College Football Week 7: Could This Week’s Shocking Upset Rewrite the Entire Season?

Week 7 of the college football season is shaping up to be yet another rollercoaster, packed with marquee matchups like Indiana-Oregon, Illinois-Ohio State, and Alabama-Missouri that have the potential to rewrite the narrative of a surprisingly wide-open playoff race. After a weekend where underdogs had their day, the Associated Press top five features Ohio State, Miami (FL), Oregon, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M, yet the chatter isn’t just about who’s on top—but who might tumble next. With the new 12-team College Football Playoff stirring the pot, the stakes have never felt higher, making every down, every throw, and every tackle carry more consequence. Curious if history will repeat itself with another wave of season-altering upsets? Strap in—because this guide is loaded with sharp observations, deep dives into advanced stats, and a little history to spice up every big game. LEARN MORE

Indiana-Oregon, Illinois-Ohio State, Alabama-Missouri and more. We have a guide to Week 7 of the college football season with notes, observations, and historical and advanced data points for all the big matchups.

In a relatively wide-open landscape, Ohio State, Miami (FL), Oregon, Ole Miss and Texas A&M have opened the week in the Associated Press top five after a wild, upset-heavy weekend.

Oklahoma, Indiana, Alabama, Texas Tech and Georgia are also in the top 10 as legitimate threats for spots in the 12-team College Football Playoff that debuted last December.

Each week throughout the NCAA football season, no matter if it’s another chapter of a legendary rivalry or a game we may all be a bit less excited about, we have something to say about every game across the AP Top 25.

Here’s our guide to Week 7 of the college football season with notes, observations, and historical and advanced data points for all the big matchups involving ranked teams. The games are listed in order of start time.

(Success rate accounts for how often a team gains a successful play – or allows on defense. For example, 50% of the yards to gain on first down, 70% on second down, or 100% on third or fourth downs.)

College Football Week 7: Friday Night’s Game

No. 24 South Florida (4-1, 1-0 American) at North Texas (5-0, 1-0)

Spread: South Florida -1.5 (via DraftKings/FanDuel as of Wednesday)
Meetings Since 1980: South Florida 2-0
Last Meeting: South Florida 24, North Texas 17 (Oct. 5, 2002)
Offensive Success%: North Texas 17th/South Florida 104th
Defensive Success%: North Texas 44th/South Florida 83rd

South Florida’s two wins in this series came in 2001 and 2002. The 23-year gap between matchups is the longest by USF against any opponent in program history.

South Florida ran for 407 yards on Friday against Charlotte after having 425 rushing yards against the 49ers last season. They are the only FBS team to have a 400-yard rushing game
in each of the last two seasons.

The Mean Green like to utilize quick pass concepts the most (33.3%), and they rank 21st in the FBS with a 53.4% passing success rate on those plays. They’re also 14th in run success rate (51.9%) out of inside zone, which they run the most (54.8%).

North Texas quarterback Drew Mestemaker has hurt defenses by both throwing and running. He has the sixth-highest well-thrown percentage (79.4) in the FBS among QBs who also average 8.0 yards per carry on scrambles. Mestemaker also has the second-best pickable pass percentage among those with at least 80 adjusted attempts (no spikes or throwaways).

UNT’s Caleb Hawkins, who is second on the team in rushing, ranks third in the country with 8.00 yards per carry on plays with a run disruption and fourth with 3.97 average yards after contact.

College Football Week 7: Saturday’s Games

Pittsburgh (3-2, 1-1 ACC) at No. 25 Florida State (3-2, 0-2)

Point Spread: Florida State -10.5
Meetings Since 1980: Pitt 4-3
Last Meeting: Florida State 24, Pitt 7 (Nov. 4, 2023)
Offensive Success%: Florida State 13th/Pitt 69th
Defensive Success%: Florida State 29th/Pitt 18th

One area that Pitt might be able to excel in is the quick passing game. The Panthers use quick pass concepts the most (40.1%) through the air and Florida State has allowed the fourth-highest success rate (44.7%) in the ACC against those concepts.

It isn’t a good matchup for Florida State on the ground. The Seminoles run through an inside zone concept a whopping 67.1% of the time, but the Panthers are one of the league’s best teams against inside zone – ranking third with a 27.0% run success rate allowed.

No. 1 Ohio State (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) at No. 17 Illinois (5-1, 2-1)

Point Spread: Ohio State -14.5
Meetings Since 1980: Ohio State 24-11
Last Meeting: Ohio State 52, Illinois 14 (Nov. 18, 2017)
Offensive Success%: Ohio State 1st/Illinois 34th
Defensive Success%: Ohio State 6th/Illinois 124th

Ohio State’s Julian Sayin has thrown for 13 touchdowns and three interceptions in his five games in 2025, and he leads the nation with a 92.6 well-thrown percentage among those with at least 80 adjusted attempts. The Buckeyes have taken care of their QB, as Sayin has only been sacked on an FBS-low 1.6% of his drop backs.

