Week 8 College Football Showdowns: Which Top 25 Teams Are Poised for Shocking Upsets?

Week 8 of the college football season rolls in with a tantalizing mix of fierce rivalries, emerging contenders, and the ever-looming question: who will really rise to claim a coveted spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff? With Ohio State, Miami (FL), Indiana, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M steering the top five in the AP Top 25 Poll, the stage is set for some high-stakes gridiron drama. And if you think the story ends there, think again—Alabama, Texas Tech, Oregon, Georgia, and LSU lurk close behind, ready to pounce. From blistering matchups that light up Friday night skies to Saturday showdowns packed with thrills, this week’s guide dives deep into notes, nuggets, and eye-opening data that reveal what really makes these clashes tick. So, are you ready to uncover which teams may surprise, which players will dominate, and maybe even which legendary streaks might falter? Let’s kick off this week’s journey through the excitement and nuances that only true college football buffs crave. LEARN MORE

We have a guide to Week 8 of the college football season with notes, observations, and historical and advanced data points for all the big matchups.

In a relatively wide-open landscape, Ohio State, Miami (FL), Indiana, Ole Miss and Texas A&M have opened the week in the top five of the Associated Press Top 25 Poll.

Alabama, Texas Tech, Oregon, Georgia and LSU are also in the top 10 as legitimate threats for spots in the 12-team College Football Playoff that debuted last December.

Each week throughout the NCAA football season, no matter if it’s another chapter of a legendary rivalry or a game we may all be a bit less excited about, we have something to say about every game across the AP Top 25.

Here’s our guide to Week 8 of the college football season with notes, observations, and historical and advanced data points for all the big matchups involving ranked teams. The games are listed in order of start time.

Friday Night’s Games

Louisville (4-1, 1-1 ACC) at No. 2 Miami (FL) (5-0, 1-0)

Spread: Miami -13.5 (via DraftKings/FanDuel as of Wednesday)
Meetings Since 1980: Miami 9-4
Last Meeting: Miami 52, Louisville 45 (Oct. 19, 2024)

Louisville and Miami have combined to average 81.5 points in their last four meetings (since 2016). That is fourth-highest in any head-to-head matchup between two FBS programs in that span (minimum four games).

Mark Fletcher Jr., who leads Miami with 428 rushing yards and five touchdowns, has been tough to bring down. He ranks 11th in the FBS with 3.03 average yards gained after contact among backs with at least 50 carries.

Louisville has been tough against the run, ranking 24th in run success rate allowed (32.1%). Success rate accounts for how often a team gains a successful play – or allows on defense. For example, 50% of the yards to gain on first down, 70% on second down, or 100% on third or fourth downs.

Carson Beck and the Hurricanes head into the contest 15th nationally with a 47.4% pass success rate, but the Cardinals have been solid against the pass, too. Louisville is sixth with a 28.2% pass success rate allowed.

No. 25 Nebraska (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten) at Minnesota (4-2, 2-1)

Spread: Nebraska -7.5
Meetings Since 1980: Nebraska 9-8
Last Meeting: Minnesota 13, Nebraska 10 (Aug. 31, 2023)

Minnesota has won each of the last five meetings, though the last four matchups have all been decided by seven points or fewer. It is tied for Minnesota’s longest win streak against any opponent in the last 45 years (also five straight versus Miami, OH).

This is the latest into a season Nebraska has been ranked in the AP Top 25 since the 2016 season. The Cornhuskers are just 2-4 in their last six games while ranked in the Top 25 dating back to that 2016 season.

Saturday’s Games

No. 12 Georgia Tech (6-0, 3-0 ACC) at Duke (4-2, 3-0)

Point Spread: Duke -1.5
Meetings Since 1980: Georgia Tech 30-14
Last Meeting: Georgia Tech 24, Duke 14 (Oct. 5, 2024)

Georgia Tech has rushed for at least 140 yards in 21 straight games against Duke. That’s the longest streak by a power conference team against any single opponent in the last 30 years.

The Yellow Jackets are 15-6 versus the Blue Devils since 2003. The only other team they’ve beaten 10 or more times in that span is North Carolina (also 15-6).

No. 10 LSU (5-1, 2-1 SEC) at No. 17 Vanderbilt (5-1, 1-1)

Point Spread: Vanderbilt -2.5
Meetings Since 1980: LSU 12-1
Last Meeting: LSU 24, Vanderbilt 17 (Nov. 23, 2024)

LSU holds a 25-7-1 edge over Vanderbilt in the all-time series and has won five straight road games, including the last four by 20+ points. The Commodores’ four straight home losses by 20+ points to the Tigers are their longest streak against a single opponent in the last 40 years.

