NFL Week 7 Shockers: Can the Bears’ Surging Offense Upend the Odds and Rewrite the Playbook?

Boy, did Week 6 shake things up for NFL underdogs! Nine out of fifteen games saw the less-favored teams covering the spread, and the drama peaked on Monday night with two underdogs pulling off straight-up wins—Atlanta Falcons toppling the Buffalo Bills and those gritty Chicago Bears snatching a last-second victory over the Washington Commanders. This season’s been a wild ride—only the Colts and Buccaneers hold the rare 5-1 records (who could have predicted that?), and honest truth is, nobody’s quite sure which squads are destined for the Super Bowl just yet. It’s a thrilling, albeit maddening puzzle for bettors trying to figure out who’s worth trusting week in and week out. So if you’re scratching your head over the chaos and craving some insight into Week 7’s top betting angles and odds, stick with me — we’re diving right in. LEARN MORE

It was a solid Week 6 for NFL underdogs.

Underdogs covered in nine of the 15 games last week. The week ended with two underdogs winning straight up on Monday night, as the Atlanta Falcons upset the Buffalo Bills and the Chicago Bears clipped the Washington Commanders as time expired. There has been a lot of chaos this season, which has led to only two 5-1 teams (Colts and Buccaneers … who saw that coming?) and nobody really knowing who are the true Super Bowl contenders. It has made for an interesting start to the season, and a challenging one for bettors, who probably have no idea which teams to trust yet.

Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) celebrates after a win over the Commanders on Monday night. (AP Photo/Daniel Kucin Jr.)

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Here are the top betting storylines for Week 7, with odds from BetMGM:

No against the spread outliers

The season is just six weeks old. Some teams have only played five games due to the bye. But 31 of 32 teams have at least two wins against the spread and two losses against the spread too, via Action Network’s standings. There aren’t any strange undefeated or winless teams against the spread.

The only team that doesn’t have at least two wins and two losses against the spread is the Baltimore Ravens. They are 1-5 against the spread, with injuries and a bad defense ravaging them early this season. The Ravens are on the bye, which means they’ll get healthier, and the schedule gets a lot easier for a few weeks. We’ll see if they can get on a run.

The extreme parity in the NFL so far this season doesn’t make it easy for bettors. Everything has seemed to be a week-to-week proposition.

Rest advantage mattered in Week 6

Rest advantage is a factor worth watching in the NFL. In Week 6, eight teams had more rest days than their opponent. Those teams were 6-2 including three underdogs that won straight up (Seahawks, Falcons, Bears).

Teams with more rest having an edge is a consistent trend in the NFL and a logical one. Teams with more time off can rest and prepare longer than that week’s opponent. This week there are many teams that have a rest edge: Saints have one more day off than the Bears, Vikings have four more days off than the Eagles, Giants have three more days of rest than the Broncos (who are coming back from London), the Cowboys got one more day off than the Commanders, the 49ers have an extra day against the Falcons and the Texans have been off for seven more days than the Seahawks. Keep that in mind.

Not many big spreads

Last week wasn’t a great slate in the NFL, and it produced some ugly football. This week’s spreads indicate the games should be a little more competitive.

There is only one spread of more than a touchdown. The Kansas City Chiefs, who will get top receiver Rashee Rice back in the lineup, are 11.5-point favorites over the Las Vegas Raiders. There are two spreads of seven points (Patriots over Titans, Broncos over Giants) and the rest are within a touchdown. It should be a better week of NFL games.

New coach bump or revenge game?

The Titans fired coach Brian Callahan on Monday and the timing was interesting. It came as the New England Patriots prepare to come to Nashville. Of course, the Patriots are now coached by Mike Vrabel, who was surprisingly fired by the Titans in January of 2024. The Titans haven’t rebounded from that move.

Sometimes teams can get a bit of a short-term boost from firing a terrible coach. Maybe that happens for Tennessee. But bettors also have to consider Vrabel is not going to take any pity on the team that fired him. It’s a legitimate revenge angle. The Patriots are -7 against the Titans this week. New England seems like a team that will be on everyone’s teaser this week.

Bears have been scoring

Ben Johnson has made a difference for the Chicago Bears. The Bears offense is exceeding expectations so far this season with their new head coach calling plays. They have gone over their team total in all five games this season and are the only NFL team to be undefeated in that category, according to Evan Abrams of Action Network. That doesn’t mean the Bears will be the 1972 Dolphins of team totals, but it is telling that the Bears offense is consistently beating the market. Overall the Bears are slightly beating the market too, going 3-2 against the spread so far this season.