Week 5 NFL Showdowns: Which Underdog Could Shock the League?
Ever wonder if a supercomputer truly has a crystal ball when it comes to NFL outcomes? Well, with the Opta supercomputer running full throttle this 2025 NFL season, we’re not just guessing — we’re crunching cold, hard data to dish out win probabilities for each game. The Steelers have nudged past the injury-plagued Ravens to claim early favorites in the AFC North, while the Eagles and Packers are carving paths toward NFC glory. This isn’t about gut feelings or bandwagon hype; it’s raw analytics beeping its way through every matchup—from primetime showdowns to those “meh” games with little at stake. Keep in mind, these percentages shift faster than a quarterback’s scramble once injuries hit or lineups change, and yes, ties remain the rare unicorns of the gridiron. Strap in, because whether you’re a fantasy fanatic or just love a good underdog story, this data-driven journey promises to redo how you look at NFL predictions this year. LEARN MORE.
With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we’re revealing win probabilities for each game throughout the 2025 NFL season.
The Opta supercomputer is with us every step of the way this season, providing us with data-backed predictions for all NFL games and season outcomes.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have moved ahead of the Baltimore Ravens and now have the best odds of winning the AFC North. The injury-ravaged 1-3 Ravens have fallen to seventh in terms of playoff odds, behind the Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, Steelers, Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs and Indianapolis Colts.
Meanwhile, in the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers are the most likely to make the playoffs, followed by the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
For all the matchups, we’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through our supercomputer and received our win probabilities. It’s important to note they’re straight-up win probabilities and not picks against the point spread.
So no matter if it’s a headliner or a game with nothing on the line, the model unsentimentally beeps its way through its NFL picks.
Keep in mind these percentages move throughout the week as things happen, particularly after injuries are sorted out (the following win probabilities were as of Thursday). And there’s a small chance of any game finishing in a tie, though there hasn’t been one in the NFL since the 2022 season, when there were two.
You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on the schedule page within our NFL hub.
Thursday Night Football Prediction
at Los Angeles Rams 76.0%, San Francisco 49ers 24.0%
The Rams have won three straight over the 49ers for the first time since a six-game streak from 1999 to 2001. In the last game, a 12-6 Rams win, zero combined touchdowns were scored for the first time in the matchup’s history.
Sunday Predictions
Minnesota Vikings 57.6%, vs. Cleveland Browns 42.4% (in London)
Carson Wentz recorded 350 passing yards in his second game with Minnesota and now has 523 passing yards on the year. Wentz became the third Viking with 500+ passing yards through two games with the franchise, joining Kirk Cousins (669) and Case Keenum (536).
It’s probably not the best matchup for a rookie in his debut, but the Browns have decided to turn to Dillon Gabriel at quarterback anyway.
Houston Texans 52.2%, at Baltimore Ravens 47.8%
The Ravens have not lost any of their six home games against the Texans, matching their perfect home record against the Jets (also 6-0). Baltimore joins Philadelphia as the only teams in the Super Bowl era to have a perfect home record against two different teams (minimum six games).
However, the Ravens won’t have Lamar Jackson this time around. The superstar QB is expected to miss 2-3 weeks with a hamstring injury. Since 2018, Baltimore is 71-27 during the regular season with Jackson in the starting lineup and just 8-14 without him.
Miami Dolphins 52.0%, at Carolina Panthers 48.0%
Miami’s De’Von Achane ranks fifth in the NFL with 186 yards after the catch this season, behind only Bijan Robinson (247), Christian McCaffrey (231), Bucky Irving (228) and DK Metcalf (194). He could be taking on an even larger role with Tyreek Hill out for the season.
Tetairoa McMillan has accounted for 34.3% of the Panthers’ total receiving yards so far. The only NFL players to account for a higher share are Puka Nacua (45.2%), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (43.7%), Garrett Wilson (43.0%), Justin Jefferson (38.2%) and Ja’Marr Chase (38.0%).
at Indianapolis Colts 73.8% Las Vegas Raiders 26.2%
Jonathan Taylor has 527 scrimmage yards, ranking fourth in the NFL (Bijan Robinson – 584, Puka Nacua – 555, Christian McCaffrey – 530). It’s the most scrimmage yards by a Colt through the team’s first four games of a season since 2001 (Edgerrin James, 567).
On Sunday, Ashton Jeanty became the only player in the Raiders’ franchise history to record at least 100 rushing yards and multiple receiving touchdowns in a single game. The last NFL player to do so was Christian McCaffrey in Week 15 of the 2023 season.
at New Orleans Saints 57.5%, New York Giants 42.5%
The Giants are looking to win back-to-back games for the first time since they won three straight games from Weeks 11-14, 2023 (Week 13 bye). Only the Titans and Patriots have gone longer without winning two consecutive games.
The Saints are 0-4 for the first time since 2012 and are looking to avoid their first 0-3 home start since 1995. New Orleans is the first team to start a season 0-4 despite allowing fewer than 400 total net yards in each game since the 2019 Jets.
