Unlocking Victory: Insider Secrets to Dominating Circa Million VII Survivor NFL Week 2 Contests

Ever had a near-perfect Week 1 in an NFL handicapping contest only to watch heartbreak sneak in during the final seconds? That’s exactly how my Circa Million VII kick-off went—Seattle, with the ball dangerously close at San Francisco’s nine-yard line and just 45 seconds to go, couldn’t push through, sealing a painful 17-13 loss. Then Baltimore’s stunning collapse against the Bills, losing 41-40, felt like a gut punch no bettor wanted. But hey, a modest 3-2 week isn’t the end of the world, right? Especially when the average player stumbled mightily, with ten of the eleven most favored picks taking an unexpected tumble. So now, here we go again—with fresh eyes, a slightly bruised ego, and a lineup that could stir the pot in this week’s contest. Buckle up, because the gridiron storylines aren’t just about scores; they’re about gambles, gut feelings, and sometimes, just plain crazy market moves. Ready to dive in? Let’s break down the plays you’ll want to circle. LEARN MORE.

Two tough beats cost me a 5-0 in Week 1 of the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest. The Seattle Seahawks had the ball at San Francisco’s nine-yard line with 45 seconds left in their 17-13 loss as +2.5 underdogs to the 49ers last week. Then there is the Baltimore Ravens, who epically collapsed in a 41-40 loss at the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football. 

Pack your bags, football fans! OutKick is sending one lucky winner and a friend to Athens for Georgia vs. Alabama. Travel’s on us, VIP tickets in hand, and bragging rights for life. Enter Now!

However, I’m not complaining about my 3-2 week because the Tennessee Titans covered by a half-point, and the average entry went 2-3 last week, one of the worst weeks in Circa Million history. Ten of the 11 most picked teams in the contest last week lost, including the top six. Hopefully, the square sides bounce back this week, because a couple of my picks could be popular. 

Listed by order of confidence. First is the most confident, and fifth is the least.

Overreact much? Denver was -3.5 on the preseason look-ahead line. But, because Indy smacked the soft-a** Miami Dolphins 33-8 and the Broncos got hooked as -8.5 favorites in a victory over the Titans, this game is lined as a pick ‘em. Outrageous. The Colts can’t bully Denver like they did Miami last week. The Broncos are elite in the trenches. 

Furthermore, Miami’s secondary is abysmal, and Denver’s secondary is one of the best in the league, featuring the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year, CB Patrick Surtain II. Indianapolis QB Daniel Jones won’t carve up the Broncos like he did the Dolphins last week, and Denver’s defense squashed Tennessee’s offense last week (more on that below). 

Honestly, that’s all I have for this handicap. Sometimes you have to be at peace with losing bets, and if Jones is good with the Colts, Broncos QB Bo Nix has a sophomore slump, and Denver’s Sean Payton gets out-coached by Indy head coach Shane Steichen, then I’ll hold my L and move it along. 

People act like Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan is “quarterback proof” when he isn’t. Shanahan is bound by the same universal principles of every NFL head coach: When your quarterback sucks or gets hurt, your team sucks. It’s that simple, and 49ers QB Brock Purdy will miss a few games with turf toe. They are also without WR Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittle. 

NOLA, being the lowest-power-rated team in the NFL, is another mistake by the market. The Saints aren’t that bad. In fact, they have a better roster than San Francisco entering Week 2, and I’d rather have New Orleans QB Spencer Rattler than Niners backup QB Mac Jones. Especially considering NOLA’s playmakers: WRs Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed and RB Alvin Kamara. 

Now, you could’ve bet “Saints +7” when this line was released Sunday night, and then +4.5 Tuesday. New Orleans moved to +3 once Shanahan announced Purdy would be out. But, the Circa listing NOLA at +3 will keep people from betting it, and even entice people to pick San Francisco under the premise of a “market overcorrection”. 

