Game 1 Showdown: Can the Underdog Padres Silence the Cubs in the 2025 NL Wild Card Series?

The stage is set at Wrigley Field, where the Chicago Cubs (92-70) are welcoming the San Diego Padres (90-72) for Game 1 of the 2025 NL Wild Card Series. Both teams split their regular season meetings evenly, each tallying 25 runs—talk about a dead heat. But here’s a question that’s been buzzing in my mind: can the Cubs leverage their home turf magic against a Padres squad boasting arguably the best bullpen in baseball? With Matthew Boyd taking the mound for Chicago and Nick Pivetta countering for San Diego, the starting pitching duel is intriguing, but the devil’s in the details of bullpen depth and lineup heat. Odds favor the Padres thanks to their razor-sharp relief corps and a lineup that’s been one of the hottest post-All-Star break. Meanwhile, the Cubs’ struggles against winning teams hint at potential trouble ahead. Could this be another chapter where postseason experience tips the scales—San Diego making its fourth run in six years versus Chicago’s first dance since 2020? Buckle up, this Wild Card battle promises plenty of drama and, maybe, a few surprises. LEARN MORE.

The Chicago Cubs (92-70) host the San Diego Padres (90-72) at Wrigley Field Tuesday at 3 p.m. ET for Game 1 of their best-of-three 2025 NL Wild Card Series. All three games will be played in the Windy City, if necessary. They split the season series 3-3, and both scored 25 runs in those games.

Cubs LHP Matthew Boyd (14-8, 3.21 ERA) gets the ball for Game 1, while San Diego sends RHP Nick Pivetta (13-5, 2.87 ERA) to the mound Tuesday. Boyd was 1-1 in two starts vs. the Padres this season with 2 ER allowed over 11.1 innings pitched (IP). Pivetta went 1-1 in two starts against the Cubs, surrendering 4 ER over 9.0 IP.

I love this price for San Diego because it has an edge in the starting pitching matchup, the best bullpen in baseball, and has a hotter and deeper lineup. The Cubs were 30 games above .500 against teams with losing records this season, but were eight games below .500 vs. winning teams.

This season, the Padres are 5-1 in Pivetta’s road starts as an underdog. Albeit that one loss was 7-1 to the Cubs in April. Regardless, according to FanGraphs, Pivetta is tied for 59th among MLB starters in Stuff+, and Boyd is tied for 118th.

Furthermore, relief pitching is crucial for playoff baseball, and San Diego’s bullpen has the best ERA and third-best WAR since the MLB All-Star Game. The Padres have three relievers in the top 20 of FanGraphs’ power rankings: Closer Robert Suarez (third) and setup man Mason Miller (fifth), and middle reliever Jeremiah Estrada (19th).

Also, San Diego’s lineup has been one of the best in baseball post-All-Star break. The Padres rank 10th or better in WAR, wRC+, and wOBA, per FanGraphs. The Cubs are in the middle of the pack in those three metrics over that span. Lastly, San Diego’s fourth postseason appearance in the last six years, whereas the Cubs haven’t made the playoffs since 2020.

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