Week 4 NFL Showdowns: Which Unexpected Teams Are Poised to Shock the Odds?

Week 4 of the NFL season kicked off with a dramatic Thursday Night Football showdown that kept fans on the edge of their seats. The Seattle Seahawks clinched a nail-biting 23-20 victory over the Arizona Cardinals, sealed by Jason Meyers’ clutch 52-yard field goal as time expired. This win not only pushed Seattle’s record to 3-1 but also injected new life into one bettor’s audacious Super Bowl dreams. As we dive headfirst into the weekend’s slate, the question on everyone’s mind is: what surprises and opportunities await those looking to capitalize on NFL betting? Our trusted handicapping trio—Corbie Craig, Ed Feng, Michael Fiddle, and Matt Jacob—are locked in, ready to break down the sharpest picks and prop bets you need to know for Week 4. Buckle up, because this analysis will evolve all weekend long, keeping you one step ahead in the betting game. LEARN MORE

Week 4 of the NFL season started with a wild Thursday Night Football game in which the Seattle Seahawks ultimately prevailed 23-20 over the Arizona Cardinals on a walk-off 52-yard Jason Meyers field goal. The game stayed under the total of 43.5 and moved the Seahawks to 3-1 — helping one bettor’s Seattle Super Bowl dreams.

What will the rest of the weekend have in store for bettors?

Our NFL handicapping trio of Corbie Craig, Ed Feng, Michael Fiddle and Matt Jacob combine to give their best bets for Week 4 of the NFL season. This article will be updated throughout the weekend.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 41) at Pittsburgh Steelers (in Dublin, Ireland)

Fiddle: The Vikings get another weapon back in the lineup in wide receiver Jordan Addison. He is returning from a three-game suspension to start the season, which is notable because it is not a return from injury; his snap count should be a full workload. Addison has been a focal point in the offense because defenses are so fixated on star WR Justin Jefferson that Addison gets easier looks while still being a big-play threat.

The line for this game has moved from Minnesota -1.5 to -2.5, so the betting market is backing the Vikings (7-0 in international games) to make it eight consecutive wins abroad. However, the prop for Addison opened in the mid-40s and dipped down to 36.5 receiving yards — that move is too much.

This play is understanding that it is a buy at a basement price — it can’t possibly go lower than this prior to kickoff. I always want to get the best number available, and playing this Addison prop has a very high chance of being that. I think this closes in between the open and current number and gets back up to about 40.5.

Bet: Jordan Addison over 36.5 receiving yards

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-7, 38.5)

Craig: With Titans head coach Brian Callahan handing off play-calling duties, I’m looking to buy the over in this AFC South matchup. Tennessee’s offensive struggles have overshadowed a defense that’s been shaky on a week-to-week basis. Houston, meanwhile, returns home after an uninspiring 10-point outing in Jacksonville — a spot that feels ripe for a bounce-back. With the change in play-calling and the Texans’ ability to rebound offensively, the number looks a little too low.

Bet: Over 38.5

New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills (-15.5, 48)

Jacob: A week ago, the Saints traveled from New Orleans to Seattle, fell behind 21-0 after one quarter and trailed 38-6 at the half. Now this same team — which very well could be the worst in the NFL — must trek to the complete opposite side of the country to face the undefeated Bills, who will be playing on extra rest following a 10-point Thursday Night Football victory over Miami.

Could Buffalo come out flat Sunday afternoon? For sure. But that’s less likely to happen after letting the Dolphins hang around last week (14-14 halftime tie).

Granted, this play is as square as it gets. But I just don’t see any scenario in which the Bills — who had a 20-6 halftime edge at the lowly Jets two weeks ago — don’t enter the locker room with a double-digit halftime lead against the sad-sack Saints.

Bet: Bills 1H -9.5 (-118)

Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (-10, 44.5)

Jacob: Through three games, Cleveland has given up an NFL-low 172 rushing yards on 75 carries, which pencils out to 2.29 yards per rush (also an NFL low). To put that number into perspective, consider that 28 of the league’s 31 other teams are surrendering at least 3.60 yards per attempt. Even New England, which has the second-best run defense, is yielding a half-yard more per tote than the Browns (2.78).

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That brings me to Lions RB David Montgomery, who is projected for 48.5 rushing yards against Cleveland on Sunday. Montgomery was a beast in Baltimore on Monday night (151 yards on 12 carries), but he only had 57 yards against the Bears in Week 2 and 25 yards at Green Bay in the opener (11 carries in each game). Also, you have to go back to the end of the 2023 season for the last time Montgomery topped 50 rushing yards in three straight games.

Now add in the fact that Detroit will be playing on a short week — which likely means more work for the much younger Jahmyr Gibbs — and I think Montgomery’s absolute ceiling is 40 rushing yards against the Browns’ brick wall.

Bet: Montgomery under 48.5 rushing yards (-115)

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 44) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Feng: After co-leading the NFL in interceptions last season with Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield has yet to throw an interception in 2025. This is unsustainable. In addition, Mayfield has let the defense get a hand on the ball or jar it loose with a hit 12 times this season. This data on passes defended is part of my interception model that gives a 54.9% chance that Mayfield throws a pick against the Eagles.

Bet: Baker Mayfield over 0.5 INTs (-105)

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 49.5)

Fiddle: The Colts have been the sharp side against the spread so far.

The opening line after Week 3 concluded was Colts +4.5 and is now down to an expensive +3.5. I do not expect this to hit the 3, so playing the Indianapolis direction ATS has been priced out. The best way to attack this game currently is the under on Matthew Stafford’s passing yardage. This is a bet that Indy stays on the field and wins the time of possession battle.

So far this season, the Colts lead the NFL in drive success conversion rate, which is a stat that considers how often a team that starts a drive gets another first-and-10 or simply just scores. The Colts are converting at a staggeringly high 83.1% success rate. If we look at the betting market for Stafford’s yardage prop, the consensus line hovers generally below 245.5. I think this ties into the directional play of the game and likely closes with a few yards of CLV.

Bet: Stafford under 255.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 47)

Feng: San Francisco has been without key players like QB Brock Purdy, TE George Kittle and WR Brandon Aiyuk this season. They have won all three of their games by one score and even let the lowly Saints stay in the game. However, San Francisco looks much better in the underlying metrics. I take quantities such as margin of victory and passing success rate and adjust for opposing units. As a team, San Francisco ranks third in the NFL after three weeks. With Purdy back, my model has San Francisco by 6.3 points over an average Jacksonville team.

Bet: 49ers -3.5