Inside the NBA’s Next Frontier: Which Teams Will Rise, Fall, or Shock the World in 2025-26?
As the 2025-26 NBA season tip-offs, every franchise is eyeing that Larry O’Brien Trophy — but let’s be honest here, not all goals are created equal. Ever wonder why the Washington Wizards can’t just shoot for the moon the way the Golden State Warriors do? It’s because in this brutal, cutthroat league, realistic expectations are just as crucial as the slam dunks and buzzer-beaters. Some teams are going all in on a championship chase, others are focusing on snagging playoff wins, while a few are simply aiming to develop promising young talent and keep their heads above water. So, what’s your team’s true target this season — moonshots or modest milestones? Buckle up, ’cause we’ve broken down what every single NBA squad should be gunning for, based on where they stand today. Prepare yourself for some surprising insights and hard truths — after all, in hoops, as in life, not everyone reaches their goals, but everyone’s got to have one. LEARN MORE.
Some NBA teams should shoot for the moon and others should shoot for something a bit closer. Here’s what every team’s goal should be for the upcoming season.
At long last, the 2025-26 NBA season is almost here. And given that the league is composed of the fiercest competitors on the planet, all 30 teams will enter the season with dreams of competing for the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
However, it isn’t realistic for a rebuilding team like the Washington Wizards to have the same goals as a veteran group like the Golden State Warriors. Every team will fight to win as many games as they can, but every franchise’s front office has different goals.
So, we’ve set up different checkpoints of goals that each team should be striving to meet this upcoming season.
Note that there will be teams with conflicting goals. For instance, there are only eight teams that will win a playoff series this year, but more than eight teams will come into this season with that expectation.
That’s the point of goals. Some people reach them, while others fall short.
Team Goal: Win the NBA Championship
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- Cleveland Cavaliers
- Denver Nuggets
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- Los Angeles Clippers
- Golden State Warriors
- New York Knicks
For this group, it is championship or bust. These teams generally fall under two different buckets: some are teams with the firepower to win an NBA title and some are veteran casts who have gone all in to win it all.
The Thunder are the defending champions who brought back their top 12 players in total minutes played. Of course, going back-to-back should be the only thing on their mind.
The Cavaliers also look to have what it takes to win an NBA championship. They won 64 games last season, finished second in TRACR, were third in our preseason TRACR rankings and are returning all the main ingredients from that team. Plus, they made some savvy offseason acquisitions – adding a 3-and-D guard in Lonzo Ball and a change-of-pace 5 (he’s more of a floor spacer than Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley) in Larry Nance Jr.
The Nuggets, Clippers, Warriors and Knicks made a litany of free-agent signings/trades to enhance their depth. Unfortunately, all of them still have fatal flaws that could rear their ugly heads in the postseason. But given the amount of money they have tied to their rosters (four of the top 11 teams in spending) and the pressure to maximize their star players’ primes (Nikola Jokic, Kawhi Leonard, Stephen Curry and Jalen Brunson), they need to win while they have the chance.
Speaking of Leonard, until a punishment for the whole circumvention fiasco (if one is, in fact, dished out), the Clippers should be operating with a win-now mindset.
The Timberwolves are kind of their own thing. They didn’t make any major acquisitions this offseason. In fact, they lost a key piece in Nickeil Alexander-Walker. They will likely be banking a ton on internal development. But since they made the Western Conference finals each of the last two seasons, an NBA Finals appearance (and victory) is the next logical step.
Team Goal: Win a Playoff Series (Or Two)
- Los Angeles Lakers
- Milwaukee Bucks
- Detroit Pistons
- Houston Rockets
- Orlando Magic
- Atlanta Hawks
- Memphis Grizzlies
- San Antonio Spurs
- Miami Heat
This group doesn’t feel as much pressure, but winning in the postseason is still a necessary ingredient to a successful season.
The Hawks, Magic, Heat and Rockets all made moves this offseason (adding Alexander-Walker, Kristaps Porzingis, Desmond Bane, Norman Powell and Kevin Durant) to become more formidable. And those first three teams all play in an Eastern Conference that is ripe for the taking.
Why aren’t the Rockets in the tier above? Not having one of their best players for the entire season (Fred VanVleet) should force them to recalibrate expectations for this season. The Spurs made their big splash at the trade deadline (trading for De’Aaron Fox), and they need to start winning before their generational superstar (Victor Wembanyama) gets impatient.
