Can Purdue’s Next 3 Games Reveal True Progress or Just Empty Promises?

Purdue football finds itself at a crossroads after a punishing stretch that tested their mettle against some of the Big Ten’s elite. The Boilermakers, having shown flashes of promise yet falling short in key moments, are no longer content with just battling through games—they’re craving tangible results that reflect their true capability. Coach Barry Odom’s challenge is as simple as it is daunting: “Talk is cheap. What are your actions?” With October rolling out a trio of attainable matchups, each offering a distinct benchmark of progress, Purdue has a chance to redefine its season’s trajectory. The coming weeks won’t just be about wins and losses; they’ll signal whether this team can flip the script, seize momentum, and lay the foundation for a breakthrough. The stage is set for a critical chapter in Boilermaker football—time to find out if they’ve got what it takes. LEARN MORE

Purdue football has three straight winnable games on its schedule after a three-game gauntlet.
Each game provides a measure of progress different from another. Here are the keys to watch.
Next up: Purdue at Minnesota, 7:30 p.m. Saturday

WEST LAFAYETTE — Purdue football scattered fragments of the elements necessary to win in the Big Ten across three disappointing losses.

The Boilermakers no longer seem interested in credit for keeping the fight up for 60 minutes when overmatched. They want credit for playing up to their potential.

“Talk is cheap. What are your actions?” coach Barry Odom said after Saturday’s 43-27 loss to Illinois. “That’s pretty clear cut. What’s it going to be?”

The rest of October features fertile opportunities to turn positive actions into wins.

Purdue completed a three-game stretch against teams either currently or recently ranked in the Top 25. Its final four opponents are a collective 18-2.

In between come three games in the Boilermakers’ competitive neighborhood. It starts with Saturday’s trip to Minnesota, continues on the road the following week at Northwestern and concludes with a homecoming visit from Rutgers.

“With this stretch of games, we can definitely create momentum for ourselves,” running back Devin Mockobee said. “We try to focus on one game at a time because that’s the only one that’s important right now. But yeah, depending on what we do this month, it can change a lot about how we operate the rest of the season.”

On paper, the most winnable games on the schedule occur in succession over the next three weeks. In each case, victory will require completing transitions which have already begun.

Saturday, at Minnesota

Gophers’ record: 3-2 (1-1 Big Ten)

Last week: Lost at No. 1 Ohio State, 42-3

ESPN SP+ ranking: No. 60

Recent trends with Purdue: Under first-year coach Ryan Walters in 2023, the Boilermakers dominated the second half en route to a 49-30 victory. Purdue also win in Minneapolis in 2022, 20-10.

Measure of progress: Is Purdue’s offense multi-dimensional enough to consistently drive on a good defense?

Saturday’s loss at Illinois was all the more frustrating for Purdue because it occurred despite crucial advances on offense. Take out the two sacks Ryan Browne sustained and the backfield averaged 7.3 yards per carry. Antonio Harris broke off runs of 25 and 41 yards, providing some crucial lightning alongside Mockobee’s thunder.

Replicating that production won’t be easy. The Gophers may be one of the more underrated defensive programs in the Big Ten, if not the nation. They ranked fifth in the conference in yards allowed per play before Ohio State’s elite offense did a number on them. They are trying to rank in the top six in that category for the fifth time in six years.

Minnesota had allowed only 2.7 yards per carry against FBS opponents before facing Ohio State. That ranked No. 13 nationally. Solid linebacker play from Maverick Baranowski and Devin Williams leads that effort.

Stopping the run generally puts opponents in tough third-down situations. Behind edge rusher Anthony Smith, the Gophers racked up 12 sacks against their first three FBS opponents.

Especially on the road, Purdue cannot rely exclusively on Browne staying on the correct side of the great play/bad gamble fence and the occasional gimmick play for a big gain. In his first two career games against Minnesota, Mockobee went for 112 yards and a touchdown (and a lost fumble) on 11 carries and 153 yards and a score on 17 carries.

The Gophers may not be flashy, but they will absolutely punish sloppy run blocking technique and fundamentals. If Purdue can’t build on Saturday’s progress, the offense will keep operating with a ceiling.

