Uncover the Surprising NFL Week 6 Picks That Could Turn the Tide in Circa Million VII!

Ever had one of those weeks where your picks don’t just lose—they get obliterated? Yeah, Week 5 of the Circa Million VII handicapping contest was that kind of disaster for me. I mean, I could chalk up past flubs to “bad beats” or “right side, wrong result,” but this? An utter embarrassment. I knew three of my top four picks were done for as soon as kickoff hit. Thank goodness I had the wits to slap the Houston Texans onto my card at the last minute, or it would’ve been a clean sweep of misery. So, what’s the secret sauce for bouncing back in NFL betting when the odds—and reality—collude against you? Let’s dive into the sharp takes on KC’s surprising offense resurgence, Cleveland’s underrated potential, and a Seahawks pick that’s got more layers than a Seattle drizzle. Ready to shake off that losing streak and get back in the winner’s circle? Buckle up. LEARN MORE.

Often, I can say something like, “Well, those were a couple of ‘bad beats’” or “Right side, wrong result”. But not NFL Week 5 of the Circa Million VII handicapping contest. That was a f*cking embarrassment. I knew three of my top-four picks last week were losers immediately. Thank god, I came to my senses and added the Houston Texans to my Week 5 card at the last second.

Listed by order of confidence. First is the most confident, and fifth is the least.

I saw enough from KC’s offense in a 31-28 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football. The Chiefs had season-highs in total yards (476), passing yards (318), and first downs (26). They have WRs Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown back on the field, so they have adults in the WR room, so to speak.

Furthermore, the Lions are missing their three best cornerbacks from the start of training camp. Andy Reid knows Detroit’s offense is a truck right now and needs to keep it off the field. Kansas City leads the league in rushing EPA/play and plays per drive. I’m expecting Patrick Mahomes to papercut the Lions to death Sunday night.

Ultimately, the market is treating Detroit like the best team in the NFL and sleeping on the Chiefs. They are healthier with a better quarterback, coach, and defense, and only -2 at home in a semi-must-win game. I know Kansas City is off to a 2-3 start, but I’m “buying the dip” and fading an overrated Lions team.

LISTEN to Lions-Chiefs analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark.

There is too much situational analysis, overseas travel spot, rest disadvantage, “Mike Tomlin voodoo,” and rookie quarterback stuff baked into these odds. Because, based on the stats, Cleveland should be a +3.5/+4 underdog here. The Browns have a -0.1 yard-per-play differential and are +12 in net first downs vs. the toughest schedule, per Pro Football Focus (PFF).

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has a -0.8 yard-per-play differential (ranked 27th) and -25 fewer first downs than its opponents against the 30th-toughest schedule, according to PFF. The Steelers have been out-gained and converted fewer first downs in every game this season, even against the bum-a** Jets.

Also, Cleveland rookie QB Dillon Gabriel comported himself well in his NFL debut last week vs. a Minnesota Vikings defense that leads the NFL in EPA/play, per Sūmer Sports. Gabriel completed 19-of-33 passes for 190 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. Conversely, Pittsburgh’s defense is 23rd in EPA/play.

Granted, I’m not sure Gabriel is Cleveland’s long-term answer at quarterback. However, he is athletic enough for Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski, who is a good playcaller, to build a modern game plan around. They have a solid offensive line, and rookie RB Quinshon Judkins looks like a game-breaker.

More importantly, Cleveland’s pass-rush should destroy Aaron Rodgers. The Browns lead the NFL in pass-rush win rate, per ESPN, and Pittsburgh’s offensive line is 31st in pass-blocking win rate. Rodgers doesn’t hold onto the ball long enough to push the ball downfield, and if he does, Myles Garrett will light him up.

LISTEN to Chargers-Dolphins analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark.

My two biggest concerns for this pick are that the Seahawks could be popular because everyone saw the Jaguars get a little lucky in their Monday Night Football win over KC, and Seattle’s injury report. But I’m taking the Seahawks regardless, because head coach Mike Macdonald could devise a defensive game plan despite their injuries, and QB Sam Darnold could win this game for Seattle.

Macdonald is one of the best defensive minds in the NFL, and he’s had all week to coach up the second-string because Seattle’s injured players haven’t practiced this week. Plus, Jacksonville’s passing game sucks. The Jaguars are 21st in passing EPA/play, per Sūmer Sports, and their pass-catchers lead the league in drops (17).

Furthermore, Jacksonville’s bread and butter is the run game, and Seattle’s defense is second in rushing EPA/play allowed. If the Seahawks can force Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence into a lot of third-and-obvious, Lawrence will make a crucial mistake. He’s due for one brain-dead mistake per game.

Also, Seattle’s offense is healthy, and Darnold is legitimately balling. He is PFF’s second-highest graded quarterback in the NFL. Darnold is fifth in aDOT and has the lowest turnover-worthy play rate. So, he’s throwing the ball downfield accurately, and Jacksonville’s pass coverage isn’t that good.

In fact, Jacksonville’s defense is a little “smoke and mirrors” right now. Per ESPN Bet data analyst Sam Hoppen, the Jaguars lead the league in net EPA generated off turnovers, which is unsustainable. Their down-to-down defense is mediocre, and Darnold will be able to move the ball, as crazy as that might still sound.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.