Unexpected Barking Surprises Shake Up Wild Card Round Drama

Four games. One day. And suddenly, we’re down to the nitty-gritty of who will strut into the Divisional Series this weekend. There’s something refreshing about skipping the slog of a long postseason battle — a sprint, not a marathon, where every pitch feels like a crossroads. The Tigers, Cubs, Red Sox, and Dodgers all snagged victories yesterday, each now just a win or two away from advancing. But here’s the kicker: while the scoreboard’s clear, the betting landscape? It’s a wild maze. I’m eyeing only one bet for today’s matchups — Tigers versus Guardians — but can you really pass up the sneaky value hiding in the underdogs? Let’s unpack the real worth of future bets in these tantalizing series and see if we can spot fortune where others see chaos. LEARN MORE

Wild Card Round Value

We had all four games in the Wild Card round go yesterday, which I like quite a bit. I don’t want the long, drawn-out series. Instead, we get to see who will be in the Divisional Series that start this weekend. The Tigers, Cubs, Red Sox, and Dodgers all won their games. All of them now just need to win one of the next two in order to advance. I don’t love a play on the games today outside of the one I put out between the Tigers and Guardians, and I never wrote a playoff preview, so I’m going to share if I think there are any future bets that are worth taking at the moment for each series.

Tigers vs. Guardians

I think the Tigers win today, so I won’t tell you to take the Guardians to win the series. If you’re interested, the Guardians are at +240. If you believe the Tigers take the series, but don’t win today, your smartest option is to take the Tigers 2-1 at +265. I don’t hate the look, but as I mentioned, I took the Tigers so I’m not backing either of these. Looking ahead, the pitching matchup, should the Guardians win today, is supposed to be Jack Flaherty vs. Slade Cecconi. I’m not sure I want to back either of those guys.

Padres vs. Cubs

The Cubs have the lead in the series, but I’m not overly confident that this team can close out the series. They are starting a reliever today because apparently they have no confidence in Shota Imanaga to do his job? I’m not really sure what the strategy is for the Cubs overall. They are moving Imanaga to the bullpen for bulk relief because his first inning ERA is 7.20. But, if it is just the first inning he pitches, does it matter if it is actually the first inning? I guess that’s what they are looking to see. The Padres played fairly well yesterday, but just couldn’t get much going consistently. They send Dylan Cease out there today, and he hasn’t exactly been consistent himself. If they can get to a Game 3, they will put Yu Darvish on the mound. The Cubs will probably counter with Colin Rea, who has been good, but I’m not sure you want to have your season rest on him. The Padres are -103 to win today, and +295 to win the series. I think I’d take the Padres to win the series in terms of value. This is a closer matchup than we are seeing on the board.

Red Sox vs. Yankees

The Yankees should absolutely take a game today with Carlos Rodon taking on Brayan Bello. The problem is that Bello can be very good, and Rodon does have moments where he is really bad. If we assume the Yankees win today, they still have the edge of home-field advantage. The Red Sox, at the moment, are undecided about who they will throw in Game 3. As of right now Cam Schlittler is the Yankees’ choice. Schlittler has been dominant since coming up, but hasn’t faced Boston. I mentioned yesterday that I thought the Red Sox would win Game 1 and the Yankees would win the series. At +170 I think there is plenty of opportunity and value for the Yankees to win this one.

Reds vs. Dodgers

I’d be shocked if the Reds win today, but I’d rather bet on them to win today than I would for them to win the series. The Reds are +220 to win the game, but Zack Littell has to face Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Not exactly a walk in the park for him or for the Reds. Andrew Abbott does give the Reds a chance to win if they can extend the series, the Dodgers can either throw Shohei Ohtani or Tyler Glasnow. Hell, they can even put Clayton Kershaw on the hill. There is an embarrassment of riches in the starting rotation. I’m not looking to take the Reds for the series, but at +650, you certainly won’t see that option tomorrow. If you play both games separately, I think you could win around 4.5 units.

The Yankees are the only series I will officially back here, but I do think there is some value on underdogs. In order, I think the Padres, then Reds, and then Guardians are the options I would back from here.

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