Dallas Cowboys 54.6%, at New York Jets 45.4%
Last week was Dak Prescott’s sixth career game with at least 300 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, and a 75.0 completion percentage. All other Cowboys have combined for seven such games (five by Tony Romo, one each by Troy Aikman and Craig Morton).
The Jets are 0-4 for the ninth time in team history and the fourth time this century (2003, 2019, 2020). They’re the seventh NFL team to score at least 90 points and go winless through four games, and the first since the 2020 Falcons (106 points).
at Philadelphia Eagles 60.9%, Denver Broncos 39.1%
Jalen Hurts has gone 241 consecutive attempts without throwing an interception. He surpassed Nick Foles (237) for the most consecutive attempts without an interception by an Eagle in the last 35 seasons.
The Broncos outgained the Bengals 512-159 in total net yards in Week 4. It marked Denver’s second game since the start of last season in which it has outgained its opponent by 350 total net yards (Week 18, 2024) – all other teams have combined for one such game over the span.
at Arizona Cardinals 73.1%, Tennessee Titans 26.9%
Trey McBride ranks second in receiving yards among tight ends (234), behind only Tyler Warren (263). McBride’s 234 receiving yards through four games are the most by a Cardinals tight end since Jay Novacek in 1988 (241).
Tony Pollard has rushed for 1,340 yards through his first 20 games with the Titans. That’s the fifth-highest total through 20 games with the team. He only trails Earl Campbell (2,019), Eddie
George (1,759), Chris Johnson (1,696) and DeMarco Murray (1,502).
at Seattle Seahawks 61.0%, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 39.0%
Sam Darnold is averaging a league-high 12.93 yards per completion on 9.05 yards per attempt (second behind only Lamar Jackson). Both marks are career highs through the first four weeks of a season.
After a 72-yard touchdown in Week 4, Bucky Irving has 430 scrimmage yards this season. It is the fourth most by a Buccaneer through the first four games of a season and the most since Carnell Williams in 2005 (453).
Detroit Lions 73.3%, at Cincinnati Bengals 26.7%
This is the third straight season the Lions have started 3-1. Detroit’s nine wins in September since 2023 are tied with the Bills and Eagles for the most in the NFL.
Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins were each held under 35 receiving yards against the Broncos in Week 4. It marked the duo’s second such game this season (Week 1 versus the Browns) after having two such games from 2021-24 (both in 2021).
at Los Angeles Chargers 58.3%, Washington Commanders 41.7%
The Chargers are the only team in the NFL thus far to have two players with at least three receiving touchdowns: Quentin Johnston with four and Keenan Allen with three.
Despite having its fewest passing yards since Week 16, 2023 (both 156), Washington has the second-longest active streak in the NFL of games with at least 150 passing yards and a passing touchdown (11 straight) behind Baltimore (21 straight). It should help that Jayden Daniels is set to return under center for the Commanders.
Sunday Night Football Prediction
at Buffalo Bills 76.5%, New England Patriots 23.5%
The Bills have won five of their last six home games against the Patriots (including the postseason), including four straight. It is Buffalo’s longest home win streak against New England since a six-game run from 1988-93.
The Bills also rank second in the NFL in offensive EVE, while the Pats rank in the bottom half (or “bad” below) in defensive EVE.
Monday Night Football Prediction
Kansas City Chiefs 57.7%, at Jacksonville Jaguars 42.3%
The Chiefs have won their last eight matchups against the Jaguars (including the playoffs), their
longest active win streak against any AFC team. Prior to this win streak, Jacksonville had a 6-2 all-time record against Kansas City.
Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post NFL Predictions: Which Teams Are Projected to Win in Week 5? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
CHECK OUT THE HOTTEST DEALS ON AMAZON!
Caitlin Clark #02 Rookie Season Funko POP! Basketball WNBA: Indiana Fever Figurine with HOFSM Protector Case
$24.99 (as of October 2, 2025 05:21 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
2024-25 Panini Donruss Optic Basketball Trading Cards Retail Box
$118.99 (as of October 1, 2025 23:22 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
2024-25 Panini Mosaic Basketball Trading Cards Blaster Box
$24.99 (as of October 2, 2025 05:21 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
2025 Topps Series 1 Baseball Trading Card MLB Retail 20 Pack Box
$117.48 (as of October 2, 2025 05:21 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
2024 Topps Baseball Complete Set Factory Sealed Box Set - Baseball Complete Sets
$59.95 (as of October 2, 2025 05:21 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
NEW 2025 SCORE A TREAT Football Card 40 Pack Bundle, 120 Cards - Exclusive Halloween Parallels
$49.95 (as of October 1, 2025 23:22 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
2025 Donruss NASCAR Racing Series 56 Card Blaster Box with 1 Autograph or Memorabilia Card Per Box Plus 14 Inserts or Parallels Including Possible Orange Velocity and Ice Versions
$34.99 (as of October 1, 2025 23:22 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
2023 Bowman Chrome Baseball Mega Box
$59.00 (as of October 2, 2025 05:21 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
2024 Panini Select Football Trading Cards Blaster Box
$47.88 (as of October 2, 2025 05:21 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
Post Comment