WNBA Finals Showdown: Which Team Holds the Secret to Victory in Aces vs. Mercury?
When two seasoned titans like the Las Vegas Aces and the Phoenix Mercury face off in the WNBA Finals, you can bet it’s going to be a chess match as much as a shootout. Sure, we’ve seen a splash of young talent lighting up the league recently, but this season heads toward the old-school grit of battle-tested veterans vying for glory. The Aces are chasing history, aiming to snag their third title in four years—a feat not seen since the Comets ruled the late ’90s. Meanwhile, the Mercury, guided by Finals MVP Kahleah Copper and the indefatigable Alyssa Thomas, are hungry to end a near-decade-long drought. With three of the last four Finals MVPs on the floor, the question isn’t just who will win, but which team can exploit those subtle yet decisive edges when it matters most? Buckle up, because this showdown promises tension, strategy, and moments that will have fans gasping and cheering in equal measure. LEARN MORE
Two veteran teams will square off in the WNBA Finals. What will determine the winner between the Las Vegas Aces and the Phoenix Mercury?
There’s been an infusion of great young talent into the WNBA in the last few years, but this season, at least, will end with a battle-tested team taking home the championship.
The Las Vegas Aces won consecutive championships in 2022 and 2023, but came up short in the semifinals last year. They’re now vying to become the first team to win three titles in four years since the Houston Comets captured the first four WNBA championships from 1997-2000.
The Phoenix Mercury are looking for their first title since Diana Taurasi led them to the 2014 championship, but their core includes former Finals MVP Kahleah Copper and perennial playoff main character Alyssa Thomas, who is still searching for her first title.
In fact, with A’ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray and Copper, this series includes three of the last four Finals MVPs.
We know the lights won’t be too bright for each of these teams’ best players. And with two elite, veteran teams, this series will likely come down to which one can exploit its key advantages over the other.
Let’s break down how each team got here and what could decide an exciting WNBA Finals.
How the Aces Made the Finals
The Aces spent the regular season in the headlines for two very different reasons. For much of it, they were seen as one of the more disappointing teams in the league, starting 9-11 despite holding championship aspirations.
Then, the Aces started to play like the Aces. After getting back to .500, Las Vegas ripped off 16 straight wins to end the regular season at 30-14 and with the No. 2 playoff seed.
The playoffs haven’t been as easy as the end of the regular season, though, as the Aces have gone the distance in both of their series. To close out the Seattle Storm and Indiana Fever, they turned to Wilson, the 2025 WNBA MVP.
Wilson had 38 points in a 74-73 Game 3 win against the Storm in the first round, although it was Jackie Young who tipped in Wilson’s missed jumper with 12.4 seconds left for the game-winner.
Against the Fever in Game 5 of the semifinals, Wilson poured in another 35 points and added eight rebounds, five assists, four steals and four blocks. Despite a spirited comeback by the Fever after star Kelsey Mitchell was injured, the Aces prevailed 107-98 in overtime and moved on to the Finals for the fourth time in six years.
How the Mercury Made the Finals
The Mercury’s season had fewer peaks and valleys than the Aces’ season (who didn’t?) but still featured a three-game losing streak to end the season that immediately followed a six-game winning streak.
At 27-17, the Mercury earned the No. 4 seed, but they faced two straight elimination games in the opening round after dropping Game 1 to the New York Liberty. Thomas’s 20-point triple-double led the Mercury to a 79-73 Game 3 win that got them past the defending champions and into the semifinals.
Phoenix lost the first game of that series to the Minnesota Lynx before rattling off three straight wins to advance to the WNBA Finals for the first time since 2021.
It’s hard to imagine a more difficult path to a potential championship than the one the Mercury are facing this year. They beat last year’s champion in the first round, last year’s runner-up (and this year’s No. 1 seed) in the semifinals, and now face the winner of two of the last three championships in the WNBA Finals.
Why the Aces Will Win
It’s no surprise the Aces’ path to victory starts with the MVP.