Buckeyes leading rusher Bo Jackson (360 yards, two TDs) ranks third in the FBS with 4.12 average yards gained after contact, while WR Jeremiah Smith is tied for third with seven touchdown burns. He also has team highs of 35 catches for 463 yards and six scores.

Luke Altmyer of Illinois is the only QB in the FBS to have a well-thrown rate above 80% (81.7) and a pickable pass percentage below 2.0 (1.4) while averaging at least 7.0 yards per carry on designed runs. Overall, he owns the nation’s 12th-best pickable pass percentage.

No. 8 Alabama (4-1, 2-0 SEC) at No. 14 Missouri (5-0, 1-0)

Point Spread: Alabama -3.0
Meetings Since 1980: Alabama 5-0
Last Meeting: Alabama 34, Missouri 0 (Oct. 26, 2024)
Offensive Success%: Alabama 55th/Missouri 7th
Defensive Success%: Alabama 55th/Missouri 4th

The Crimson Tide utilize drop-back passing concepts the most – 34.3% of the time and they rank fourth in the SEC with a 47.1% success rate on those plays. Things won’t be easy, however, against a Missouri team that allows a league-low 16.2% pass success rate versus drop backs.

Alabama will have to figure out a way to slow Missouri running back Ahmad Hardy, who leads the nation with 730 yards and nine touchdowns through five games. Hardy is also ninth in the FBS with 3.53 average yards after contact.

For the most part (44.1% of the time), the Tigers like to run inside zone with Hardy, who averages 6.64 yards per carry out of that look. But the going could be tough against an Alabama team that is the best in the SEC against inside zone – allowing a 22.6% run success rate.

Washington State (3-2) at No. 4 Ole Miss (5-0)

Point Spread: Ole Miss -32.5
Meetings Since 1980: None
Last Meeting: None
Offensive Success%: Washington State 95th/Ole Miss 15th
Defensive Success%: Washington State 131st/Ole Miss 42nd

The Ole Miss offense hasn’t skipped a beat with Trinidad Chambliss under center. He’s thrown for 1,033 yards with five TDs and one pick in his three games as the starter, including a 24-19 win over then-No. 4 LSU. Chambliss has also run for 266 yards and two more scores.

Chambliss and Co. face a Washington State defense that ranks sixth from the bottom of the FBS in defensive success rate (46.7%). Defensive success rate accounts for how often a team allows a successful play. Like offensive success rate, that includes 50% of the yards to gain on first down, 70% on second down, or 100% on third or fourth downs.

Washington State’s Jaxon Potter has yet to take a sack this season. He’s the only quarterback who hasn’t been dropped among those with at least 80 adjusted pass attempts (he has 94). Yes, Potter is getting rid of the ball quickly. He has the ninth-fastest release time in the FBS (2.24).

No. 22 Iowa State (5-1, 2-1 Big 12) at Colorado (2-4, 0-3)

Point Spread: Iowa State -3.0
Meetings Since 1980: Colorado 24-7
Last Meeting: Colorado 34, Iowa State 14 (Nov. 13, 2010)
Offensive Success%: Colorado 88th/Iowa State 54th
Defensive Success%: Colorado 108th/Iowa State 66th

Iowa State works mostly out of either a quick passing concept (37.7%) or drop backs (32.2%) when attacking through the air. Colorado is the Big 12’s worst team when it comes to defending the quick passing game, allowing a league-high 52.1% pass success rate.

Virginia Tech (2-4, 1-1 ACC) at No. 13 Georgia Tech (5-0, 2-0)

Point Spread: Georgia Tech -14.5
Meetings Since 1980: Virginia Tech 12-8
Last Meeting: Virginia Tech 21, Georgia Tech 6 (Oct. 26, 2024)
Offensive Success%: Virginia Tech 97th/Georgia Tech 28th
Defensive Success%: Virginia Tech 72nd/Georgia Tech 32nd

Virginia Tech quarterback Kyron Drones hasn’t been afraid to hold on to the ball. He’s been sacked 14 times – tied for the 10th most in the FBS – and owns the third-longest average release time (2.90).

Terion Stewart, the Hokies’ leading rusher, has been tough to bring down. He leads the FBS with .486 missed or broken tackles per touch among those with at least 30 carries. Stewart also ranks second in average yards gained after contact (4.83).