Speaking of impatience, the Bucks may not have the team on paper to make a deep playoff run, but it seems like that’s what it will take to keep Giannis Antetokounmpo from requesting a trade.
Some may feel the Lakers should be in the tier above. After all, LeBron James could call it quits any year now, and they ranked fourth in our preseason TRACR. But the Lakers’ front office didn’t go all the way in the way teams like the Clippers did. It seems like their goal is to make a major move next offseason. So, we will keep them with this group for now.
The Grizzlies may have traded away their third-best player in Bane (55th in the NBA in offensive DRIP), but they still have Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. Also, it could be argued that they are more balanced with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in the rotation than Bane.
In any event, the front office wouldn’t be asinine for expecting a playoff series win.
Team Goal: Make the Playoffs
- Dallas Mavericks
- Sacramento Kings
- Phoenix Suns
- Portland Trail Blazers
- Philadelphia 76ers
- Chicago Bulls
- Indiana Pacers
- Toronto Raptors
The Mavericks and Trail Blazers both project to be great defensive teams with questionable offenses. The same goes for the Raptors to a lesser degree (their defense might not be as good, but their offense has more shot creation).
Being so weak on one side of the ball makes it pretty hard to win a playoff series, but as the 2024-25 Magic showed us (second in defensive TRACR, 27th in offensive TRACR), you can definitely still make it to the postseason.
The Kings, Suns and Bulls are the poster children for the directionless franchise movement. None of them has the talent it takes to even compete for upper/middle-class status, but these teams also have too many capable players to bottom out and tank. While it won’t help them in the long term, all these teams have a chance to be one of the last 16 standing.
The Pacers won’t have Tyrese Haliburton all season. So, their title hopes are shot. But they still have Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Benedict Mathurin, Ben Sheppard, TJ McConnell and the newly added Jay Huff (a reasonable facsimile to Myles Turner). They are going to be pretty good this year, and they should have their eyes set on the playoffs – barring any other injuries.
The 76ers are difficult to place. If Joel Embiid is healthy, the goal should be an NBA title or bust. But if it’s the same story as last season, even making the play-in tournament would be a stretch. So, they’re probably somewhere in the middle.
Team Goal: Make the Play-In Tournament
- Boston Celtics
- New Orleans Pelicans
- Charlotte Hornets
Normally, being a play-in team carries a negative connotation as it signals that your team exists in basketball purgatory. Not bad enough to tank, but also not good enough to truly compete. However, for these three teams, it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.
When Jayson Tatum tore his Achilles tendon in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference semifinals, it guaranteed that the 2025-26 season would be a lost cause for the Celtics. That’s why they parted ways with numerous key figures from their 2024 title team (Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, Al Horford and Luke Kornet).
But the Celtics still have a handful of guys that they will want to flank around Tatum when he returns (Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard and, maybe, Anfernee Simons). Boston will want to keep up appearances and show that it can remain quasi-competitive with its best player on the shelf for the entire season.
After trading their 2026 first-round pick for the rights to Derik Queen, the Pelicans have no reason not to win as many games as they can in 2025-26. Unfortunately, this team is extremely injury-prone and, frankly, not equipped to deal with many of the goliaths in the unforgiving Western Conference. So, the Pelicans’ best bet is to diminish the value of the first-round pick they sacrificed as much as they can while also developing their young players (Jeremiah Fears, Yves Missi, Queen and Jordan Hawkins).
As for the Hornets, they added some veteran players (Colin Sexton, Spencer Dinwiddie, Pat Connaughton and Mason Plumlee) and need to show LaMelo Ball that they have some sort of future. Still, they rank pretty low in the East peaking order (even with all the heavyweights that are hindered by injuries), so a play-in berth will be about as good as it gets for them.
Team Goal: Develop Young Players
- Utah Jazz
- Washington Wizards
- Brooklyn Nets
This tier is pretty self-explanatory. The Jazz, Wizards and Nets are all prospect-laden teams that are trying to accumulate as much young talent as possible.
This season won’t be so much about wins and losses as it will be internal growth.
For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post Reality Check: What Should Every NBA Team’s Expectations Be in 2025-26? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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