Underdog Showdown: Can No. 20 USC Upset No. 13 Notre Dame in a Battle of Titans?

Saturday night’s spotlight in South Bend is set to blaze as the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-2) prepare to face off against the USC Trojans (5-1) in a matchup that’s more than just a game — it’s a playoff crossroads. The Irish, having clawed their way back from an 0-2 start with four straight victories, stand at a critical juncture: a triumph over USC propels them toward a coveted playoff berth, while a stumble could abruptly end postseason dreams. Meanwhile, USC strides into this battle fresh off a commanding 31-13 upset of #15 Michigan, looking to climb even higher in the rankings and bolster their own playoff hopes, though the road ahead remains daunting with tough trips to Nebraska and Oregon looming. On the field, two of college football’s brightest commander-in-chiefs — Notre Dame’s CJ Carr and USC’s Jayden Maiava — will duel under the lights in the 96th edition of this storied rivalry, with the legendary Jeweled Shillelagh gleaming in the balance. Gear up as we break down all the numbers, narratives, and nuances that make this Top 20 showdown one you won’t want to miss. LEARN MORE

Saturday Night in South Bend, the Fighting Irish (4-2) host the Trojans of USC (5-1) in a true playoff elimination game.

Notre Dame has reeled off four consecutive wins after starting 0-2 (the losses were by a combined 4 points to #2 Miami and #4 Texas A&M). With USC being Notre Dame’s only remaining opponent that is currently ranked, a win Saturday would put the Irish in a great position to reach the playoff. A loss to the Trojans, though, could very well end Notre Dame’s postseason chances.

The Trojans enter off a marquee 31-13 home win over then #15 Michigan and are now 5-1. A win Saturday would move them further up the rankings and also put them in good position for a playoff berth. A loss, however, makes securing that spot in the postseason extremely unlikely as USC must still travel to #25 Nebraska and to #8 Oregon.

This game matches up two of the top QBs in the country (as well as fringe Heisman Trophy contenders) in Notre Dame’s CJ Carr and USC’s Jayden Maiava.

This is the 96th meeting in this historic rivalry. With the coveted Jeweled Shillelagh on the line, lets dive into this Top 20 matchup between classic rivals and gather all the numbers we can from both sides of the ball.

Game Details and How to watch No. 20 USC at No. 13 Notre Dame

• Date: Saturday, October 18th, 2025
• Time: 7:30PM Eastern
• Site: Sanford Stadium
• City: Notre Dame, IN
• TV/Streaming: NBC/Peacock

Game Odds for No. 20 USC at No. 13 Notre Dame

The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-325), USC Trojans (+260)
• Spread: Notre Dame -9.5 (-112)
• Total: 60.5 points

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Head Coach: Marcus Freeman
2025 Record: 4-2
Offense Ranking: 4
Defense Ranking: 23
Strength of Schedule: 41

Notre Dame enters midseason at 4–2 and ranked 9th in SP+, anchored by one of the nation’s most impressive offenses under OC Mike Denbrock. The Irish rank 4th in Offensive SP+ thanks to a 47.6% success rate (28th) and a national-best 11.6% of plays gaining 20+ yards, while averaging 7.18 yards per play (10th) and 3.21 points per drive (20th). Defensively, Chris Ash’s unit remains solid at 23rd in SP+, holding opponents to 5.34 yards per play and ranking 41st in 3-and-out percentage, though it has struggled in pass coverage ranking 69th in yards per dropback. HC Marcus Freeman’s squad still has a 36.3% chance to make the CFP despite narrow early losses to Miami and Texas A&M.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish Offense

Notre Dame’s offense has been among the most efficient and explosive units in the nation, ranking 4th in Offensive SP+. The Irish average 7.18 yards per play (10th nationally), boast a 47.6% success rate (28th), lead the country in plays gaining 20+ yards (11.6%) and have the ability to strike quickly both through the air and on the ground. Quarterback play led by first year starter CJ Carr has been elite, with the Irish ranking 5th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (13.1) and 9th in EPA per dropback. Concerningly, the rebuilt offensive line has allowed pressure on an embarrassing 3.7% of dropbacks (122nd). A physical run game averaging 5.2 yards per carry and ranking 15th in rushing EPA complements their outstanding pass attack. Notre Dame boasts a complete offensive profile that is capable of sustaining drives or flipping the field with explosive plays.