Wilson is shouldering the scoring burden this postseason more than ever before. She’s taking 20.9 shots per game in the playoffs, 4.4 more than any other postseason run. Her efficiency has dropped from elite levels in the past three postseasons, when Wilson had an eFG% of 55.6% or higher – an excellent number for a player carrying the kind of load she does offensively.
This year, that number is down to 49.4%. She’s shooting just 47.8% on 2-point shots, down a bit from 51.3% in the regular season. Now, she’ll face these same demands for four to seven more games against Phoenix.
The good news for Wilson is that the Mercury haven’t slowed her down one bit this year. The Aces have won all three games Wilson has played against the Mercury this season, and she’s averaged 25.0 points in those contests.
The problem for the Mercury isn’t just the raw scoring numbers; it’s how easy everything has looked for Wilson in those matchups. Thomas has spent a ton of time guarding Wilson, and Satou Sabally has picked up some possessions as well. Neither’s been able to keep Wilson from getting to her spots, and when Wilson does, she scores.
She scored on post-ups, she scored in the pick-and-roll, she scored in transition. She’s a Hall of Famer who is going to get her buckets regardless. But when the buckets come as easily as they’ve looked against the Mercury this year, there’s no stopping the Aces offense.
Young will be the secondary scoring option to Wilson and she’s having her best postseason run by simply making shots inside the 3-point arc.
That may seem simple, but consider Young was 50.7% on 2-point shots in the regular season. Coming into this season, she was shooting 37.4% on 2-pointers in the playoffs for her career. This postseason, she’s converting those shots at an absurd 64.2%
The efficiency has led to Young being the No. 2 scorer the Aces need. She’s had three games of at least 25 points this postseason; before this year, she had one in her postseason career.
Gray is still here to orchestrate the offense effectively and the Aces will need a couple of big scoring games from one of their reserve guards (Dana Evans and Jewell Loyd). But if the Aces win this series, it’ll be because the sheer scoring talent of Wilson and Young was too much for the Mercury to overcome.
Why the Mercury Will Win
The Mercury may have struggled against Wilson in the regular season, but their defense has taken its play up a notch in the postseason.
Phoenix ranked fifth in points per game allowed in the regular season, but it’s allowed the fewest in the postseason. The Mercury have found the fine line in defending physically without fouling (allowing the fewest free throw attempts in the playoffs).
If the Mercury can find a way to slow the Aces down just a bit, they can win this series. The Achilles heel for the Aces this season has been defensive consistency. They thrive on big defensive plays (steals and blocks), but can be had by teams that can handle their athleticism.
The Aces have held opponents to the fewest assists per game in the playoffs, but they haven’t had to play against Thomas yet. Her league-leading 9.2 assists per game in the regular season were 3.0 more on average than any other player.
Given Thomas’ dual threat as a scorer and incredible playmaker, defenses have to be in lockstep together to stop her. The Aces haven’t always played that level of team defense this year.
This may need to be a big Kahleah Copper series. The Fever’s Odyssey Sims got to the foul line 13 times in Game 5 against the Aces by relentlessly seeking contact. Relentlessness is a huge part of Copper’s game, but she’s taken a backseat as an attacker this year in the Mercury offense, going from 5.6 free throw attempts per game in 2024 to 3.1 this season.
That number is down even further in the playoffs to 2.4. The Mercury need her to be a more-aggressive version of herself while staying within the offense.
The script is there for the Mercury: Keep the defense at an elite level, win the free-throw battle, and let Thomas make winning plays down the stretch.
Prediction: Aces in Six Games
There’s a clear path for both teams to win the series, but, ultimately, it’s really hard to pick against Wilson when the other team hasn’t displayed a great plan to counter her.
Wilson’s scoring load was mentioned previously, but the Mercury’s ask of Thomas might be even greater. She has to help contain Wilson, continue to run the offense at a high enough level to match the Aces’ firepower, and score efficiently herself. It could be the crowning moment she’s been waiting for, but it feels like a whole lot to ask.
In the end, the Aces have a few more answers and should be considered the favorites in what could be a hotly contested series.
For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post WNBA Finals Prediction: Everything You Need to Know About the Aces vs. Mercury appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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