From Championship Dreams to Crushing Defeat: What Really Sank the Packers’ Season?

Ever catch yourself thinking a game’s gonna be a breeze, only to end up bitten by the unexpected? That’s exactly what happened in Cleveland last Sunday noon. The Green Bay Packers, fresh off two solid wins and perched atop Super Bowl predictions, strolled into a game that looked like an easy September stroll. Except—hold on—that Browns defense wasn’t just standing around for the show. Nope, they turned what felt like a yawner into a trap, sacking Jordan Love five times and snagging an interception—all while shutting down Green Bay’s offense just enough to pull off a 13-10 shocker. So what does this upset tell us? Maybe it’s a reminder that in the NFL, “any given Sunday” isn’t just a catchy phrase—it’s a warning that no matter how confident you feel, there’s always a curveball lurking. Curious how the Browns did their magic defensively and threw a wrench into the Packers’ perfect September plans? LEARN MORE.

A sleepy noon game in Cleveland ended up being more of a trap for the Packers than another easy win in September. But the Browns are no joke defensively.

Look closely enough, and there were signs that something like this could happen.

The Green Bay Packers opened with the third-highest win probability of any team playing Sunday, according to the Opta supercomputer, and tied for the biggest favorite (7.5 points), per the betting line.

But there’s one thing about the NFL that remains constant. As soon as you think you have everything figured out, a day like Sunday of Week 3 happens. It’s the reason why “any given Sunday’ has become such a well-known phrase over the years.

The Packers looked unbeatable after taking down two 2024 playoff teams – the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders – by scores that indicated the games were closer than they actually were.

Green Bay was so impressive through two games that it entered Week 3 with the NFL’s highest probability of winning the Super Bowl – even higher than the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles.

However, a sleepy noon game in Cleveland against the winless Browns ended up being more of a trap than another easy win in September.

Yes, Cleveland remains inept offensively, but there had been signs that the team was capable of the performance it put together defensively Sunday when it sacked Jordan Love five times and picked him off once in a stunning 13-10 victory.

It was Love’s first interception in 10 starts and the Browns also ended the Packers’ franchise-record streak of 20 or more points in 12 straight road games in the regular season.

Cleveland had done a good job against a couple of other key playmakers in their first two games. The team limited Cincinnati Bengals star wideout Ja’Marr Chase to two catches for 26 yards in a 17-16 loss in Week 1 and held Derrick Henry to 23 yards on 11 carries in a 41-17 loss to the Baltimore Ravens that was 20-10 until things slipped away in the fourth quarter.

It was Henry’s fewest rushing yards in a game since Dec. 17, 2023, when he had 9 yards on 16 attempts in the Tennessee Titans’ overtime loss to the Texans.

The Browns entered Week 3 fifth in the NFL in defensive EVE (efficiency versus expected), which measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to league average based on situation and opponent.

Team EVE Through Week 2

They were also second in the NFL in success rate allowed and third in run success rate allowed entering Week 3. The key has been the Browns’ ability to get into the backfield, as they allowed an NFL-best 0.8 yards before contact and the ninth-best run disruption rate heading in.

How about against the pass? Love found out it’s equally tough.

Cleveland, which played Cover 1 46.5% of the time and Cover 2 25.6% of the time through two weeks, had the fifth-best pass success rate and fourth-best pressure rate entering the matchup with Green Bay.

Superstar edge Myles Garrett was second in the league with 4.0 adjusted sacks (how often defenders actually get to the QB) heading in and he had a half sack against the Packers, giving him 4.0 total sacks so far in 2025.

The Browns, who played with heavy personnel 41.2% of the time and gave a 4-3 look 35.3% in their first two games, limited workhorse running back Josh Jacobs to just 30 yards on 16 attempts (1.9 per carry). This was the only time in Jacobs’ seven-year career that he finished with 30 yards or fewer when rushing at least 16 times.

They also held Green Bay’s talented receiving corps to a combined eight catches for 98 yards and no scores between Matthew Golden, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks.

Cleveland isn’t much of a threat offensively, ranking second-to-last in offensive EVE heading into Week 3, but the team is capable of forcing any opponent (a visit to Detroit looms in Week 4) into a grind.

And they just might pull out a couple of surprises along the way.

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The post Seeing Brown: How the Packers Went From Super Bowl Favorite to Being Handed a Reality Check appeared first on Opta Analyst.