MLB Power Rankings: Unexpected Teams Shaking Up the Standings Early This Season

Strap in, baseball fans — the 2025 MLB season is already throwing curveballs that nobody saw coming. The Detroit Tigers, tied atop the American League standings? The Atlanta Braves sinking to the bottom of their division? And let’s not forget the San Francisco Giants staggering out to a surprising 15-8 start. Here’s the real question: how do these early twists reshape the power dynamics around the league? Thanks to our trusty supercomputer and the cutting-edge TRACR model, we’re crunching all the numbers — from win-loss records to strength of schedule and those tricky environmental factors — to bring you monthly power rankings that cut through the noise. Forget the usual hot takes; this is raw, data-driven insight, updated constantly as the season unfolds. Ready to see who’s really got the juice and who’s just breaking a sweat? Dive in and find out. LEARN MORE.

With the help of our supercomputer, we’re revealing our MLB power rankings based on our TRACR-powered season-long projections every month throughout the 2025 season.

Though it’s still early in the 2025 MLB season, there have been plenty of surprises to date.

How about the Detroit Tigers being tied for the best record in the American League heading into Tuesday’s action? Or the Atlanta Braves being tied for last in the National League East? Who had the San Francisco Giants at 15-8 on April 22?

To help us sort out where clubs sit in our power rankings, our projection model is providing us data-backed predictions for the 2025 season. So our rankings aren’t Joe Expert’s opinion; they’re based on actual data through a model that incorporates each team’s TRACR, win-loss record, strength of schedule and more.

TRACR normalizes performance from league environmental factors that can either inflate or deflate numbers. It uses advanced metrics and other factors on both sides of the ball to calculate how many runs per nine innings better or worse teams are compared to the league-average club during the season (lower is better for defense).

Keep in mind our TRACR rankings will shift constantly throughout the month. You can always find up-to-date ratings and projections on our season-long predictions page and our raw value leaders on our advanced leaderboard.

Opta Analyst’s MLB Power Rankings

1. Chicago Cubs (TRACR: 2.05)

• 2025 Projected Record: 99-63 (entering Tuesday)
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 14th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 1/Pitching & Defense No. 9
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 95.0%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 28.4%

Trending: The Cubs have blown a lead in 11 games this season, second in MLB (Royals, 12) and have seven losses in those games – tied for the most in the majors.

2. San Diego Padres (1.47)

• 2025 Projected Record: 99-63
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 5th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 11/Pitching & Defense No. 1
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 94.5%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 24.6%

Trending: The Padres lead the majors in overall team raw value (RV) at 131.6. The league average is 100.

3. New York Yankees (1.36)

• 2025 Projected Record: 96-66
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 2nd
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 2/Pitching & Defense No. 16
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 98.7%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 30.3%

Trending: Among those with at least 40 plate appearances, Aaron Judge leads the AL with a total RV of 11.7.

4. Milwaukee Brewers (1.17)

• 2025 Projected Record: 90-72
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 12th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 5/Pitching & Defense No. 12
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 54.8%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 7.0%

Trending: Reliever Jared Koenig ranks sixth in the majors with a 17.1 RV- among those with at least 10 innings pitched.

5. Cincinnati Reds (1.15)

• 2025 Projected Record: 89-73
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 17th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 4/Pitching & Defense No. 13
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 49.7%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 5.1%

Trending: Among starting pitchers, Hunter Greene is No. 1 in baseball with a 149.8 whiff+ (league average is 100).

6. San Francisco Giants (1.10)

• 2025 Projected Record: 94-68
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 18th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 6/Pitching & Defense No. 7
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 79.1%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 10.2%

Trending: Landen Roupp sits fifth in MLB with a 119.8 command+ among those with at least 20 innings pitched.

7. Detroit Tigers (1.09)

• 2025 Projected Record: 97-65
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 15th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 10/Pitching & Defense No. 3
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 99.1%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 31.6%

Trending: Reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal ranks fifth in the majors in total RV among pitchers at -6.3.

8. Arizona Diamondbacks (0.99)

• 2025 Projected Record: 90-72
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 8th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 3/Pitching & Defense No. 18
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 53.7%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 5.2%

Trending: The Diamondbacks overcame a 1-0 first-inning deficit against the Cubs on Sunday for their eighth comeback win this season. That ranks second in MLB behind the Dodgers (nine).

