Uncover the Shocking Truth Hidden Within This Unforgettable Story

Week 1 of the NFL season has already gifted us a flood of overreactions — fans and pundits alike have shouted their hot takes from the rooftops. But here’s a curveball: What if we’re actually underreacting to some of the most crucial storylines? While everyone’s busy obsessing over surprise wins and unexpected flops, there are subtle shifts and overlooked details that might just shape the entire 2025 season. From shaky defenses on powerhouse teams like the Ravens and Bills, to the emerging dominance of the Packers, and even the undeniable rise of Justin Herbert — the game’s nuances demand a closer look. So, let’s cut through the noise and focus on the underhyped narratives that could turn the tide as we head into Week 2. LEARN MORE.

Yes, by now there have been plenty of overreactions to the opening week of the NFL season, but what is everyone underreacting about? We have answers.

One week into the new NFL season, and we’ve got a slew of new information to digest and use to speculate on the rest of the season. 

Now, it’s easy to overreact to the first week. Teams you thought were good weren’t. And some teams were better than you expected. Let’s face it, just about everyone has expressed their “Week 1 overreactions” by now.

However, there are elements of the early season that are probably being overlooked.

So we’re taking a look at some aspects of the opening week that fans and media are underreacting to – and should be paying more attention to heading into Week 2.

The Ravens and Bills Are Great, but Their Defenses Aren’t

The Sunday Night Football showdown between the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens delivered as the game of the week and, possibly, the season. It featured two former NFL MVPs in Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, as well as 81 combined points.

The greatness overshadowed a troubling pattern for these Super Bowl contenders, though, and the game also featured some of the worst defensive performances of the week.

If you’re looking for a reason why neither the Ravens nor the Bills have made the Super Bowl in the Jackson and Allen eras, it’s their defenses. And Week 1 proved it’s still an issue for both sides against superior competition.

Here’s where they fall in our EVE (efficiency versus expected) rankings after Week 1.

The Ravens, typically considered one of the top defenses in the NFL, languished under the pressure of the Bills late in the game after giving up 15 points and the win. At week’s end, they were 26th in offensive success rate allowed (46.2%), 24th in run success rate allowed (40.0%) and 25th in pass success rate allowed (49.1%).

Baltimore also failed to put pressure on Allen and had a 34.0% pressure rate that ranked 11th-worst in the NFL in Week 1.

The Ravens defense only looked this bad five times in 2024 – all of which were shootouts, including the AFC divisional round loss to the Bills. Baltimore went 2-3 in those games. Simply put, the Ravens have a great defense that hasn’t played well in big moments against good offenses.

The Bills were slightly better defensively. Buffalo finished 17th in offensive success rate allowed (40.0%), 20th in run success rate allowed (39.3%) and 15th in pass success rate allowed (40.9%). However, they couldn’t stop the Ravens from scoring, and four of Baltimore’s five touchdowns came from outside the red zone.

That’s another problem, though, and one the Bills will need to correct while they continue to face stiff competition.

Buffalo’s defense wasn’t great in 2024, either, with the 29th-ranked success rate and the 32nd-ranked pass success rate allowed. So while Week 1 was a slight improvement, we’re having a different conversation if the Bills don’t make that valiant comeback.

The Packers Are a Clear Threat in the NFC

Defense still matters. The past three Super Bowl matchups featured one team that had a defense ranked in the top 10 in success rate allowed, and seven of the top-10 teams in offensive success rate allowed made the playoffs.

When the Packers traded for Micah Parsons ahead of Week 1, it led many to believe that Green Bay could be a true contender in 2025. And their one-sided victory over the defending NFC North champion Detroit Lions proved they were for real.

The Packers head into Week 2 in the top 10 in offensive success rate allowed, pressure rate, sack rate, lowest average depth of target allowed and rushing yards allowed before contact.

These are elite numbers on the whole, but the individual metrics for the team’s defensive front are also phenomenal. Six players with at least 15 pass-rush snaps in Week 1 finished with at least a 16.0% pressure rate; the three edge rushers (Parsons, Rashan Gary and Lukas Van Ness) all had at least a 5.0% adjusted sack rate.