Notre Dame Player to Watch on Offense: QB CJ Carr

CJ Carr has been highly efficient in his first six starts, completing 66.5% of his passes for 1,622 yards and a 13-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio, demonstrating both poise and vertical precision. He’s averaging an excellent 15.5 yards per completion and 9.2 yards per dropback, producing an 11.0 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A) and a strong 83.6 Total QBR. Carr has handled pressure reasonably well with a 5.4% sack rate, maintaining composure on longer-developing plays and showing accuracy when throwing downfield. As a rusher, Carr adds modest mobility with 75 yards and one touchdown on 15 carries and a 22.3% pressure-to-sack rate.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish Defense

Notre Dame’s defense ranks 23rd in Defensive SP+, built around steady efficiency and physical front-seven play under coordinator Chris Ash. The Irish are allowing just 5.34 yards per play (57th nationally) and a 40.8% success rate (71st) while holding opponents to 28.9 yards per drive (49th) and only 1.81 points per drive (59th). The Irish pass rush has been inconsistent with a 6.3% sack rate and 30.5% pressure rate, though explosive plays remain a concern as opponents gain 20+ yards on 6.8% of plays (89th) and average 11.6 yards per successful play (46th). Anchored by a Top 30 rush defense allowing just 4.1 yards per carry and 2.12 yards after contact (18th), Notre Dame’s defense has been much more effective during their current 4-game win streak than it was against Miami and Texas A&M.

Notre Dame Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Boubacar Traore

Boubacar Traore has emerged as Notre Dame’s most disruptive edge presence, producing 20 tackles, 6.0 havoc plays, and 5.5 sacks through six games while maintaining a 100% tackle success rate. His 7.6% pressure rate on 118 pass-rush snaps isn’t an imposing mark, but he’s converting those pressures at an elevated rate. Traore’s blend of power and technique has made him one of the Irish’s most consistent finishers, generating 4.5 tackles for loss and four run stops while showing strong discipline against the run (90% of his tackles coming on run plays). Overall, he has been a cornerstone of Notre Dame’s defensive front, balancing edge containment versus the run with consistent backfield disruption.

USC Trojans

Head Coach: Lincoln Riley
2025 Record: 5-1
Offense Ranking: 1
Defense Ranking: 45
Strength of Schedule: 25

USC sits at 5-1 (3-1 Pac-12) and ranks 14th overall in SP+, powered by the nation’s #1 offense and a defense that has made notable strides under 2nd-year DC D’Anton Lynn. The Trojans’ offense leads the FBS in both yards per play (8.31) and points per drive (4.11), pairing elite efficiency (57.6% success rate, 1st) with frequent chunk plays (11.0% of plays gain 20+ yards, 3rd nationally). Defensively, USC remains volatile—ranking 45th in SP+ and allowing 5.62 yards per play—but has shown stronger tackling fundamentals (92.5% tackle success rate, 2nd) and a Top 25 havoc rate (18.6%) up front. With Lincoln Riley’s dangerous offensive system and a defense finally trending upward, USC projects around 9–10 wins and maintains an outside shot at a CFP berth (26.7% odds).

The USC Trojans Offense

USC’s offense has been nothing short of spectacular, ranking No. 1 nationally in SP+, yards per play (8.31), and points per drive (4.11) while leading the country in success rate (57.6%). The Trojans have achieved elite balance—ranking 4th in yards per rush (6.6) and 3rd in yards per dropback (10.1)—behind a disciplined offensive line that allows sacks on just 2% of dropbacks. Their precise passing attack converts 73.1% of throws with a Top 5 EPA per dropback (0.53), while the ground game complements it with a 55.5% rushing success rate and explosive gains (12.4% stuff rate, 5th-lowest nationally). Lincoln Riley and QB Jayden Maiava have executed his gameplan flawlessly, with USC looking nearly impossible to slow down over the first half of the season.