9. New York Mets (0.98)

• 2025 Projected Record: 95-67
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 3rd
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 16/Pitching & Defense No. 12
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 91.7%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 14.4%

Trending: Slugger Pete Alonso is third in baseball with a 254.6 BIP+ among those with at least 40 plate appearances.

10. Los Angeles Dodgers (0.58)

• 2025 Projected Record: 90-72
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 1st
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 11/Pitching & Defense No. 11
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 54.4%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 4.2%

Trending: Los Angeles blanked Texas twice over the weekend and has three shutouts in its last nine games – only three teams have more than three shutouts this season. The Dodgers’ bullpen has a 1.99 ERA over their last six games after posting a 6.49 mark over the previous nine.

11. Seattle Mariners (0.56)

• 2025 Record: 88-74
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 11th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 9/Pitching & Defense No. 14
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 84.4%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 13.1%

Trending: The Mariners won two of three in Toronto, giving them four straight series wins and a 9-3 record over its last 12 games after a 3-7 start to the year. Their 9-3 record since April 7 is the second best in MLB (Cleveland, 10-3).

12. Houston Astros (0.39)

• 2025 Projected Record: 88-74
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 6th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 21/Pitching & Defense No. 4
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 83.0%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 10.1%

Trending: Right-hander Hunter Brown, who is 3-1 with a 1.16 ERA in five starts, sits third in the AL with a total RV of -6.1.

13. Tampa Bay Rays (0.25)

• 2025 Projected Record: 82-80
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 21st
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 20/Pitching & Defense No. 8
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 45.6%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 4.3%

Trending: Tampa Bay has been blanked three times in its last five games, including twice in the four-game set against the Yankees. Only the Pirates (four) have been shut out more often. The
Rays are 8-0 this season when scoring at least five runs compared to 1-13 when they don’t.

14. Philadelphia Phillies (0.13)

• 2025 Projected Record: 83-79
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 10th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 7/Pitching & Defense No. 20
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 15.1%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 0.5%

Trending: Is it more about stuff than command? Despite his early struggles, Aaron Nola leads the majors with a 131.8 command+.

15. Atlanta Braves (0.10)

• 2025 Projected Record: 81-81
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 4th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 19/Pitching & Defense No. 15
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 10.4%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 0.6%

Trending: Atlanta starters have posted the fifth-worst RV- as a group at 120.9. Only the Brewers, White Sox, Orioles and Rockies have been worse.

16.Toronto Blue Jays (0.03)

• 2025 Projected Record: 83-79
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 22nd
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 23/Pitching & Defense No. 10
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 57.5%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 4.5%

Trending: Reliever Yimi Garcia is one of only seven pitchers who still have a 0.00 ERA in at least 10 innings pitched.

17. St. Louis Cardinals (-0.16)

• 2025 Projected Record: 75-87
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 20th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 12/Pitching & Defense No. 23
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 1.1%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: <0.1%

Trending: Though the Cardinals have the 11th-worst total RV (97.1) in MLB, they own the seventh-best mark in starting pitching RV at 91.4 (the lower, the better for pitching).

18. Cleveland Guardians (-0.21)

• 2025 Projected Record: 82-80
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 12th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 17/Pitching & Defense No. 19
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 46.8%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 2.6%

Trending: The Guardians have the fourth-worst team RV (77.9), ahead of only the Brewers (58.9), White Sox (53.1) and Rockies (50.1). For the league, 100 is average.

19. Texas Rangers (-0.49)

• 2025 Projected Record: 82-80
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 23rd
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 12/Pitching & Defense No. 6
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 45.6%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 2.2%

Trending: Sunday’s 1-0 loss to the Dodgers marked the Rangers’ first one-run loss this season; their 6-1 record in those games leads MLB. The Rangers are 13-3 this season when conceding four or fewer runs compared to 0-6 when allowing at least five.

20. Baltimore Orioles (-0.56)

• 2025 Projected Record: 73-89
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 9th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 6/Pitching & Defense No. 28
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 5.4%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 0.2%

Trending: Cedric Mullins owns a 1.055 OPS this year. Only two center fielders in Orioles history have started a season with a higher OPS through the first 20 games of a season: Brady Anderson (1996, 1997) and Adam Jones (2009, 2015).

