Fantasy Football Week 4 Shocker: Start These Stars and Bench These Sleepers Against Popular Rankings!

Week 4 in the 2025 NFL fantasy football season is shaping up to be a wild ride — and if you think expert consensus rankings have all the answers, well, think again. Sometimes the data throws us a curveball that even the sharpest analysts can’t quite decode. How much trust do you put in your gut versus what cold, hard numbers suggest? While the Ryder Cup takes center stage in golf and college football heats up on Saturday, Sunday belongs to your fantasy lineups needing those clutch performances. Ready to rethink your start ’em, sit ’em list with insights that might just flip the script? Let’s dive into the players our model thinks will surprise you — whether they’re about to light up your scoreboard or sputter under the spotlight. LEARN MORE

In our 2025 NFL Week 4 fantasy football start and sit, we let the data give another perspective that likely varies from the overall expert picks.

It’s the best weekend of the year.

Because it’s not just a football weekend. The Ryder Cup is here! It’s a majestic weekend. By the time you read this, the golf will be well underway, with college football on Saturday. And yet another beautiful Sunday for your fantasy teams to notch a victory.

Nothing more is needed. Let’s jump right in.

The Week 4 Fantasy Football Yays: Players Projected to Overperform Consensus Rankings

Note: We’re comparing our rankings to the expert consensus rankings (ECR) from Fantasy Pros. These rankings update throughout the week (we pulled these numbers from Thursday). Once again, we are using PPR unless noted otherwise.

Trevor Lawrence, QB (JAX) vs SF (ECR: 25, Our Rank: QB14, Projected Points, 14.98)

Yikes. Sometimes, the model picks up on things that we humans can’t quite comprehend. The San Francisco 49ers have been quite stout on defense so far this season, ranking fifth in the NFL through three weeks in passing yards allowed per game.

Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence is second in the NFL with four interceptions and is coming off a zero-touchdown, one-interception performance that saw him finish the week as the QB28. Oh, and a quick sidebar: Here is the list of Jags with more receptions through three weeks than Brian Thomas Jr: Brenton Strange, Dyami Brown, Travis Hunter and Parker Washington. To be clear, that is two wide receivers, a tight end and a cornerback!

The 49ers, without Nick Bosa, have historically struggled to get pressure, and quarterbacks with decent mobility usually gash them for one or two big runs a game. Lawrence is one of seven quarterbacks our model is projecting to score somewhere between 14 and 15 points, so we’re not as high on him as maybe our numbers indicate, but he should squeak out enough production to finish the week as a QB2.

Jaylen Warren, RB (PIT) vs MIN (ECR: 16, Our Rank: RB7, Projected Points: 17.14)

Let’s get the bugaboo out of the way early. Jaylen Warren is definitely not the seventh-best running back in the NFL. He might barely be average. There are 23 players with at least 40 rushes this season. Warren ranks 21st among them in yards per carry at 3.07 and is tied for last with only one rush of 10+ yards.

But now to the positives. Aaron Rodgers loves Warren. Which means Warren is getting a ton of volume. He had 18 touches in Week 2. He had 23 last week. Over the last two weeks, the rest of the running backs on the Pittsburgh Steelers roster have combined for 14. You don’t need to be crazy efficient if you’re getting force-fed the ball like Warren is.

On the other side of the ball, outside of last week’s demolition of the Joe Burrow-less Cincinnati Bengals, the Minnesota Vikings allowed a combined 337 rushing yards in weeks 1 and 2. He is fourth among running backs in projected receptions and with 17 rushing attempts on top of his receiving work, the model thinks the volume is enough to make him a top-10 play this week.

Ladd McConkey, WR (LAC) vs NYG (ECR: 20, Our Rank: WR8, Projected Points: 16.71)

It has not been a good first three weeks for Ladd McConkey. What makes that extremely surprising is that it has been a dream first three weeks for the Los Angeles Chargers, with one win against each of their three AFC West rivals. McConkey? He’s currently the WR41, with back-to-back single-digit PPR performances.

The good news? The New York Giants have played two true slot wide receivers this season, and Deebo Samuel and CeeDee Lamb finished weeks 1 and 2 as the WR6 and WR10, respectively. Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnson are also top-20 wide receivers and they each have higher touchdown projections. But our model has Ladd leading the group in targets, receptions and receiving yards.