Oct. 11, at Northwestern

Wildcats’ record: 3-2 (1-1)

Last week: Northwestern put up 515 yards on Sun Belt-leading Louisiana Monroe in a 42-7 victory.

ESPN SP+ ranking: No. 71

Recent trends with Purdue: In a microcosm of last season, the Boilermaker defense couldn’t get off the field on third down, the offense couldn’t produce enough big plays, and Northwestern left Ross-Ade Stadium with a 26-20 overtime win. This is Purdue’s one and only game at Martin Stadium — the temporary 12,000-seat stadium in use while Ryan Field is renovated.

Measure of progress: Can Purdue’s defense establish an upper hand and keep it?

Prior to Saturday’s explosion, Northwestern was probably the Big Ten’s worst offense. Entering Saturday, its quarterbacks had thrown one touchdown against six interceptions against FBS opponents. Its pass efficiency rating in those games — an anemic 89.24 — trailed league-leading Washington by over 100 points.

Must be those lake effect winds.

Preston Stone threw for 262 yards and three touchdowns on 20 of 31 passing. Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson completed all 17 of his attempts for 226 yards and three touchdowns in the season opener against the Warhawks. It remains to be seen if Northwestern actually improved Saturday, or merely pounced on a break in the schedule.

By being a middle-of-the-Big Ten rushing attack, though, the Wildcats can keep themselves in games regardless. If Purdue bottles up Caleb Komolafe and Joseph Himon II, it can put this game on Stone’s shoulders.

The defensive front must dictate terms in this game. Linebackers Mani Powell and Charles Correa need to play downhill and fill run gaps. The defensive interior still remaining after T.J. Lindsey’s season-ending injury — Demeco Kennedy, Ian Jeffries, Jamarrion Harkless and others — need to shrink or seal those gaps.

That season-opening shutout of Ball State seems like a long time ago. It does, however, suggest Purdue has the potential to limit an offense like Northwestern’s to its true, ordinary identity.

Oct. 18, vs. Rutgers

Scarlet Knights’ record: 3-2, 0-2

Last week: Idle. The previous two weeks included losses to Iowa (38-28) and Minnesota (31-28).

ESPN SP+ ranking: No. 49

Recent trends with Purdue: The teams haven’t played since 2020, and Rutgers won both of the East-West crossover meetings since joining the Big Ten.

Measure of progress: Can the Boilermakers, quite simply, rise to the occasion?

Odom’s first homecoming game comes against the one coach who has proven he can get the most out of Rutgers football. Greg Schiano has done what Odom aspires to do — take over a once-successful program at its lowest point and resurrect it with three bowl trips in five years.

It should go without saying Rutgers will see its game at Purdue — preceded by games against Washington and Oregon — as critical to its chances of making its third straight bowl trip.

This may be Purdue’s best chance to win a shootout all season. The Scarlet Knights ranked last in the Big Ten in total defense against FBS opponents (6.82 yards per play) until Illinois pushed the Boilers (6.93) below them. (I don’t want to say, “Heck, even Iowa scored four offensive touchdowns against them.” But we’re all thinking it.)

Browne and Rutgers quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis have a lot in common as passers. The latter is in his fourth year of starting for Big Ten teams, though. He’s not in Luke Altmyer’s class but, like the Illinois QB, he can capitalize on a defense’s vulnerabilities.

He has also already been sacked 15 times in five games. CJ Nunnally IV has begun to flash the form which made him an All-MAC rush end. Kennedy is picking up the slack left behind by Lindsey. The defensive front left the Illinois game with some momentum.

This one could come down to which offensive line better protects its quarterback on a high-scoring day. And for Browne, the quarterback who came home again, what would be more fitting than a Homecoming win?

Win even one of these games, and Purdue can break its Big Ten losing streak and make a more convincing claim of progress. Win all of them, and those final four games — at Michigan, vs. Ohio State, at Washington, vs. Indiana — take on the stakes of bowl eligibility.

Three more October weekends will help define this season.

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