21. Minnesota Twins (-0.65)

• 2025 Projected Record: 73-89
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 19th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 22/Pitching & Defense No. 21
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 5.8%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 0.1%

Trending: Minnesota was swept in its three-game series at Atlanta, totaling nine runs and 18 hits over the three contests. The Twins rank 27th in the majors in batting average (.211), on-base percentage (.282) and OPS (.621), and 25th in runs per game with 3.41.

22. Kansas City Royals (-0.67)

• 2025 Projected Record: 76-86
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 7th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 29/Pitching & Defense No. 5
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 13.8%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 0.7%

Trending: Kansas City snapped a six-game skid with a 4-3 win in Detroit on Sunday and returns home after a 2-8 road trip. The Royals hit .196 over those 10 games and are batting .210 overall this season, third worst in MLB ahead of the White Sox (.196) and Pirates (.206).

23. Boston Red Sox (-0.85)

• 2025 Projected Record: 72-90
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 16th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 14/Pitching & Defense No. 12
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 3.9%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 0.1%

Trending: The Red Sox won three of four against the White Sox, hitting at least one home run in each contest. Boston is 12-3 in 2025 when hitting at least one home run (tied for best record in MLB with the Mets), compared to 1-8 when it does not.

24. Los Angeles Angels (-0.92)

• 2025 Projected Record: 74-88
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 27th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 22/Pitching & Defense No. 24
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 6.0%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 0.2%

Trending: The Angels have won their first two home series of the season, something they have not done since 2019. The last time Los Angeles won its first three home series of a campaign was in 2006.

25. Athletics (-0.94)

• 2025 Projected Record: 72-90
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 26th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 18/Pitching & Defense No. 25
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 4.2%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: 0.1%

Trending: The Athletics have allowed 10+ runs four times this season, most in the AL and tied for second in MLB – only the Marlins (five) have more. The A’s have a 5.89 ERA at home this
season, second highest in MLB (Orioles, 6.39).

26. Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.01)

• 2025 Projected Record: 67-95
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 24th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 28/Pitching & Defense No. 17
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 0.1%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: <0.1%

Trending: Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a combined 1.57 ERA in the second inning this season. The only MLB team lower in that inning is the Mets (1.17).

27. Miami Marlins (-1.22)

• 2025 Projected Record: 67-95
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 28th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 15/Pitching & Defense No. 29
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 0.2%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: <0.1%

Trending: Ace Sandy Alcantara owns a 7.27 ERA in four starts despite limiting opponents to a .219 batting average. It hasn’t helped that he’s walked four batters in two of those outings.

28. Washington Nationals (-1.42)

• 2025 Projected Record: 66-96
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 25th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 25/Pitching & Defense No. 26
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: <0.1%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: <0.1%

Trending: In each of the last six games, Washington’s starting pitcher has had at least five strikeouts while allowing no more than two runs. That is tied for the longest such streak in
Expos/Nationals history, done three times previously.

29. Chicago White Sox (-2.06)

• 2025 Projected Record: 58-104
• 2025 Preseason Rank: 30th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 30/Pitching & Defense No. 24
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: <0.1%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: <0.1%

Trending: Chicago picked up its first road win of the year on Sunday but still dropped three of four in Boston, its 27th road series loss in 29 tries since the start of last season (two wins). The only other team with fewer than six road series victories in that time is Colorado with three.

30. Colorado Rockies (-2.42)

• 2025 Record: 50-112
• 2025 Preseason: 29th
• 2025 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 26/Pitching & Defense No. 30
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: <0.1%
• 2025 Probability of Winning the Pennant: <0.1%

Trending: Colorado’s 3-1 win over Washington on Sunday evening snapped its eight-game losing streak, its longest since June 2023. The Rockies were 3-17 prior to that win, tied for third
worst in NL history through 20 games and the worst since the 2022 Reds also started 3-17.

Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. For much more coverage, follow our social accounts on X, Threads, Bluesky and Facebook.

The post MLB Power Rankings: Which Teams Have Made an Early Rise to the Top? appeared first on Opta Analyst.