USC Player To Watch on Offense: WR Makai Lemon

Wide receiver Makai Lemon has been USC’s most reliable target, catching 44 of 55 passes (80%) for 682 yards and 6 touchdowns, averaging 15.5 yards per reception and an elite 12.4 yards per target. His 66.7% success rate and 65.9% first-down conversion rate highlight his efficiency in sustaining drives, while still maintaining explosive potential on intermediate and deep routes (27% of targets 20+ yards downfield). Lemon has thrived in Lincoln Riley’s versatile passing system, lining up both outside (36%) and in the slot (41%) without recording a single drop all season. Combining route precision, strong hands, and consistent production at all depths, Lemon has emerged as the centerpiece of USC’s high-efficiency aerial attack.

The USC Trojans Defense

USC’s defense, ranked 45th in SP+, has shown notable improvement under D’Anton Lynn, combining better tackling (92.5% tackle success rate, 2nd nationally) with an aggressive scheme that is generating an 18.6% havoc rate. The Trojans’ defensive line ranks 14th in DL havoc rate (8.5%), showing the ability to disrupt plays though the unit still allows 5.62 yards per play (83rd) and struggles with down-to-down consistency (41.5% success rate allowed, 80th). USC’s biggest strength lies in pressure generation—ranking 16th in pressure rate (37.3%) and 7th in sacks per dropback (9.2%)—yet explosive plays and zone coverage lapses remain issues (8.0 yards per dropback vs. zone, 115th). Overall, the defense has taken a step forward in physicality and disruption, but its inconsistency against more advanced offenses continues to limit USC’s championship ceiling.

USC Player to Watch on Defense: LB Eric Gentry

Linebacker Eric Gentry has been the heartbeat of USC’s defense, leading the team with 39 tackles (29 solo) while producing a dominant 9.0 havoc plays, 6.0 tackles for loss, and 3.0 sacks through six games. His 90.7% tackle efficiency and 76.9% run-stop rate underscore his consistency in the middle, pairing range and physicality to anchor the Trojans’ front seven. As a pass rusher, Gentry boasts an elite 24.0% pressure rate on 25 rushes—creating three sacks and one forced fumble—ranking among the most efficient blitzing linebackers in the country. Combining length, instincts, and versatility, Gentry has evolved into the defense’s tone-setter and a key reason for USC’s improvement under DC D’Anton Lynn.

No. 13 Notre Dame vs. No. 20 USC team stats, betting trends

• Notre Dame has won 5 of its last 6 games against USC
• USC is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games as an underdog
• The Over is 12-8 in USC’s and Notre Dame’s last 10 games combined

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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): CJ Carr UNDER 11.5 rushing yards

ND has been very effective on the ground, ranking 15th in EPA/rush behind their talented RB tandem of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. However pro-style QB CJ Carr has been noticeably averse to running unless forced to, rushing 24 times for 16 yards and a TD on the year. Over his last 5 games, Carr has cleared his 11.5 rushing yards line just once in that span. With ND’s offensive line allowing the nation’s 14th-highest pressure rate and ranking 81st in sacks-per-pressure, I expect USC and their impressive 9.2% sack rate (7th) to be able to harass Carr into 2+ sacks, which would almost assuredly mean Carr goes Under 11.5 rushing yards.

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports): USC +9.5 and ML (+240)

Last year, Notre Dame led in the fourth quarter, 35-28, then USC threw an interception, and the Irish ran it back 99 yards. On the very next drive, Notre Dame got a 100-yard interception return for a touchdown, so the game was closer than the 49-35 score indicates.

USC has upgraded at QB with Jayden Maiava and has one of the best WRs in the country in Makai Lemon. A theme for the Irish defensively has been takeaways with seven interceptions over the last three weeks and 10 during the four-game win streak — it’s hard to see that continue here. If USC can slow Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price down or make CJ Carr look like a true freshman, then USC can win this game with their advantageous havoc rates.

***

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between USC and Notre Dame

• Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
• Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the USC Trojans at +9.5.
• Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the under on the Game Total of 60.5.

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

• Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
• Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
• Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
• Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)
• Eric Froton (@CFFroton)

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