Chicago Cubs Stave Off Elimination, But Can They Stop Brewers from Sealing NLDS Fate in Game 4?

So here we are, folks — the Chicago Cubs, scrapping their way off the mat with a gritty 4-3 win over the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 3, dodging a sweep for now. But let’s ask the real question: can they really keep this up when the Brewers, with Freddy Peralta ready to flex that pitching muscle again, come knocking at Wrigley Field for Game 4? Michael Busch’s leadoff homer was a spark, sure, but Milwaukee’s firepower and that bullpen depth — well, it might just be too much to handle over a full series stretch. And don’t get me started on Boyd’s 2025 numbers against Milwaukee — those stats don’t lie, and Peralta’s got the edge. Postseason baseball distills down to pitching battles and durability; the Brewers seem to have the clearer path here. As someone who’s banked on the Brew Crew all season (and regrettably forgot to bet them for the pennant), I’m leaning in “house money” style for Thursday. Do you think the Cubs have the magic left in that 1-2 tank, or is Milwaukee just cruising toward glory? Sit tight — it’s about to get interesting. LEARN MORE.

The Chicago Cubs (1-2) prevented a sweep Wednesday with a 4-3 win over the Milwaukee Brewers (2-1) in Game 3 of the 2025 National Division League Series. Chicago hopes to stave off elimination again when it hosts Milwaukee at Wrigley Field for Game 4 at 9:08 p.m. ET.

Brewers-Cubs Game 4 has the same starting pitching matchup as the NLDS opener: Milwaukee RHP Freddy Peralta vs. Chicago LHP Matthew Boyd. Cubs 1B Michael Busch hit a leadoff home run vs. Peralta in the 1st inning, but it was all Brew Crew after. The Brewers chased Boyd early with a six-run 1st inning and won Game 1, 9-3.

After Busch went yard, Peralta settled in, though, fanning nine Cubs across 5.2 innings, and allowing just one more solo home run. Before leaving the game with an injury, Milwaukee LF Jackson Chourio went 3-for-3 with a double and a three-run bomb. Chourio is hitting .545 in this series (6-for-11) with six RBI.

Going back to the starting pitching matchup, the Brewers have dominated Boyd this year. He’s given up 11 ERs (15 total runs) with nine walks and just six strikeouts in 11 innings across three starts against Milwaukee in 2025. Conversely, Peralta is 4-1 in his last five starts vs. Chicago this season with a 3.38 ERA.

Furthermore, all of Peralta’s advanced pitching numbers against active Cubs are better than Boyd’s vs. current Brewers. According to Statcast, Peralta’s expected slash line is .189/.298/.350 in 228 plate appearances (PA) against Chicago hitters, while Boyd has a .224/.301/.389 expected slash line in 93 PA vs. Milwaukee batters.

Ultimately, postseason baseball comes down to pitching, and the Brewers have an edge in that department. Milwaukee’s relievers have given up one ER in 18.0 innings pitched in this series. Both teams used five relievers in Game 3 Wednesday, but the Brewers have a deeper bullpen.

They have been the MLB team I’ve profited from most this season, and I’m pissed I don’t have a “Milwaukee to win a 2025 NL Pennant” bet in my account. I bet the Brewers to win the NL Central at the beginning of the season and doubled down on them to win their division after the All-Star break. Perhaps I’m chasing value, but I’m betting the Brew Crew Thursday with “house money”.

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