After putting 420 yards in last week’s 20-10 win over South Carolina, the Tigers have an 88-game streak with at least 250 total yards – the longest active streak in the SEC.

Among quarterbacks who average at least 9.0 air yards per attempt with a minimum of 80 adjusted attempts, Vandy’s Diego Pavia has the nation’s best well-thrown percentage (86.5).

No. 14 Oklahoma (5-1, 1-1 SEC) at South Carolina (3-3, 1-3)

Point Spread: Oklahoma -5.5
Meetings Since 1980: South Carolina 1-0
Last Meeting: South Carolina 35, Oklahoma 9 (Oct. 19, 2024)

South Carolina’s defense recorded nine sacks of Oklahoma when the teams met in Week 8 of last season. It marked the Gamecocks’ most sacks and tied for the Sooners’ most sacks allowed versus a conference opponent in the last 30 years.

South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers has been sacked 19 times – once every 14.3 drop backs, on average. That’s the highest sack-per-drop back percentage among those with 80 adjusted pass attempts.

Oklahoma’s Keontez Lewis ranks seventh in the FBS with an 85.7 burn percentage among those with at least 75 routes run. Isaiah Sategna III, who leads the Sooners with 30 catches, 420 yards and three touchdowns, is 12th in burn rate at 82.2%.

No. 4 Texas A&M (6-0, 3-0 SEC) at Arkansas (2-4, 0-2)

Point Spread: Texas A&M -7.5
Meetings Since 1980: Texas A&M 17-11
Last Meeting: Texas A&M 21, Arkansas 17 (Sept. 28, 2024)

Arkansas has a 42-36-3 edge in the all-time series against Texas A&M, but the Aggies have won 12 of 13 since they joined the SEC in 2012. Texas A&M’s 12 wins against Arkansas are three more than it has against any other conference opponent in that span (nine vs. South Carolina).

The Aggies are 6-0 with 2,751 yards gained on offense and 21 sacks on defense. The only other SEC teams in the last 30 seasons to start a season 6-0 with 2,700+ yards gained and 20+ sacks on defense are Alabama in 2016, Mississippi State in 2014 and Florida in 1996.

Texas A&M’s KC Concepcion, second on the team in catches (28) and receiving yards (447), ranks 13th in the FBS among wideouts who have run at least 75 routes with an 82.0 burn percentage.

No. 5 Ole Miss (6-0, 3-0 SEC) at No. 9 Georgia (5-1, 3-1)

Point Spread: Georgia -7.5
Meetings Since 1980: Georgia 23-7
Last Meeting: Ole Miss 28, Georgia 10 (Nov. 9, 2024)

This is the seventh ranked matchup between Ole Miss and Georgia and the second matchup with both teams ranked in the top 10. The Bulldogs are 4-2 in ranked matchups against the Rebels and five of the six ranked matchups between these schools have been decided by 14 points or more.

Under head coach Kirby Smart, Georgia is 7-0 against AP-top 10 ranked opponents at home. The Bulldogs are the only team since 2016 (when Smart first became head coach) to have multiple home wins versus AP-top 10 ranked opponents at home without a single loss.

Trinidad Chambliss threw for 1,286 yards with seven TDs and one pick in his four starts for Ole Miss, including a 24-19 win over then-No. 4 LSU. He’s also run for 281 yards and three scores.

Michigan State (3-3, 0-3 Big Ten) at No. 3 Indiana (6-0, 3-0)

Point Spread: Indiana -27.5
Meetings Since 1980: Michigan State 30-10
Last Meeting: Indiana 47, Michigan State 10 (Nov. 2, 2024)

Michigan State has won 10 of its last 12 road games against Indiana, including three straight. It’s the Spartans’ longest active road win streak against any conference opponent. This will be the first time Michigan State plays a ranked Indiana team on the road since October 1993 (Indiana won, 10-0).

Indiana’s No. 3 ranking is its highest in the AP Poll’s history. It’s also the first time this century the Hoosiers have received first-place votes in the poll.

Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza has the nation’s fourth-best well-thrown percentage (83.9%) among quarterbacks who average at least 9.0 air yards per attempt with a minimum of 80 adjusted attempts.

Along with top wideout Elijah Sarratt, Omar Cooper Jr. has been a big No. 2 in Indiana’s passing game. He’s tied for fourth in the FBS with eight touchdown burns (Sarratt has seven) and ranks eighth in burn percentage (84.6).