Those pressure rates rank inside the top 50 and the adjusted sack rates rank in the top 35 among all defensive linemen with at least 15 pass rush snaps

With a quality offense led by Jordan Love, the Packers are going to be a tough out in the NFC.

Highest Probability of Winning the NFC Title

Special Teams Performance is More Important Than Ever

Week 1 marked the debut of the new kickoff rules, with touchbacks starting at the 35-yard line instead of the 30-yard line. This, unsurprisingly, led to a spike in kickoff returns.

This past weekend featured a 128.4% increase in returns from Week 1 of the 2024 season and the most return yards in a week since 2010 (3,233 yards).

This also contributed to two other points: the third-lowest margin of victory in a Week 1 since 1970 (7.56 points) and the most one-score games (12) in a Week 1 since 2013.

Just look at the Tennessee Titans, who lost by eight points to the Denver Broncos despite converting 13 fewer first downs and tallying 184 fewer yards. The Titans kept the game within four points until a late touchdown from the Broncos, thanks to their special teams play.

Tennessee led the league in field position and kickoff return yards in Week 1. The Titans’ average starting field position was their own 41-yard line and they averaged 36.0 yards per return. And while his team ranked 32nd in yards per drive (9.5) and third-down conversion rate (14.3% ), Tennessee kicker Joey Slye sank all four of his field goals, including a 50-yarder.

The Titans weren’t the only team to benefit from kickoff returns and field goal kickers. Nine teams that finished in the top 10 in either category in Week 1 won their matchup. Four of the six teams to make at least three field goals in Week 1 also won.

Special teams is often brushed aside for the more flashy offensive or defensive plays, but the field position battle will decide games in 2025, led by the kickers and return specialists.

Justin Herbert is Hitting His Prime

Justin Herbert’s career has been muddled thus far by injuries, inconsistent play, and bad coaching. That seems to be changing in the second season of the Jim Harbaugh era.

The Chargers looked sublime in a Week 1 victory over the defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs, and Herbert was the kingpin. The sixth-year quarterback racked up 318 passing yards and three passing touchdowns while also rushing for 32 yards.

He also finished sixth in completion percentage, fourth in well-thrown rate, and second in catchable ball rate among Week 1 quarterbacks with at least 25 passing attempts.

And Herbert was poised under pressure. 

Despite seeing the seventh-highest blitz rate and the 10th-highest pressure rate by the Chiefs, Herbert completed 64.3% of his passes. That ranked fifth among the 10 quarterbacks who attempted at least 10 passes under pressure, but it was the highest mark of Herbert’s career. 

His well-thrown rate and catchable rate were also career highs and ranked in the top three of those 10 quarterbacks.

We already knew Herbert was a great quarterback. What Week 1 showed us is that he can make the leap to elite in 2025 and perhaps join the ranks of top-tier quarterbacks — like the one he beat this past Friday night.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Could Win the Triple Crown

It’s only Week 1, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba was dominant for the Seattle Seahawks. He finished with nine receptions on 13 targets for 134 scoreless yards. The kicker: JSN only ran 20 routes in the loss to the San Francisco 49ers.

We highlighted Smith-Njigba as a dark horse triple crown candidate in July, but his usage proved he can take the crown from Ja’Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals if he can score some touchdowns this season. 

Smith-Njigba’s ridiculous 65.0% target share ranked No. 1 among all receivers who ran at least 20 routes in Week 1. Los Angeles Rams star Puka Nacua’s 50.0% was the next closest. And while JSN didn’t flash in burn rate overall, his 8.6 burn yards per route run ranked second behind Zay Flowers of the Ravens.

The Seahawks didn’t look good in Week 1. They scored just 13 points in a loss and finished 27th in passing success rate, but quarterback Sam Darnold wasn’t awful. He tied for ninth in completion rate, finished third in open-target rate and ninth in air yards per attempt.

So, as long as Darnold continues to feed Smith-Njigba, the young pass catcher will be a contender for the triple crown. At the very least, Smith-Njigba is making a name for himself as one of the better playmakers in the NFL this season.

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The post Forget Overreactions, Here’s What We’re Underreacting to Heading into the NFL’s Week 2 appeared first on Opta Analyst.