, they face mostly playoff teams or at least contenders. The Reds and Giants are nine of the remaining games on the schedule (plus today and tomorrow against the Athletics) for teams that are not currently in the playoffs if they started today. Their hopes for a win today rest on the arm of Miles Mikolas. For the season, Mikolas is 6-10 with a 5.04 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. Overall, he has thrown better at home, but he isn’t fully reliable there either. He doesn’t go too deep into the games typically. He has gotten through six innings just five times since June, or once every three starts. Overall, the Athletics have had just two hits in 13 at-bats against Mikolas.

I lean toward the over in this game, but I’m not sure that it is a sharp play here. Both pitchers are in their ideal situation, with Severino on the road and Mikolas at home. I think the correct play here is to take the Athletics to win the game. Over the past five games, the Cardinals have been slightly better, but I like Severino better than Mikolas here. Outside of two games, he has been great on the road. It might be safer, though to play the first five to give yourself a chance at the push. That’s where I will play it – Athletics through five on the moneyline.  

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