Week 6 NFL Showdowns: Which Underdogs Are Poised to Upset the Giants?

You ever wonder what it’d be like if a supercomputer could call the shots on the NFL season — not just guess, but actually crunch the numbers and tell us who’s got the upper hand each week? Well, wonder no more. The Opta supercomputer is doing just that for the 2025 NFL season, turning raw data into straight-up win probabilities for every single game. And let me tell you, the gridiron landscape is shifting — the Pittsburgh Steelers are surging ahead in the AFC North, leaving the injury-plagued Ravens trying to catch up, while in the NFC, the Eagles and Packers are staking their claim as playoff frontrunners. It’s like watching a chess match with a computer whispering the moves before they happen — only here, it’s football, passion, and pure math colliding. Curious about what the numbers say for Week 6 and beyond? Dive in and see if your gut aligns with the machine. LEARN MORE.

With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we’re revealing win probabilities for each game throughout the 2025 NFL season.

The Opta supercomputer is with us every step of the way this season, providing us with data-backed predictions for all NFL games and season outcomes.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have moved ahead of the fading Baltimore Ravens and now have the best odds of winning the AFC North. The injury-ravaged 1-4 Ravens have fallen to 10th in terms of playoff odds, with the Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars and Steelers on top.

In the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers are the most likely to make the playoffs, followed by the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

For all the matchups, we’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through our supercomputer and received our win probabilities. It’s important to note they’re straight-up win probabilities and not picks against the point spread.

So no matter if it’s a headliner or a game with nothing on the line, the model unsentimentally beeps its way through its NFL picks.

Keep in mind these percentages move throughout the week as things happen, particularly after injuries are sorted out (the following win probabilities were as of Wednesday). And there’s always a small chance of a tie (we had the league’s first draw since 2022 earlier this season).

You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on the schedule page within our NFL hub.

NFL Week 6: Thursday Night Football Prediction

Philadelphia Eagles 68.3% at New York Giants 31.7%

The Eagles (4-1) have won 19 of their last 23 games against the Giants (1-4) dating back to the 2014 season (including the postseason). Philadelphia’s 19-4 record against the Giants is tied for the third-best record by any team against a divisional opponent over this span.

NFL Week 6: Sunday Predictions

Denver Broncos 68.3% vs. New York Jets 31.7% (in London)

This will be the Broncos’ (3-2) first game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, while the Jets (0-5) are 0-2 all time there. Both teams are .500 all time in international games (Jets, 2-2; Broncos, 1-1).

Los Angeles Rams 68.1% at Baltimore Ravens 31.9%

The Ravens are 5-1 against the Rams (3-2) since 2007, though they won’t have star QB Lamar Jackson in this matchup. The Rams have had a starting QB throw for 200 or more passing yards in their last three matchups versus Baltimore (1-4), their longest such streak in this series.

Los Angeles, which is coming off a heartbreaking 26-23 overtime loss to San Francisco, ranks among the NFL leaders in offensive and defensive EVE (Opta’s efficiency vs. expected model).

Dallas Cowboys 57.0%, at Carolina Panthers 43.0%

The Cowboys (2-2-1) have won three straight games against the Panthers (2-3), scoring at least 30 points in all three wins. The last time Dallas scored 30 or more points in four straight games against a single opponent was a four-game run against the Giants from 2018-20.

at Indianapolis Colts 70.9%, Arizona Cardinals 29.1%

This will be the first head coaching matchup between former Eagles coordinators Jonathan Gannon and Shane Steichen. The Cardinals (2-3) are 5-6 in interconference matchups under Gannon, while the Colts (4-1) are 3-8 under Steichen.

at Jacksonville Jaguars 54.6%, Seattle Seahawks 45.4%

This will be Seattle’s first trip to Jacksonville (4-1) since Week 14 of the 2017 season (a 30-24 Jags win). The Jaguars, who are coming off a big Monday night win over the Chiefs, have won three of five home games against the Seahawks (3-2), scoring at least 20 points in all five games.

Los Angeles Chargers 60.8%, at Miami Dolphins 39.2%

The Dolphins (1-4) are 6-3 against the Chargers (3-2) since 2013, including a win in their most recent matchup in 2023 Week 1. In that game, the Chargers allowed 466 net passing yards, the most they have allowed in a single game since at least 1950.

at Pittsburgh Steelers 67.3%, Cleveland Browns 32.7%

The Steelers (3-1) have won 21 consecutive home games against the Browns (1-4), the longest active home winning streak by any team versus any single opponent in the NFL. It is the longest such winning streak by the Steelers versus any single opponent all time.

New England Patriots 57.8%, at New Orleans Saints 42.2%

This is New England’s first trip to the Superdome since Tom Brady and Drew Brees combined for 803 passing yards and five touchdowns in Week 2 of the 2017 season. The Patriots (3-2) are 5-1 all time in New Orleans (1-4), the team’s best road record versus any single opponent.

at Las Vegas Raiders 64.1%, Tennessee Titans 35.9%

The Raiders (1-4) are 12-7 all time at home against the Titans (1-4), but they’ve lost each of the
last two home meetings. A Titans win would match their longest road winning streak against the Raiders after winning their first three on the road in this matchup.

at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 61.5%, San Francisco 49ers 38.5%

The 49ers (4-1) are 21-6 all time against the Buccaneers (4-1), the best record between any two current teams in the NFL (minimum 25 matchups).

at Green Bay Packers 86.5%, Cincinnati Bengals 13.5%

Each of the last two meetings between the Bengals (2-3) and Packers (2-1-1) has gone to overtime, with Green Bay winning by three points in each game. It’s the only time in Packers history that the team has won consecutive games against a team, with each win coming in OT.

Although he was just acquired from the Browns this week, veteran quarterback Joe Flacco is reportedly set to start against the Packers.

NFL Week 6: Sunday Night Football Prediction

Detroit Lions 44.5% at Kansas City Chiefs 55.5%

The Chiefs (2-3) are 6-2 at home against the Lions (4-1), winning these games by an average margin of 16.3 points. Both of Detroit’s road wins in Kansas City have come by one point, including the last matchup between these teams in Week 1 of the 2023 season.

NFL Week 6: Monday Night Football Prediction

Buffalo Bills 57.3%, at Atlanta Falcons 42.7%

Heading into their matchups with the 2-2 Falcons, the Bills (4-1) are 13-3 against NFC opponents since 2022, tied for the best mark in the NFL with the Ravens. The Bills are averaging a league-high 32.0 points in those matchups.

at Washington Commanders 65.4%, Chicago Bears 34.6%

The Commanders (3-2) are 8-2 against the Bears (2-2) over the last 20 years, their best record against any NFC foe over that span. Washington and Chicago have had seven of their 10 meetings since 2005 decided by one possession or less (the Commanders have won them all).

Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.

The post NFL Predictions: Which Teams Are Projected to Win in Week 6? appeared first on Opta Analyst.