
Mountain West Bowl Projections: Can the Rebels Defend Their Throne or Will a Dark Horse Emerge in Week 4?
The 2025 college football season is officially underway, and with the preseason chatter now behind us, it’s time to dive headfirst into the exhilarating world of bowl game projections. After weeks of anticipation and early speculation, the picture is starting to clear — teams are proving their mettle, strengths are becoming apparent, and the road to postseason glory is shaping up to be as thrilling as ever. Our team here at Mountain West Connection is geared up to deliver weekly updates on who’s carving out their spot in the bowl lineup, with this week’s outlook already hinting at some compelling stories to follow. So, buckle up, check out our latest projections, and don’t hesitate to jump in with your own insights in the comments — the season’s just heating up!

The time has come. The 2025 season is upon us. We are past the time of watch lists and preseason awards and have entered the time of bowl projections. Our team at Mountain West Connection will be releasing our bowl projections each week. This week’s round of projections can be seen below and will likely change as the season progresses. Read our projections below and leave your own in the comments.
New Mexico Bowl: Fresno State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Boise State
College Football Playoff: N/A
I flipped the Aggies and Bulldogs, but that’s the only change for me this week. It looks like the teams able to make a bowl game are emerging after four weeks. All have their flaws, but have more strangths or less questions than the other teams. UNLV is on shaky ground at the top but keep finding ways to win. The same goes for the Aggies, Bulldogs, and Broncos, to this point anyway. Hawaii needs a get-right game, but should be okay by the end of the year.
New Mexico Bowl: New Mexico
Arizona Bowl: Fresno State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Boise State
College Football Playoff: N/A
Nothing changes from last week. I’m not sold on UNLV winning the conference, but they deserve the top spot until they drop a game. Hawaii is hanging on to a bowl spot, but will likely fall out with a loss to Air Force this week. The race to the conference championship continues to be wide open.
Hawaii Bowl: San Jose State
New Mexico Bowl: New Mexico
Arizona Bowl: Fresno State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Boise State
College Football Playoff: N/A
Just a few conference games so far, but Boise, Fresno, and Utah State have jumped out to a quick lead. New Mexico is intriguing and SJSU looks like they may have found their rhythm.
New Mexico Bowl: New Mexico
Arizona Bowl: Fresno State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Utah State
College Football Playoff: N/A
Nevada and Wyoming are the only teams where I see zero chance of them making a bowl game. I would eliminate Colorado State as well, but Jackson Brousseau looks promising. It seems my skepticism about Fresno State was unwarranted, as they look to have fully rebounded from their season-opening loss to Kansas. Utah State likewise appears to have a deadly offense on their hands, which should continue to assist them through conference play after they travel to play Vanderbilt.
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