No. 1 Ohio State (6-0, 3-0 Big Ten) at Wisconsin (2-4, 0-3)

Point Spread: Ohio State -25.5
Meetings Since 1980: Ohio State 25-11-1
Last Meeting: Ohio State 24, Wisconsin 10 (Oct. 28, 2023)

Wisconsin is 4-17 all time against the AP No. 1 team, with its last win coming against Ohio State in 2010. Since that upset, the Buckeyes have won 10 straight against the Badgers.

Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, who has thrown for 15 touchdowns and three interceptions in his six games, leads the nation with an 87.8 well-thrown percentage among QBs with at least 80 adjusted attempts. He also leads the FBS with a 188.1 passer rating.

Buckeyes leading rusher Bo Jackson (407 yards, two TDs) ranks third in the FBS with 3.64 average yards gained after contact, while WR Jeremiah Smith is tied for fourth with eight touchdown burns. He also has team highs of 40 catches for 505 yards and seven scores.

No. 7 Texas Tech (6-0, 3-0 Big 12) at Arizona State (4-2, 2-1)

Point Spread: Texas Tech -9.5
Meetings Since 1980: Texas Tech 3-2
Last Meeting: Texas Tech 30, Arizona State 22 (Sept. 21, 2024)

The last time Arizona State hosted Texas Tech was on Sept. 10, 2016, when the Sun Devils pulled out a 68-55 win. ASU’s Kalen Ballage tied an NCAA record (all divisions) with 48 points scored (eight TDs) in the win, while TTU’s Patrick Mahomes threw for 540 yards in defeat.

The Red Raiders have won all six games this season by at least 24 points. That is tied for the longest streak to begin a season by any team in Big 12 conference history with Baylor in 2015.

Arizona State’s Jeff Sims went 18 for 38 with 124 yards passing in last week’s loss to Utah, playing for the injured Sam Leavitt. Before Sims, the last Big 12 QB to have a game with that many attempts and so few passing yards was Iowa State’s Waye Terry in 2003 versus Colorado.

No. 22 Memphis (6-0, 2-0 American) at UAB (2-4, 0-3)

Point Spread: Memphis -21.5
Meetings Since 1980: UAB 10-7
Last Meeting: Memphis 53, UAB 18 (Nov. 16, 2024)

Memphis has won its last three games against UAB, with each victory coming by at least 24 points. The Tigers were 4-10 against the Blazers before that stretch.

Memphis has started 6-0 for the fourth time in program history (2015, 1961, 1938). The Tigers won their seventh game in 2015 (started 8-0) and 1938 (went 10-0).

Saturday Night’s Games

No. 8 Oregon (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten) at Rutgers (3-3, 0-3)

Point Spread: Oregon -17.5
Meetings Since 1980: None
Last Meeting: None

The Scarlet Knights rank 13th in the FBS with 309.0 passing yards per game, while the Ducks allow 138.7 pass yards per game (fifth in FBS).

Oregon’s loss to Indiana in Week 7 marked the first time it had fewer passing yards, rushing yards and takeaways than its opponent since Week 9, 2018, at Arizona (lost 44-15).

Washington State (3-3) at No. 18 Virginia (5-1)

Point Spread: Virginia -17.5
Meetings Since 1980: None
Last Meeting: None

The Cougars are visiting an Eastern Time Zone opponent for the first time since 2015 (Rutgers).

The Cavaliers have won four straight games within a single season for the first time since 2021 and haven’t won five in a row since 2007 (seven games). Virginia has also won its first four home games of a season for the first time since 2019 (went 7-0).

No. 21 Texas (4-2, 1-1 SEC) at Kentucky (2-3, 0-3)

Point Spread: Texas -12.5
Meetings Since 1980: Texas 1-0
Last Meeting: Texas 31, Kentucky 14 (Nov. 23, 2024)

Texas has not suffered back-to-back losses to unranked teams since it lost three straight in Weeks 10-12, 2021. Kentucky has lost eight consecutive conference games, the school’s longest streak since it dropped 17 straight between 2012 and 2014.

Arch Manning’s 71.5 well-thrown percentage and 6.96 pickable pass percentage (PKP%) are much worse than the FBS averages. In fact, his PKP% is fourth-worst in the FBS among those with at least 80 attempts.

Parker Livingston, who leads the Longhorns with 308 receiving yards (on 15 catches), ranks second in the FBS with a 56.7 big-play percentage. Our big play metric is a weighted formula that shows how often a receiver generates “big plays” (20+ yard burns or burn-touchdowns).