NC State (4-2) at No. 16 Notre Dame (3-2)

Point Spread: Notre Dame -22.5
Meetings Since 1980: Tied 2-2
Last Meeting: Notre Dame 45, NC State 24 (Sept. 9, 2023)
Offensive Success%: NC State 41st/Notre Dame 35th
Defensive Success%: NC State 22nd/Notre Dame 89th

Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price have made quite a pair in the Notre Dame backfield. Love leads the team with 444 rushing yards and six TDs, while Price has 356 yards and seven scores. Price also ranks second in the FBS with .367 missed or broken tackles per touch.

NC State leads the ACC with a 50.0% pass success rate with 113 (RB-TE-WR) personnel on drop-back attempts, which is the concept it runs the most (45.1% of the time). That’s a trend that could continue against Notre Dame, which allows a 36.3% pass success rate (the same as the ACC average) on those concepts.

No. 7 Indiana (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) at No. 3 Oregon (5-0, 2-0)

Point Spread: Oregon -7.5
Meetings Since 1980: Indiana 1-0
Last Meeting: Indiana 30, Oregon 24 (Sept. 11, 2004)
Offensive Success%: Indiana 2nd/Oregon 11th
Defensive Success%: Indiana 2nd/Oregon 31st

Oregon’s Dante Moore, a Heisman Trophy candidate through five games, has done an excellent job taking care of the football. He’s only thrown one pickable pass in 131 attempts, giving him the third-best PKP% in the FBS (0.76).

Omar Cooper Jr. has been a big weapon in Indiana’s passing game. He’s tied for third in the FBS with seven touchdown burns, ranks sixth in big play percentage (51.6) and ninth in burn percentage (83.9).

The Hoosiers have a tough tandem on the defensive front. Mario Landino is third in the FBS with a 10.2% adjusted sack rate among qualified interior defensive linemen, while Tyrique Tucker ranks fourth at 10.0%. Landino is also second with a 24.5% pressure rate.

No. 6 Oklahoma (5-0, 1-0 SEC) vs. Texas (3-2, 0-1) in Dallas

Point Spread: Texas -1.5
Meetings Since 1980: Oklahoma 24-20-2
Last Meeting: Texas 34, Oklahoma 3 (Oct. 12, 2024)
Offensive Success%: Oklahoma 30th/Texas 67th
Defensive Success%: Oklahoma 1st/Texas 9th

Arch Manning is airing it out for Texas, averaging the sixth-most air yards per attempt in the FBS (11.1). However, accuracy has been a major issue. His 69.4 well-thrown percentage and 8.21 pickable pass percentage (PKP%) are both way worse than the nation average.

In fact, his PKP% is third-worst in the FBS among those with at least 80 attempts.

Parker Livingston leads the Longhorns with 279 receiving yards on 13 catches. And he also paces all of FBS with a 60.6 big-play percentage. Our big play metric is a weighted formula that shows how often a receiver generates “big plays” (20+ yard burns or burn-touchdowns).

Oklahoma’s Keontez Lewis ranks fourth in the nation with an 87.5 burn percentage among those with at least 75 routes run. Isaiah Sategna III, who leads the Sooners with 26 catches, 359 yards and three touchdowns, is ninth in burn rate at 82.8%.

Sooners defensive tackle David Stone ranks third in the FBS in 32.4% run disruption rate among qualified interior defensive linemen. Teammate Jayden Jackson is fourth with a 23.5% pressure rate.

Arkansas (2-3, 0-1 SEC) at No. 12 Tennessee (4-1, 1-1)

Point Spread: Tennessee -12.5
Meetings Since 1980: Tennessee 11-7
Last Meeting: Tennessee 19, Arkansas 14 (Oct. 5, 2024)
Offensive Success%: Arkansas 6th/Tennessee 10th
Defensive Success%: Arkansas 123rd/Tennessee 70th

Star Thomas, Tennessee’s second-leading rusher (305 yards), is fourth in the FBS with .351 missed or broken tackles per touch (MBTK/TOU) among those with at least 30 carries.

Thomas’ backfield mate, DeSean Bishop, has rushed for a team-high 335 yards and ranks 12th (.288) in MBTK/TOU. Bishop is also seventh in average yards gained after contact (3.57).

There’s likely to be a lot of yards gained on the ground in this contest. Tennessee is 14th in run-game success rate (48.6%), while Arkansas ranks 16th (48.2%) in that category. At the same time, the Razorbacks sit 16th from the bottom of the FBS in success rate against the run (44.4%) and the Vols are only four spots better (43.8%).

The Volunteers’ Chris Brazzell II is tied with Arizona’s Javin Whatley for the FBS lead with eight touchdown burns. He leads the team with 31 receptions, 531 yards and seven TDs.

