Is Saquon Barkley Changing the NFL’s Free Agency Game? Teams Face a High-Stakes Running Back Dilemma!

After the stunning breakout of free agent running backs in 2024, the NFL landscape feels like it’s on the brink of a major shift. Teams might be tempted to throw big bucks at running backs this offseason — but is chasing last year’s magic the smartest move? Sure, Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry dazzled in new digs, but relying on lightning to strike twice? That’s a gamble. With the 2025 free agent pool offering fewer stars and a deep rookie class brimming with potential, the question isn’t just about who to sign — it’s about how smart teams really want to play this chess match. So, are franchises ready to splash cash or wise enough to bet on the fresh legs? Let’s dig into the numbers and the strategy behind the rush. LEARN MORE.

After the success of the free agent running backs in 2024, NFL teams might rethink how they approach the position. But should they?

This past season was the year of the free agent running back.

Four of the top-10 rushing leaders in 2024 signed with new teams during the offseason, including the top two rushers in Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry.

There isn’t nearly as much acclaim among the 2025 class of running backs poised to hit the open market, but teams looking for a better running game may take a closer at free agency following the success of Barkley, Henry and even Josh Jacobs. 

The 2025 crop features a couple of repeat free agents from 2024 (Aaron Jones, Alexander Mattison, J.K. Dobbins and Kareem Hunt) as well as some former first- and second-round picks in Najee Harris, Nick Chubb and Javonte Williams. None offer the same star power as the aforementioned trio, but none will cost as much, either.

But while Barkley and Henry saw success on new teams, chasing that type of production could be a fool’s errand this offseason.

Jones is the best production-wise but recently turned 30 and is coming off an injury-prone season. Harris is young but already has more than 1,200 touches to his name and isn’t a three-down back anymore. Lower-body injuries have riddled Chubb over the past two years, and he has more than 1,400 career touches. Williams has shown promise at times but has yet to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards or five rushing touchdowns in a season.

If anything, 2024 proved that Barkley and Henry are more outliers than the norm.

None of the free agent running backs from this offseason come close to the efficiency of Barkley and Henry.

The 2025 RB Draft Class is Deep

The other factor teams need to consider is the 2025 rookie running back class. Simply put, it’s deep. But more than that, though, a lot of young running backs have excelled early in their NFL careers recently when put in the right situation.

Since 2016, 14 rookie running backs eclipsed 1,000 yards in their debut seasons. Another 14 rushed for between 800-999 yards. And on a long-term investment level, five 1,000-yard rushers in 2024 were within their first three seasons, while two other players within their first three season rushed for more than 900 yards. So even if a team doesn’t get star production in Year 1, the likelihood of solid production over the next two years is high.

Looking back at the past five running back draft classes, the 12 best rookies averaged 5.78 yards per carry, 3.46 yards before contact and 2.36 yards after contact during their respective final collegiate season. Of the draft-eligible running backs in 2025, 15 clear that threshold and 27 clear two of the three numbers listed.

Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty is the clear star of the group, but he’s the only one with true first-round pedigree. The others who could crack the first or second round are Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson, Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson and North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton. That means there are, at worst, 10 other running backs sprinkled throughout the rest of the draft teams who could potentially find early success.

And there is a pattern to support this.

Some of the best rookie running backs over the past five years – with staying power, at least – were drafted outside the first round. There have been only three first-rounders since 2019, and two came in 2022 (Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs). Others like Isiah Pacheco, Bucky Irving and Tyrone Tracy were drafted in the fourth round or later and were quality starters in 2024.

Optimal Running Back Strategy

If you’re a team in desperate need of a running back, would you rather pay up for a non-premium running back or take a gamble on a rookie?

Well, that depends on where you are as a team. 

The Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens – and even the Green Bay Packers – could afford to splurge at running back because of the way the team was constructed and their championship aspirations. Barkley, Henry and Jacobs were also clearly the best players in the pool and near the top of their position anyway. 

No player like that exists in this year’s free agent class unless a team thinks it can galvanize Harris, Williams or Dobbins, or believes Jones will find the fountain of youth. 

The best strategy for any team uncertain about either the free agency or rookie class is to do what the Detroit Lions did in 2022. They signed David Montgomery in free agency – a devalued starting-caliber player at a low price – and then drafted a complementary runner in Gibbs who played the position differently. The Lions have ranked no worse than 11th on the ground since then, including fifth in rushing EVE (efficiency versus expected) in 2024.

If a team wants to upgrade their backfield, that is the best strategy. 

The funny thing is, there are two Montgomery-esque running backs in this group: Harris and Williams. If you look at the first four years of each player’s career, their numbers are eerily similar.

Another element to consider here is pass protection. Montgomery was a well-known pass-blocking running back who finished 11th in pass-blocking ELO this season. And, oddly enough, two of the aforementioned free agent running backs finished ahead of him among qualified players (minimum 100 snaps): Williams (who ranked first) and Hunt (who ranked seventh). The other running backs rank anywhere from 17th (Mattison) to 46th (Harris).

Don’t Chase 2024

So to answer the question; No, teams shouldn’t be paying top dollar for a running back this offseason. There simply are not any top-level free agents to warrant significant money, especially when there are so many quality running backs in the draft this year.

Teams still shouldn’t pay for running backs in free agency unless stars like Barkley, Henry or Jacobs fall through the cracks. However, there is a possibility that another good free agent group will emerge in 2026. 

Not only will Henry’s current deal with the Ravens be up, but a bunch of non-first-round running backs from the 2022 NFL Draft could be looking for payday as well. Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, James Cook, Rachaad White and Brian Robinson Jr. are all poised to be free agents if they don’t ink new deals beforehand. Only Cook was a three-down back for his respective team, but most of these players also have young backups waiting in the wings.

With the success of the 2024 free agency class, it would be easy to assume that one of the aforementioned players can be a plug-and-play stud on any team. But that just isn’t how the NFL works. Teams still need the other key elements of a good offense like a quarterback and offensive line for running backs to succeed. 

But 2025 offers an intriguing opportunity for RBs because of how offensive weapons will be difficult to come by this offseason. There is likely only one superstar receiver in free agency (Tee Higgins) and a shallow wide receiver draft class. There are some good offensive linemen in free agency as well that could fortify teams looking to spend frugally on running back.

Running games mattered in 2024, and the prospect of building from the ground up could be worth more than pinching pennies for some teams who want to ascend quickly in 2025.

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