No. 11 Tennessee (5-1, 2-1 SEC) at No. 6 Alabama (5-1, 3-0)

Point Spread: Alabama -8.5
Meetings Since 1980: Alabama 28-16-1
Last Meeting: Alabama 24, Tennessee 17 (Oct. 19, 2024)

Alabama looks to become the third SEC team in the last 45 years to defeat an AP-ranked opponent in four straight regular-season games (2016 Alabama, 1983 Auburn).

Volunteers RB DeSean Bishop, who has a team-high 481 rushing yards and is tied for the lead with five touchdowns, ranks fourth in average yards gained after contact (3.57).

Tennessee is 11th in the country with a 48.8% run success rate, and Alabama hasn’t been great against the run with the 11th-ranked success rate allowed in the SEC (36.4%).

No. 20 USC (5-1) at No. 13 Notre Dame (4-2)

Point Spread: Notre Dame -9.5
Meetings Since 1980: Notre Dame 25-18-1
Last Meeting: Notre Dame 49, USC 35 (Nov. 30, 2024)

USC won eight straight games against Notre Dame from 2002-09, winning these games by an average margin of 24.5 points. Since then, the Fighting Irish are 10-4 against the Trojans, the most wins by any FBS school against USC over this span.

Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price teamed for 152 yards and two touchdowns on 33 carries in last week’s 36-7 win over NC State. Love leads the team with 530 yards and eight scores, while Price has 422 yards and seven scores.

USC’s Jayden Maiava is averaging 10.83 yards per attempt this season, the highest average in the FBS (minimum 15 attempts per team game). Maiava has 30 completions of 20 or more yards this season, the only FBS QB with more is Notre Dame’s CJ Carr (31).

Florida Atlantic (3-3, 2-1 American) at No. 19 South Florida (5-1, 2-0)

Point Spread: South Florida -21.5
Meetings Since 1980: South Florida 4-2
Last Meeting: South Florida 44, Florida Atlantic 21 (Nov. 1, 2024)

All six matchups between Florida Atlantic and South Florida have been decided by double digits, with USF winning four of those games. The Bulls won last season’s matchup after outscoring the Owls by 30 points in the second half (37-7).

South Florida has outscored its opponents 209-73 in the third quarter since the beginning of last season. That’s the third-best differential (+136) in the FBS during that span (Ohio State, +171; Notre Dame, +150).

No. 16 Missouri (5-1, 1-1 SEC) at Auburn (3-3, 0-3)

Point Spread: Missouri -1.5
Meetings Since 1980: Auburn 3-1
Last Meeting: Missouri 21, Auburn 17 (Oct. 19, 2024)

Missouri has won 21 consecutive games against unranked opponents, the third-longest active streak in the FBS (Georgia – 45, Oregon – 35). This includes its win over Auburn last season.

Missouri running back Ahmad Hardy ranks second in the FBS with 782 yards, is tied for third with nine touchdowns and ranks seventh with 3.29 average yards after contact. But Auburn is second in the SEC with a 23.7% run success rate allowed.

Auburn’s Jackson Arnold has been sacked 21 times, which is tied for the second most in the FBS. Missouri, meanwhile, has the second-highest pressure rate (43.9%) and fourth-best sack rate (9.0%) in the SEC.

No. 23 Utah (5-1, 2-1 Big 12) at No. 15 BYU (6-0, 3-0)

Point Spread: Utah -3.0
Meetings Since 1980: BYU 21-20
Last Meeting: BYU 22, Utah 21 (Nov. 9, 2024)

BYU has won the last two games in the Holy War after Utah won the previous nine. BYU hasn’t defeated Utah in three straight games since a four-game run from 1989 to 1992. The last matchup in which both teams were ranked in the AP Poll was in 2009 (26-23 win by No. 18 BYU over No. 22 Utah in overtime).

BYU RB LJ Martin has recorded at least 90 scrimmage yards in each of his last eight games going back to last season, the longest active streak in the FBS. The last BYU player with a longer streak was Austin Collie in 2008 (11 straight).

No. 24 Cincinnati (5-1, 3-0 Big 12) at Oklahoma State (1-5, 0-3)

Point Spread: Cincinnati -21.5
Meetings Since 1980: Oklahoma State 2-0
Last Meeting: Oklahoma State 45, Cincinnati 13 (Oct. 28, 2023)

Cincinnati is making its first appearance in the AP Poll since November 2022. This comes after the Bearcats started 3-0 in Big 12 play; they had won just four Big 12 games (4-14) over their first two years in the conference (2023, 2024).

Oklahoma State has lost 13 straight games against conference opponents, tied with Nevada
for the second-longest active losing streak in the FBS (Mississippi State – 14).

Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. Follow us on X, Threads, Facebook, Bluesky and Instagram for more!