Finally, the Saints didn’t cover the +6.5 Circa contest line in last week’s 20-13 loss to the Cardinals, but New Orleans gave Arizona all it could handle. The Saints had more yards per play (4.6-4.5), sacks (5-1), and red-zone trips (4-3), and this Cardinals team is more than 3.5 points better than the banged-up 49ers. 

I’m fading the Bills for a second straight week. What could go wrong? Oh, and I’m doing so with the Jets, one of the most cursed NFL franchises. Well, I’m throwing caution to the wind because even though the NYJ lost to Pittsburgh 34-32 last week, the Jets beat the Steelers on the “noise-canceled” score, per Pro Football Focus, and covered as +3 ‘dogs. 

In doing so, Jets QB Justin Fields was legit nasty in Week 1 against a talented Pittsburgh defense. According to RBSDM.com, Fields is third in EPA plus completion percentage over expectation as of Friday. Meaning, Fields threw guys open and made scoring plays vs. the Steelers. 

Maybe Pittsburgh’s defense just got out to a slow start, but NYJ’s offense passed the eye test Sunday. New head coach Aaron Glenn leaned into Fields’ mobility, and Jets RB Breece Hall and WR Garrett Wilson balled. Allen had 107 rushing yards on 19 carries, and Wilson caught seven balls for 95 yards and one touchdown.

Lastly, Fields is a “poor man’s version” of Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson, who ran six times for 70 yards and a TD vs. Buffalo in Week 1. The Jets had 39 team carries for 182 yards against the Steelers Sunday. Based on what we saw in Ravens-Bills Sunday, I’m confident the Jets can use their ground game to keep Josh Allen off the field this week. 

LAR has a strong edge at quarterback and coaching, a better defense, and this is a profitable “spot” for Rams head coach Sean McVay. They are 12-3 straight up (SU) and 11-4 against the spread (ATS) on the East Coast at 1 p.m. ET, which is considered a “bad spot” for West Coast teams, since hiring McVay in 2017. They are 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS as road favorites in those games, too. 

Also, Tennessee covering as +8.5 road underdogs in a 20-12 loss in Denver last week is misleading. According to Sūmer Sports, the Titans had a 23.6% success rate against the Broncos, aka Tennessee didn’t do sh*t. Granted, Denver’s defense is better, but the Rams’ defense balled in the playoffs last season and looked good Sunday. 

LAR only scoring 14 points vs. the Houston Texans is misleading as well. Houston has a top-five defense in the NFL, and Pro Football Focus gave Rams QB Matt Stafford the highest grade at his position in Week 1. Stafford was sharp last week despite injury concerns entering the season and not playing in the preseason. 

Moreover, he had to incorporate Rams first-year WR Davante Adams into the offense, which probably isn’t that hard, and WR Puka Nacua missed 37% of the snaps after nearly getting his head taken off by the Texans. That said, Stafford should be able to score 20+ points, and the Titans won’t score 14 with rookie QB Cam Ward still trying to get his feet under him. 

My survivor partner, David Troy, and I aren’t playing “survive and advance,” we’re playing “win and conquer”. Just kidding, kind of. But we have to save several teams for Thanksgiving-Black Friday and Christmas, which are two separate weeks. More importantly, this is the best place to use Arizona because Carolina has the worst defense in the NFL. 

Our Week 1 survivor pick, the Jacksonville Jaguars, ran for 200 yards in a 26-10 win over the Panthers Sunday, and the Cardinals have a deadlier rushing attack. Arizona ran for 206 yards in a 36-30 loss to Carolina last year. I’m overlooking the Cardinals’ playing with their food last week against the Saints because QB Kyler Murray showed up on the injury report with an illness. 

Plus, I like the idea of using Arizona now while it and Murray are still healthy and not having to worry about using them later this year. Lastly, the Cardinals will be up for this game because this is their home opener, and the Panthers pretty much eliminated Arizona from playoff contention last season. 

_____________________________

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.