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Fantasy football—just when you think you’ve got a grip on your lineup, injury bug bites or a player hits an unexpected slump. Ever wonder how your meticulously drafted team could be upended by the waiver wire’s unsung heroes? Well, for Week 5 of the 2025 NFL season, we’re slicing through the noise and letting cold, hard data steer the ship—sometimes in ways you won’t find in those usual expert rankings. Take a look at a theoretical team drafted eighth in a 10-team league: three players already sidelined for the season, two on IR, and others struggling—sound familiar? The silver lining? Savvy owners aren’t just waiting; they’re pouncing on waiver gems like Kenneth Gainwell and Quentin Johnson, turning overlooked picks into fantasy gold. With bye weeks creeping in and injury lists growing, smart streaming and spotting those undervalued players can make or break your season. Ready to challenge the consensus and shake up your own start-and-sit decisions? Dive into the data-backed insights that could give your lineup the edge it desperately needs. LEARN MORE

In our 2025 NFL Week 5 fantasy football start and sit, we let the data give another perspective that likely varies from the overall expert picks.

Waivers are an integral part of fantasy football.

Here are the first seven picks of a theoretical team that you or one of your league mates could have drafted this season from the eighth spot in a 10-team league, with their average draft position (ADP) in parentheses: Malik Nabers (8), Brian Thomas Jr. (15), Tyreek Hill (31), George Kittle (37), James Conner (47), Xavier Worthy (53) and Aaron Jones Sr. (67).

That would be three players out for the year, two players on IR, a player in Worthy who essentially missed the first three weeks of the season and Thomas Jr. – currently WR43.

The best way to combat injuries, or underperformance, is to monitor the waiver wire and pick up guys like Kenneth Gainwell, last week’s RB2. Or Quentin Johnson – whose ADP this season was 222 (WR69) – currently fantasy’s WR4.

He was in our Week 2 waivers piece. That remains a great resource especially as we reach the middle portion of the season as our rosters become littered with bye weeks and injuries.

The Week 5 Fantasy Football Yays: Players Projected to Overperform Consensus Rankings

Note: We’re comparing our rankings to the expert consensus rankings (ECR) from Fantasy Pros. These rankings update throughout the week (we pulled these numbers from Thursday). Once again, we are using PPR unless noted otherwise.

Geno Smith, QB (LV) vs IND (ECR: 17, Our Rank: QB11, Projected Points: 14.40)

Let’s get the elephant in the room out of the way. In fantasy, we repeat, IN FANTASY ONLY, interceptions aren’t a big deal. In fact, interceptions that gift the other team good field position likely lead to a higher volume of passes for your quarterback due to the need to keep up with the other team that is inevitably benefiting from good field position.

That’s important because Smith’s seven interceptions are the most in the NFL. But he’s also eighth in passing yards and plays of 25+ yards. His Week 5 opponent, the Indianapolis Colts, are fifth in the NFL in points scored. The defense is also 21st in passing yards allowed and coming off a game in which they allowed 375 passing yards, three touchdowns, and three passes of 25+ yards.

With bye weeks starting, if you’re looking for a quarterback to spot start with all the injuries and byes, Smith is among the best options that are likely available. Only Cincinnati Bengals’ QB Jake Browning and Cleveland Browns’ new QB Dillon Gabriel are projected to throw more interceptions. But Smith is sixth in projected passing yards and ninth in projected passing touchdowns. He’s just outside our top 10.

Cam Skattebo, RB (NYG) vs NO (ECR: 13, Our Rank: RB7, Projected Points: 16.95)

There was the making of something really fun brewing in East Rutherford for about a quarter last weekend. Jaxson Dart looked promising, Skattebo was running over, through and around people, and Malik Nabers was running routes like a true No. 1 receiver.

Well, nice things don’t always last because Nabers tore his ACL later in the game. So now, for Giants fans, it’s all about their rookie tandem in the backfield. Skattebo had 15 carries in last week’s surprising win over the Los Angeles Chargers. His 25 total carries were tied for the most by any player in a single game this season. More of that is coming the rest of this season.

Better than the volume, this week’s opponent does not have a defense nearly as good as the Chargers. Against the New Orleans Saints this season, through four weeks, James Conner finished as the weekly RB14, Christian McCaffrey finished as RB5 and Kenneth Walker III and James Cook both finished as RB10.

It’s Skattebo’s turn this week. He’s our model’s third most likely running back to score a touchdown this week. He’s got a good chance of being the fourth straight running back to produce a top-10 performance against the Saints.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR (CIN) vs DET (ECR: 10, Our Rank: WR4, Projected Points: 17.66)

This has got to be the lowest that Chase has been ranked in a single week in over a year. For the No. 1 overall pick by ADP for this season, it hasn’t been a great season, particularly in these last two games without Joe Burrow. But there’s hope this week.