College Football Week 7: Saturday Night’s Games

Florida (2-3, 1-1 SEC) at No. 5 Texas A&M (5-0, 2-0)

Point Spread: Texas A&M -7.5
Meetings Since 1980: Texas A&M 3-2
Last Meeting: Texas A&M 33, Florida 20 (Sept. 14, 2024)
Offensive Success%: Florida 71st/Texas A&M 48th
Defensive Success%: Florida 20th/Texas A&M 17th

Texas A&M’s KC Concepcion is one of the more dangerous wideouts in college football. He ranks seventh in the FBS among wideouts who have run at least 75 routes with an 84.8 burn percentage. He’s also seventh with 19.9 burn yards per target.

Concepcion, who leads the Aggies with five receiving scores, is also one of the top deep threats in the country with the sixth-highest depth of target (17.5) in the FBS.

Texas A&M cornerback Dezz Ricks is third in the nation among those with at least 60 coverage snaps with an 18.8% burn rate allowed.

No. 10 Georgia (4-1, 2-1 SEC) at Auburn (3-2, 0-2)

Point Spread: Georgia -3.5
Meetings Since 1980: Georgia 27-18-1
Last Meeting: Georgia 31, Auburn 13 (Oct. 5, 2024)
Offensive Success%: Georgia 20th/Auburn 60th
Defensive Success%: Georgia 33rd/Auburn 23rd

Auburn’s Jackson Arnold has been sacked an FBS-high 20 times. He’s been dropped once every 13 drop backs on average, the third-highest rate in the country.

It should be interesting to see how Auburn’s run game fares. The Tigers’ go-to look is inside zone (53.2% of the time) on the ground out of 113 personnel, and they have a 50.0% run success rate (fourth in the SEC) out of those looks. Georgia, though, has allowed a league-best 19.6% run success rate against inside zone concepts.

Kansas (4-2, 1-1 Big 12) at No. 9 Texas Tech (5-0, 2-0)

Point Spread: Texas Tech -14.5
Meetings Since 1980: Texas Tech 19-2
Last Meeting: Texas Tech 16, Kansas 13 (Nov. 11, 2023)
Offensive Success%: Kansas 23rd/Texas Tech 18th
Defensive Success%: Kansas 57th/Texas Tech 5th

Boden Groen of Kansas leads the FBS with a 69.2 big play percentage and a 92.3 burn percentage among tight ends who have run at least 50 routes. Groen is also tied for 13th among TEs with 234 receiving yards.

David Bailey of Texas Tech has been tough on opposing offensive lines. He leads the nation with a 38.8% pressure rate among edge rushers with at least 40 pass-play snaps. Bailey is also tied for fourth with six adjusted sacks, which are plays in which a defender achieves a pressure on a sack play, even if that defender does not actually record the sack.

No. 15 Michigan (4-1, 2-0 Big Ten) at USC (4-1, 2-1)

Point Spread: USC -2.5
Meetings Since 1980: USC 3-2
Last Meeting: Michigan 27, USC 24 (Sept. 21, 2024)
Offensive Success%: Michigan 33rd/USC 3rd
Defensive Success%: Michigan 26th/USC 62nd

Michigan freshman Bryce Underwood has a below-average adjusted completion percentage (56.9) and well-thrown rate (71.6), but he’s been dangerous with his legs with an FBS-best 12.9 yards per carry on scrambles.

The Wolverines’ Jaishawn Barham has been one of the nation’s best all-around edge players to date. He not only leads the FBS with a 31.1% run disruption rate, but he also ranks fifth with a 35.7% pressure rate.

Among quarterbacks who average at least 9.0 air yards per attempt with a minimum of 80 adjusted attempts, USC’s Jayden Maiava has the third-best well-thrown percentage (85.2).

South Carolina (3-2, 1-2) at No. 11 LSU (4-1, 1-1)

Point Spread: LSU -8.5
Meetings Since 1980: LSU 11-1-1
Last Meeting: LSU 36, South Carolina 33 (Sept. 14, 2024)
Offensive Success%: South Carolina 111th/LSU 49th
Defensive Success%: South Carolina 60th/LSU 25th

South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers has been sacked 14 times – once every 13.9 drop backs, on average. That’s the highest sack-per-drop back percentage in the FBS among those with 80 adjusted pass attempts.

Sellers certainly isn’t afraid to go for the big play. He ranks fifth in the nation with 11.4 air yards per attempt, has the sixth-longest release time (2.83) and has yet to throw a check-down pass this season.

He may want to avoid looking in PJ Woodland’s direction. The LSU cornerback ranks sixth in the nation with a 33.3% open rate allowed among those with at least 60 coverage snaps.

Brandon Cisse has been tough to shake in the South Carolina secondary. He ranks fourth in the FBS with a 29.4% open rate allowed among qualified cornerbacks.