For those of you who drafted McConkey earlier, this is the week that he produces like the top-12 wide receiver that he was thought to be before the season began.

Top projected fantasy wide receivers in Week 4

Travis Kelce, TE (KC) vs BAL (ECR: 9, Our Rank: TE2, Projected Points: 13.31)

Taylor Swift’s soon-to-be husband is not having a good year on the field. Travis Kelce’s Kansas City Chiefs are 1-2; he has only 10 catches through three games, and he has as many heated arguments with head coach Andy Reid as he does touchdowns (one).

On the bright side, his podcast business is booming. He just had Leonardo DiCaprio on as a guest, and Jimmy Fallon, Kevin Hart and Rob Riggle have all been guests in the last two weeks alone. He’s rubbing elbows with the Hollywood elite. Also on the bright side, he might not be rubbing elbows with many Baltimore Ravens.

The Ravens have allowed 20 receptions and 218 receiving yards to tight ends through three weeks, and Kelce in his career against the Ravens has had at least six receptions and 70 yards in every game but one. The name alone means you’re likely starting him, but the model likes this matchup in a game in which the Chiefs are likely going to need to be aggressive to keep up with the Ravens offense. He’s a top-3 tight end this week.

The Week 4 Fantasy Football Nays: Players Projected to Underperform Consensus Rankings

Baker Mayfield, QB (TB) vs PHI (ECR: 16, Our Rank: QB24, Projected Points: 12.35)

Baker Mayfield is a gamer. No two ways about it, as he has led a fourth-quarter game-winning drive in each of the first three weeks. But he hasn’t yet played a game without Mike Evans, and he hasn’t yet played a game against the defending Super Bowl champions.

Mayfield played three games without Evans last season. He did not surpass 200 passing yards in two of those three games and the Bucs lost all three of them. The Eagles, on the other hand, have been a dominant passing defense. They have only allowed 200 passing yards once in their last eight games and over their last 16 games, they have more games with zero passing touchdowns allowed than they do games with two or more allowed – and they’ve only surrendered more than two passing touchdowns once in that stretch.

Playing the Eagles is not good for quarterbacks. Playing the Eagles without two projected starting offensive linemen – maybe even three if Tristan Wirfs still isn’t ready – is even worse for quarterbacks. Playing the Eagles without your No. 1 wide receiver is dangerous. Having to deal with all of those at the same time is beyond difficult. Start Mayfield only if you have no other options this week.

Saquon Barkley, RB (PHI) vs TB (ECR: 6, Our Rank: RB15, Projected Points: 14.75)

The second straight player from this battle of undefeated teams, it’s the first time in years for Saquon Barkley on the Nays list. Let this serve as your yearly reminder: Vita Vea is damn good.

He was drafted in the first round by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2018. Since his second year with the team, here’s where the Bucs have finished in rushing yards allowed, respectively: first, first, third, 15th, fifth and fourth. One of those is not like the other. Through three weeks this season? The Bucs are fourth.

Now the Philadelphia Eagles come to town and while they are a ridiculous 19-1 in their last 20 games (including last year’s postseason), it’s been a little rocky to start the year. Barkley is averaging a paltry 3.34 yards per rush, a full 2.5 yards less than his 2024 average. On top of that, Barkley has only 15 receiving yards in the last two weeks. He’s an elite name, and you should definitely play him. But his production might be tempered.

Drake London, WR (ATL) vs WSH (ECR: 10, Our Rank: WR22, Projected Points: 13.77)

Drake London’s quarterback, Michael Penix Jr., came out earlier this week and said, “I gotta throw the ball to wide-open receivers when they are open.” Far be it for me to play quarterback guru from the comfort of my couch on a Sunday, but it’s probably not great for London’s fantasy managers that he’s not already doing this.

For our astute readers, you’ll remember that Atlanta Falcons No. 2 receiver Darnell Mooney was on our preseason Yays list. The model thought he was quite underrated. Well, he’s played two games this year and in weeks 2 and 3, he has 15 targets to London’s 12. By the way, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson both have 11 targets over the last two weeks. This was supposed to be a London-led offense. Instead, it’s been about as egalitarian as any in the NFL.

Didn’t see the names you were after? Be sure to check out our full Week 4 fantasy football projections. And follow along on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X for more.

The post Fantasy Football Week 4 Start ’Em, Sit ’Em: Our Yays and Nays vs. Consensus Rankings appeared first on Opta Analyst.