The Detroit Lions have allowed seven passing touchdowns in the three games this season that haven’t come against the Cleveland Browns. This seems like a good time to mention that since entering the league, Chase is first in the NFL in receiving touchdowns (47).

Only twice since the start of the 2022 season has Chase had 50 or fewer receiving yards in back-to-back games. Chase, in the next game after each of those respective mini streaks, averaged over 100 receiving yards. In a game in which the Bengals will most definitely need to score to keep up with Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and the Detroit Lions offense, this is a big bounce back spot for Chase.

Chris Olave, WR (NO) vs NYG (ECR: 22, Our Rank: WR11, Projected Points: 14.73)

Through four weeks, so not including yesterday’s San Francisco 49ers win over the Los Angeles Rams, do you know who was first among all wide receivers in targets? It was Puka Nacua. Second? Chris Olave.

That’s a good recipe against a New York Giants defense that has an excellent pass rush, but such a poor secondary that at times the pressure hasn’t mattered. No defense has allowed more plays of 10+ yards, no defense has allowed more passing plays of 10+ yards and only three defenses allow more total yards per game than the G-men.

All of which is to say, you combine a guy who is one of five wide receivers our model is projecting for double digit targets with a defense that surrenders yards at an alarming rate, and you have a player with a prime opportunity for success. There’s always a chance it goes poorly because we’re talking about a receiver on the New Orleans Saints here, with Spencer Rattler throwing to him, but Chris Olave has all the makings of a wide receiver who could threaten the top 10.

The Week 5 Fantasy Football Nays: Players Projected to Underperform Consensus Rankings

Drake Maye, QB (NE) vs BUF (ECR: 7, Our Rank: QB14, Projected Points: 14.21)

Do you know which team is first in the NFL in passing yards allowed? Do you know which team is first in the NFL in yards allowed per pass play? That would be the Buffalo Bills.

Meanwhile, and I mean this sincerely, the best pass defense the New England Patriots have played through four weeks is the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are the only defense inside the top 20 in passing yards allowed per game that Maye has faced this season. Sunday Night, in New York, against the only remaining unbeaten team in the AFC is a huge step up in competition.

He has three straight games with multiple passing touchdowns and is sixth in the NFL in passing yards per game. This week? He’s projected to be 13th in passing yards and 24th in passing touchdowns.

Saquon Barkley, RB (PHI) vs DEN (ECR: 7, Our Rank: RB20, Projected Points: 12.74)

Barkley was our model’s RB15 last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He had a rushing touchdown and four receptions. Last season, in his historic campaign, he only had three games where he had both a rushing touchdown and at least three receptions. His average in those three games? It was 37.6 PPR points. In Week 4, he finished with 17.4 PPR points for a weekly finish as the RB16.

This is what we wrote last week…

Now the Philadelphia Eagles come to town and while they are a ridiculous 19-1 in their last 20 games (including last year’s postseason), it’s been a little rocky to start the year. Barkley is averaging a paltry 3.34 yards per rush, a full 2.5 yards less than his 2024 average.

Well, you can add another win to the Eagles’ record. A win, mind you, that came in a game in which they did not complete a single pass in the second half (yes you read that right). And Barkley only averaged 2.3 yards per carry, bringing his season-long average down to 3.1.

Things don’t get any easier this week against a stout Denver Broncos defense that has only allowed four touchdowns through four weeks. Barkley is barely a top-20 running back for our model this week.

Emeka Egbuka, WR (TB) vs SEA (ECR: 9, Our Rank: WR25, Projected Points: 12.12)

It’s either Egbuka or Tyler Warren for the unofficial honor of most productive rookie through four weeks as both have stepped into their offenses and become immediate contributors.

Egbuka has at least six targets and four receptions in every game, has four touchdowns through four games and is tied for the lead across the entire NFL with five plays of 25+ yards through four weeks. With Chris Godwin working his way back from injury, and Mike Evans currently injured, he has been everything the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could have possibly hoped for.

But now he faces his toughest test yet. The Seattle Seahawks are tied for second in the NFL in points allowed and are third in yards allowed per play. With Tampa unlikely to move the ball up-and-down on this Seahawks defense, Egbuka becomes nothing more than a touchdown-dependent WR2.

Didn’t see the names you were after? Be sure to check out our full Week 5 fantasy football projections. And follow along on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X for more.

The post Fantasy Football Week 5 Start ’Em, Sit ’Em: Our Yays and Nays vs. Consensus Rankings appeared first on Opta Analyst.