Astros Edge Blue Jays in Opener: A Thrilling Start Sets the Stage for an Epic Series

Ever get that feeling where the baseball season’s dragging, your bets aren’t hitting like they used to, but then football kicks off and suddenly things aren’t so bleak? Yeah, that’s me right now. I can’t say I’m head over heels for this baseball campaign—it’s been rougher than a fastball at 95 mph. Yet, here we are with the Astros and Blue Jays squaring off at 7:07 ET, and maybe, just maybe, this is where the tide turns. Both teams are holding tight to slim leads, hanging onto playoff hopes with white-knuckled grips, and the pitching match-up? Well, it’s got “interesting” written all over it. Luis Garcia’s barely stretched out this year, while Jose Berrios has been the steady hand for Toronto. But with the Jays stumbling a bit lately and the Astros itching to keep their division crown, who’s got the real edge? I’m betting it’s the Astros, but hey, in baseball, the only certainty is uncertainty. Ready to dive deeper? LEARN MORE.

Astros vs. Blue Jays, 7:07 ET

I can’t say that I love this baseball season, but football has started well, so that is making me happy at the moment. As baseball winds down, and the attention shifts over to the start of football, I will have fewer plays on the diamond. That might be a good thing considering this has been the worst baseball season I’ve had for Outkick. It isn’t like it is a true disaster, we’ve won the majority of our plus money looks and most of our multi-unit plays, but I never had that major streak like I’ve had in past years. There is still time and it could start here as the Astros take on the Blue Jays.

The Astros are maintaining their hold on the first place of the division, but there is nothing even close to a comfortable lead here. The Astros are up two games on the Mariners, and just 3.5 on the Rangers. They need to find a way to keep winning as they are in control of their own destiny. While this is a major series for them, they do have six games remaining against the Rangers and Mainers, and both of those series are at home. With a total of six series remaining in the season for Houston, they have exactly three against potential playoff teams and three against teams that will miss the postseason. Today, they send out Luis Garcia to the hill. For the year, Garcia is just 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA and a 0.50 WHIP. If those numbers seem strange to you, it is because he has pitched exactly one game this season. The Astros right-hander went six innings and allowed just three hits and three earned runs against the Angels last week. He did allow two homers in that game. Overall, Blue Jays hitters have gone 20-for-80 against Garcia with George Springer having the best success and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. struggling quite a bit. 

The Blue Jays are in a very similar situation to the Astros. They are currently in first place, but the once comfortable lead they enjoyed is nowhere near comfortable at the moment. They have a two-game lead over the Yankees, and a three-game lead over the Red Sox. If the season ended today, all of these teams mentioned, with the exception of the Rangers, would make the playoffs. Toronto can’t just coast to the finish line, they need to keep their foot on the gas. Luckily for them, they only have the Astros and Red Sox remaining on their schedule for playoff teams. They just dropped two out of three to the Yankees, so a winning series is important for them here. Today, they send out Jose Berrios according to ESPN – some reports also have Shane Bieber. Ensure when you play this it is based on Berrios taking the mound. Berrios is 9-5 for the season with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. Berrios has held the Astros to just 25 hits in 109 at-bats. 

The first time these two teams squared off this season, the Astros swept the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays have been great at home this season, but I’m not 100% sure that I want to back Berrios here. Garcia has only one start under his belt and just seven since 2023. I feel like the over is the right look here, but I’m going to take the Astros to win this game. I don’t like the way that the Blue Jays are playing, and I don’t want to back Berrios. Garcia could backfire on me here, but I like him better and will take the Astros to win.

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